Revisiting the Juan Soto Blockbuster
Juan Soto of the San Diego Padres (Associated Press)
Believe it or not, the Padres and the Nationals have the same record on August 28th, 2023, which is a little over a year after the two organizations completed one of the largest trades in recent history. The Padres got 2.5 years of club control for a superstar outfielder in Juan Soto, as well as an expiring contract on 1B Josh Bell. San Diego’s offense improved drastically overnight and they were able to justify the deal by acquiring multiple years of control for a top 10 player in baseball. Shrewd as ever, Nationals GM Mike Rizzo deliberated with AJ Preller, making and breaking down multiple packages until they could finally get a verbal commitment from one another.
Washington Nationals traded LF Juan Soto and 1B Josh Bell to San Diego Padres for 1B Luke Voit, LHP MacKenzie Gore, SS C.J. Abrams, OF Robert Hassell III, OF James Wood and RHP Jarlin Susana.
The Padres:
San Diego was making a push back in 2022, but it didn’t work out. They made a deep run into the NLCS, when they succumbed the Phillies 4-1 in a best of seven series. The Phillies hit 10 home runs in 5 games, while the Padres hit .202 and pitched to a 5.36 ERA. At this point, rental piece Josh Bell is gone via free agency, but you still have two years of Juan Soto going into 2023. It’s also worth noting Bell was terrible in the short time he spent in San Diego, putting together a .192/.316/.271 slash line over 53 regular season games.
After signing Xander Bogaerts in December 2022 , the lineup looked like it could be the best offense in baseball. As we come to the end of August 2023, San Diego’s season is already over despite Juan Soto having a great year (148 wRC+, .260/.400/.485). They have one more season of Juan Soto. With seemingly little progress for an extension, free agency seems more and more likely. Considering the package Rizzo received from AJ for Soto and Bell, you can’t really look at this deal as anything other than a massive disappointment. Juan Soto has significantly slipped from a 159 wRC+, .291/.427/.538 as a National to a 143 wRC+, .253/.397/.458 in Padres colors, but the failure of this deal has more to do with the lack of success for the major league club as a whole.
Padres trade grade: C-
The Nationals:
On the Nationals side, Robert Hassell Jr was the blue chip prospect when this deal went down in 2022, but things have changed. Hassell Jr was 20 years old, raking at a .299/.379/.467 in Fort Wayne (high A). He got called up to AA shortly after the trade and has consistently struggled there for two years (.218/.311/.314). The 32.4% K rate in 2023 is a major concern, as is the well under average .104 ISO. Scouts think he might be able to stay in center, but it won’t matter if he doesn’t figure it out at the plate. He now ranks #8 in the Nationals system, but will continue to drop unless things change. James Woods, on the other hand, has gone from an ancillary piece of the package to the central piece. He was recently bumped from the #1 spot in the system for 2023 second overall pick, Dylan Crews, as Crews grades as a 65 overall on the scouting scale. Woods is no slouch himself, grading as a 60 overall, despite only hitting .228 in AA ball. Prior to the recent callup, he was tearing up high A, slashing .293/.392/.580. Woods has a chance to be a true 5 tool player, especially if he can stay in center field. Even if he ends up in right field, he projects as a multi-time All Star and an above average Major League ballplayer.
MacKenzie Gore has improved his K rate from 23.8% in 2022 to 26.3% in 2023, but his home run rate has soared from 0.9 HR/9 to 1.63 HR/9 and his opponent barrel rate has jumped 9.7% to 12%. When you add in his high 10.6 career BB%, you get expected ERA’s above 5.00. Though still 24, it is concerning that Gore has a high HR rate and walk rate. Gore looks more like a 5th starter at this point than the front end guy he was expected to be. The other arm included in the deal, Jarlin Susana, is still only 19 years old, but does have a plus fastball and a nice slider. His command is graded as a 20 on the scale by Fangraphs, which makes him more of a project and gives him significant reliever risk. He’s currently in A ball and carries a 5.14 ERA. Veteran 1B, Luke Voit, was predominantly a way for Preller to offset some salary, and was non-tendered at the end of the year. Last but certainly not least, CJ Abrams was drafted 6th overall back 2019 and had stalled a bit as a prospect prior to the deal. Abrams has worked to increase his BB% rate from 1.7% in 2022 to 4.3% in 2023. His power has increased from a .065 ISO to .162 this season, which is a significant jump. Still only 22 years old, Abrams has improved at shortstop by a good margin and looks to have the potential to stay at shortstop long term. He has 80 grade speed, which gives him the floor of a role player, but the ceiling of a star.
Nationals trade grade: A
*Stats are as of 8/28/23