Who is Jung Hoo Lee, the Giants’ Biggest Signing since Arson Judge?
Jung Hoo Lee (CBS)
The Giants signed Carlos Correa to a massive deal in December 2022, only for the deal to fall apart at the seams because of the failed physical. Jon Heyman held the 2022 award for MLB tweet gaffe of the year when he tweeted Arson Judge to the Giants back last December. The Giants seemingly got their superstar. Two problems with that: Arson Judge doesn’t exist and Aaron Judge didn’t actually sign with the Giants. Now, finally in 2023, the Giants found a player that fans want to watch– Jung Hoo Lee.
Jon Heyman’s infamous tweet declaring Aaron Judge as a Giant
With Lee, they get a premium outfielder and former 2022 KBO MVP. His dad, Jong Beom, is also a former KBO MVP, and was known as “son of the wind” hence the moniker for Jung Hoo, “grandson of the wind”. Given Lee’s lack of power, I had projected Lee for closer to $50M over four years, and was certainly not expecting Lee to get a six-year deal. That said, the Giants had to make a move and get a premium player on the free agent market to show they can still attract talent and that they are looking to be competitive. Right now, they figure to slot Lee in centerfield, and at either leadoff or 7th in the lineup for SF. I’m okay with the $113M number, which does not include the posting fee of $18.725M, for a total expenditure of $131.725M over six years. My biggest issue with this deal is actually the player opt out, since it limits the upside for SF. If Lee is indeed a durable 3.0 fWAR player and shows he can hit in the majors, he’s probably opting out on what would be a bargain deal for Lee in years 5 and 6. If Lee underperforms, the Giants are on the hook for all six years. This a huge risk for the Giants as the upside is limited to those four years. To me, the number and the opt out shows how desperate the Giants and POBO (President of Baseball Operations) Farhan Zaidi are to get a premium free agent to play in SF. This deal, in addition to others, also shows the strength of the MLB market right now, with 5th starters getting $15M a year, and a kid from the KBO hitting well over nine figures without one major league at bat.
Jung Hoo Lee is 25, and was a career .340 hitter in the KBO. He’s likely to strike out less than 20% of the time, but probably won’t have much over the wall power. However, his ability to spray the ball all over the field fits well in a spacious park like Oracle. He also has plus speed, above average range, and a plus arm in the outfield. He hurt his ankle in late July before eventually getting surgery, but figures to rebound fine given his history and age. Lee projects as a 2.5 to 3.0 fWAR player, and figures to only be entering his prime at the age of 25. Steamer projects Lee for a 115 wRC+, without a BB/K ratio close to 1.0. If Lee plays premium center field defense and hits .290, this deal will be a good one for the Giants. There is much unknown, and there is a possibility that these kinds of results are 80th or even 90th percentile for Lee. If he’s either not as good of a defender as his reputation suggests or he can’t adjust to the high velo in the show, this contract could be a huge overpay for San Francisco.
Jung Hoo Lee Steamer 2024 Projections and KBO Stats (Fangraphs)
When projecting Lee in the majors, you can’t help but think of his good friend and Korean prince, Ha Seong Kim. Kim’s 4 year/$28M deal signed back on New Year's Eve 2020 is now one of baseball's biggest bargains. Not only is Kim a premium defender at 2B and SS, but he’s durable and stole 38 bases this year. Even more impressive, Kim posted a 112 wRC+, demonstrating that players from the KBO can transition to becoming above average major league hitters. He is also not the first one, just the most recent. Jung Ho Kang also made a successful transition from the KBO back in 2015, and finished third in Rookie of Year voting before succumbing to off the field issues. Kim had a career OPS of .866 in the KBO, compared to .708 in the MLB. If we extrapolate these conversion numbers to Jung Hoo, he has a career OPS of .898 and therefore projects for a .734 OPS (81.75% of his KBO OPS). If Lee puts up a .734 OPS and plays premium defense, he’ll be an impact addition for a Giants team that badly needs production from the center field position.
Ha-Seong Kim Career Stats (bRef)
Farhan Zaidi and the Giants front office wanted Correa, Judge, Carlos Rodon, and more recently, Shohei Ohtani. They didn’t get any of the superstars, but they do have an exciting international star in Lee. This signing immediately upgrades their defense, and also adds to the contact ability in the lineup, which is critical for a club that plays 81 games a year in Oracle Park. The club still has roughly $80M in space for 2024, before they hit that magical $237 CBT (competitive balance tax) number, and they need to add at least one starter, a bullpen arm, and some power to this lineup. Even still, Lee is a good start and shows the Giants fans that the front office is sincere in competing in the NL West.
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*Stats are as of 12/14/2023