Are Monarchies Back in Style?
Royals Mascot Sluggerrr (MLB)
At the time of writing, the KC Royals are first in spending among American League teams this offseason. I can’t say for sure, but it's quite possible this is the first time the Royals have ever been the “big spender” this late in the winter. The Royals have spent $105M, including $77M on their starting rotation by acquiring Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo. $13M was spent on their bullpen, acquiring Will Smith and Chris Stratton, in addition to adding Hunter Renfroe to the lineup for another $13M over two years and adding Garrett Hampson as a backup infielder. There’s blood in the water in the AL central, and JJ Picollo is seizing the opportunity. The White Sox are nearing fire sale mode, as their competitive window is closed for the time being. Chris Gez wants to position them to compete by 2026 or 2027, if all goes well. The Twins were the division winners in 2023, but made it pretty clear they intend on clutching their purse strings tight both via press conference and their zero dollars spent on free agents so far.
The Guardians went out and got Austin Hedges for $4M as a backup catcher, but don’t seem to have plans for any top free agents this offseason either. That leaves the Tigers, who have actually also had one of the more active offseasons in the American League. The Tigers (below) have added both Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty to a rotation that just lost Eduardo Rodriguez, Michael Lorenzen, and Matt Boyd. The Tigers ranked 26th in the MLB in 2023 with a .305 OBP, so the Mark Canha signing is a good fit and relatively affordable at $11.5M. The bullpen was firmly in the middle tier this past season, and adding Chafin is a good start. Even still, they could use one more bullpen arm before spring training kicks off. While these moves do help to field a competitive roster for Detroit, none of these clubs are projected to dominate this division. This creates a new window for the Royals to be competitive for the first time since they won the World Series in 2015.
The Tigers Free Agent Signings (Spotrac)
The Royals offense ranked 28th in the league with an 87 wRC+, while finishing next to last above the White Sox in walk rate at 6.9%. The addition of Hunter Renfroe will provide some power, but the Royals will likely be counting on breakout years from their young core. Nelson Velasquez hit 17 HR last year in only 53 games, while Vinnie Pasquantino has a career 121 wRC+ in the show, but hasn’t had a full season of being productive in the majors yet. Bobby Witt Jr. is their superstar, as a top 10 player in the league, and they have some pieces to put around him in this lineup. They have power hitters in captain Salvador Perez and left fielder MJ Melendez, who finished 96th percentile in exit velocity (93.2 MPH). The Royals do have some weaker hitters toward the bottom of their lineup in Isbel and Garcia, but both are premier defenders. With breakouts from guys like Velasquez, Fermin, and Vinnie, the Royals could be closer to a middle of the pack offense in 2024. If their starting rotation stays healthy and their bullpen holds up, that could be enough to compete in arguably the weakest division in the league.
Royals 2024 Depth Chart (Fangraphs)
On the pitching side of things, the Royals’ starting rotation finished 27th in the league with a 5.12 ERA last season. They were buoyed by Cole Ragans’ 2.64 ERA in 12 starts after the Chapman trade. JJ Picollo prioritized this area of the roster this Winter, by inking two starters to slot behind their new ace. Michael Wacha has a 127 ERA+ in the last two seasons, but also hasn’t started more than 24 games since 2017 and should project for 130 innings or so. Seth Lugo had a productive career as a reliever, before a successful transition to starter last season. Similar to Wacha, Lugo can probably be projected somewhere in the 130-140 inning range. Both guys might have overperformed a bit in the last few seasons, but they are both solid mid-rotation pieces. They have sinker baller Brady Singer in the #4 slot, while the 5th slot will be occupied by innings eater, Jordan Lyles. This rotation won’t be top 10, but it should be more stable than what the Royals had in 2023. If they can put up middle of the league production, they’ll be able to compete in the division. Assuming the Royals are still in the hunt at the trade deadline, KC’s front office can acquire a starter as a rental down the stretch.
2023 Team Bullpen Rankings (Fangraphs)
The Royals had a struggling offense, bottom tier rotation, and even a bottom tier bullpen in 2023. Their bullpen as a whole ranked last in the American League with a 5.23 ERA, and only got worse after dealing Chapman and Barlow. Adding Will Smith provides the Royals with a veteran reliever who has success as a closer, while Chris Stratton is consistent and durable, having appeared in at least 60 games in three consecutive seasons. Rookie James McArthur impressed with his stuff in 2023, while Carlos Hernandez had his moments. Ultimately, this bullpen with its current makeup will probably be a weakness for the club, but they’ll have an opportunity to add this winter and mid season if need be.
When looking at the Royals in a Postseason context, this bullpen leaves something to be desired. To truly make a meaningful October run, Picollo will have to go out and get a true #2 starter, especially if there are any injuries in the rotation. It’s 2023, so that’s a near guarantee in today’s MLB. This offense has upside this season, with young guys who could have breakout seasons. They’ll continue to build around their superstar, Bobby Witt Jr., as they reopen their competitive window with an eye on that AL central crown.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/
*Stats are as of 12/17/23