Shota Imanaga to be posted? Here’s who should bid.
Shota Imanaga of the Yokohama DeNA BayStars (WBSC)
Per MLB Network's Jon Morosi, the Yokohama DeNA BayStars are going to post Shota Imanaga after his age 29 season, sporting a 2.81 ERA and 10.7 K/9 through 19 starts. Imanaga has also demonstrated he can pitch in big games, starting the championship game vs the USA in the World Baseball Classic. He won’t garner as much attention as fellow WBC starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto, mainly because Yamamoto is four years younger. Some have speculated Shota could see a similar contract to Kodai Senga’s last offseason, when Senga signed with the Mets for $75M over 5 years. The contract looks like a bargain for New York at this point, and Imanaga has a similar arsenal to Senga, but doesn’t throw as hard. Senga has averaged 96 MPH on his fastball this season, while Imanaga’s fastball sits in the 92-94 MPH range.
Shota throws a fastball, cutter, splitter, and curveball and knows how to mix up his arsenal. Imagaga also doesn’t give up many free passes, with 1.5 BB/9 this season for Yokohama. He’s in the middle of his prime, and projects as a #2 or #3 starter in the MLB, similar to Senga (3.62 xERA in the MLB). He’s consistently productive and throws left-handed, so he’ll have at least a few suitors making a serious attempt to add him to their rotation. Here are six teams who would benefit from being involved in the posting with Yokohama for his services.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are competing in the AL East against two dominant teams, the O’s and the Rays, as well as two competitive teams in the Red Sox and the Yankees. Despite the downfall of Alex Manoah, the Jays are 2nd in MLB with a 3.77 rotation ERA. 2023 Alek Manoah gives up a ton of home runs (1.55 HR/9) and also walks a ton of guys (14.2%). He could find his 2022 form again, but I doubt it. Toronto also loses former Cy Young winner, Hyun Jin Ryu, to free agency this offseason. Ryu had some issues staying healthy, undergoing UCL surgery on his left elbow in June 2022. In 2023, he’s been solid in his seven starts (3.60 xERA), just in time to hit the market having proven he can still get it done. The Jays do have Kikuchi for another season, but they could still use a 2nd lefty in this rotation.
Projected 2024 rotation with Imanaga:
1) Gausman, RHP 2) Imanaga, LHP 3) Berrios, RHP 4) Kikuchi, LHP 5) Bassitt, RHP
Texas Rangers
Texas is another team in a tough division, with Seattle and Houston competing with the Rangers in a tight AL West race. The Rangers had a white hot 1st half, despite losing Jacob DeGrom to Tommy John Surgery six starts into a $185M contract. The wheels have fallen off here lately, with the bullpen getting national attention for costing the team so many games. Whatever the result is this year for the Rangers, this is clearly a very good team. They will lose Martin Perez and Jordan Montgomery this offseason, who coincidentally are two of their three left handed starters. Andrew Heaney is under contract for 2024, but hasn’t had a great 2023 (4.59 xERA).
Projected 2024 rotation with Imanaga:
1) DeGrom, RHP 2) Scherzer, RHP 3) Imanaga, LHP 4) Eovaldi, RHP 5) Dunning, RHP
6) Heaney, LHP
I do see this as unlikely, mostly because we still don’t have Jon Gray in here, who is under team control for two more years. Still, Gray is right handed, and Heaney is not a great lefty. Imanaga makes even more sense when you think about a potential playoff rotation (DeGrom, Scherzer, Imanaga, Eovaldi).
Arizona Diamondbacks
The DBacks have a solid 1-2-3 with Brandon Pfaadt really starting to pitch well recently. Arizona ranks 20th this year in rotation ERA at 4.58, but has new upside with the way Pfaadt has been pitching. Zac Gallen has a 3.31 ERA but a less stellar 4.14 xERA. Still, he’s been a consistent frontline starter since he came into the league in 2019. Merrill Kelly is a solid mid rotation guy, overperforming with a 3.22 ERA but has a 4.03 xERA, similar to Gallen. In 49 2nd Half innings. Pfaadt has a 4.41 ERA and .318 wOBA, which are middle rotation numbers. Arizona will presumably plug him in at the 4 spot in the rotation. 26 year old lefty Tommy Henry will likely be penciled in at the 5th starter in 2024 after posting a 4.29 xERA in 16 starts this season.
Projected 2024 rotation with Imanaga:
1) Gallen, RHP 2) Kelly, RHP 3) Imanaga, LHP 4) Pfaadt, RHP 5) Henry, LHP
San Diego Padres
The San Diego Padres are 3rd in rotation ERA this season with a 3.82 mark, and that’s largely because of ace Blake Snell. He’s got a 2.52 ERA, compared to a much different 3.98 expected ERA. Padres will likely lose him to free agency, and fellow lefty Rich Hill is just a rental at 42 years old. Imanaga would give a huge boost to the rotation behind Jose Musgrove and Yu Darvish.
Projected 2024 rotation with Imanaga:
1) Musgrove, RHP 2) Darvish, RHP 3) Imanaga, LHP 4) Wacha, RHP 5) Lugo, RHP
Los Angeles Dodgers
Similar to the Padres, the Dodgers are losing Julio Urias and potentially Clayton Kershaw as well. The Dodgers have an identical staff ERA to the Dbacks, 4.58. This offseason presents an opportunity to replace Urias and build depth for the 2024 rotation. Kershaw’s been solid this year despite declining ability (3.73 xERA) , and Julio Urias was having a down year (4.15 xERA) before the domestic violence incident ended his season. Bobby Miller has emerged as a future Cy Young candidate and frontline starter, putting up a 3.60 xERA in his rookie season. Dodgers have had a rash of injuries to the staff, namely Walker Buehler and Dustin May (out until summer 2024).
Projected 2024 rotation with Imanaga:
1) Buehler, RHP 2) Miller, RHP 3) Imanaga, LHP 4) Pepiot, RHP 5) Sheehan, RHP
Baltimore Orioles
The O’s have seen decent production from their young guys, like Grayson Rodriguez (2.85 ERA in 2nd Half). The staff is currently 15th with a 4.37 ERA, and currently sports 5 righties and no lefties. Kyle Bradish has also been solid (3.87 xERA), while deadline acquisition Jack Flaherty has a 7.16 ERA in six starts. Baltimore should have gone for Montgomery or E-Rod at the deadline, but they have a chance to right that ship by penning Imanaga this offseason. They have an all right handed rotation, and could use a lefty veteran like Shota.
Projected 2024 rotation with Imanaga:
1) Rodriguez, RHP 2) Imanaga, LHP 3) Wells, RHP 4) Bradish, RHP 5) Kremer, RHP
*Stats are as of 9/10/23