Are the Dodgers In Trouble?
Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers (ESPN)
The Dodgers are 87-55, 13 games ahead of the NL West. They have two of the best players in baseball, including the probable 2nd place MVP candidate Mookie Betts. They also have a +172 run differential, good for 3rd in the MLB. Even still, there is some cause of concern. It started with Walker Buehler’s Tommy John surgery in August 2022. The Dodgers just announced they’re shutting Walker down for the rest of the season. This was a loss for the Dodgers in the 2022 postseason, considering Walker finished 4th in the NL Cy Young in 2021. On top of losing Walker for this postseason, the Dodgers have lost Julio Urias due to a domestic violence arrest a few weeks ago and won’t have him for the rest of the season as he remains on the MLB administration leave list. Urias was already having a down season (4.15 xERA), but it’s still a huge loss for a pitching staff that also lost Buehler.
Furthermore, the oft injured Dustin May had to get UCL surgery in July and Tony Gonsolin underwent Tommy John on the 1st of September. The rotation is decimated. Their current staff is: 1) Kershaw, LHP 2) Miller, RHP 3) Lynn, RHP 4) Pepiot, RHP 5) Stone, RHP. Michael Grove is also currently rehabbing in AAA, but was terrible in his 12 starts anyway (6.75 ERA as a starter). 35-year-old Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw is seeing career highs in barrel rate (8.5%) and hard hit rate (37.8%) dating back to when tracking started in 2015. His surface ERA of 2.61 is superb, but the underlying metrics (3.74 xERA) are more concerning. Bobby Miller has broken out in 2023, with a 3.59 ERA in the 2nd half of his rookie season, as well as a .284 wOBA mark since the AS break. Miller is only 24 but figures to be the Dodgers’ #2 starter this postseason.
After Kershaw and Miller, there is a large dropoff. Lance Lynn had the highest ERA in baseball when the Dodgers traded for him and had been solid before getting rocked for eight runs by the Marlins last week. The 2.25 HR/9 number may not be sustainable but it’s still a huge red flag if you’re considering starting him in October. Even the 4.86 xERA is below average, though much better than his actual 6.09 ERA. Pepiot and Stone have started a combined 12 games in their careers and really shouldn’t be relied on to make meaningful contributions against playoff caliber teams at this point in their careers. In three AAA seasons, Pepiot has a 3.99 ERA and a 10.8 K/9 while Gavin Stone has a 4.06 ERA and 11.1 K/9 over two seasons in AAA. Both guys have histories of productivity, but could be asked to take on a much larger role going forward. Thankfully the Dodgers have the pitching depth to survive four major injuries, but Kershaw’s decline and the reliance on rookie pitching is cause for concern in Los Angeles.
The Dodgers starters are 17th in the 2nd Half with a 4.64 ERA, but they are 23rd in the last 30 days with a 4.94 ERA. It’s not enough for the postseason and it puts too much pressure on the offense to score 5+ runs a game. Additionally, it taxes the bullpen and could result in the best bullpen in the MLB being overused. In the 2nd Half, the Dodgers rank #1 with a 2.40 bullpen ERA, but that won’t continue if guys like Graterol and Brasier are overused. Currently, the Dodgers are slated to play the winner of the Dbacks/Brewers series. They match up well vs Arizona, who also doesn’t have the best rotation. However, if they end up matching with Milwaukee, it could be problematic given the Brewers premium staff of Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta. The Braves are slated to match up against the winner of the Phillies/Cubs series and then theoretically would face the Dodgers if LAD can best Milwaukee/Arizona. The Braves have studs like Max Fried and Spencer Strider, so Kershaw and Miller will be going toe to toe with some of the top arms in the National League. This Dodgers offense has similar firepower to the Braves, as their 126 2nd H wRC+ is not far behind the Braves 131 wRC+ mark. The Braves rotation hasn’t performed well recently either (20th with a 4.70 2nd Half ERA), but their 1-2-3 of Fried, Strider, Morton is superior to the Dodgers (Kyle Wright is also healthy again for Atlanta). The large advantage for LAD in this matchup is their #1 bullpen vs an Atlanta bullpen 8th in ERA since the AS break (3.71). This may not be enough to balance the scales, but their dangerous offense and frugal bullpen makes them a threat to any team they face this postseason despite the gaps in their starting pitching staff.
*Stats are as of 9/11/23