Should Mike Trout Be Traded?
Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels (Getty Images/Ringer Illustration)
As we all know, the Angels went all in at the trade deadline only to lose seven games in a row. Their playoff push was dead on arrival and now the opportunity to get some real prospects for Ohtani is gone. They traded away prospects such as Edgar Quero only to put both Giolito and Lopez on waivers a month later. Then they attempted to get under the luxury tax by cutting bait on all their rentals just to fail at that as well. They’re still $2M above the CBT, mostly due to the fact that Randal Grichuk went unclaimed by all 29 teams. Ohtani has an oblique injury following the UCL tear and looks like he’ll leave the Angels without playing a single playoff game in his career.
When Ohtani is officially gone, where does this leave the Angels? Even with the best player in baseball, they are 15.5 games back in the AL West with a -69 run differential. The farm system is also not great and has gotten worse by trading away solid prospects like Edgar Quero and Ky Bush. The Angels called up top prospects Nolan Schanuel and Kyren Paris straight from AA, despite the fact Nolan was only drafted a few months ago. These two call-ups may pass the time for Angels fans, but it is highly unlikely they will move the needle for 2024 and onward. The Angels need more to have a truly competitive roster and they’re losing the best player in the league after this month. Since they are at least three or four players away from contention, should they trade Mike Trout while he still has some value?
Trout originally signed for 12 years, $426.5M from 2019-2030. Since then, Trout has hit 285/.402/.603 and can still play center field. The caveat is that Trout has only averaged 85 games in this timeframe. Playing a little over half of your team's games is not sufficient when you’re being paid over $35 million a year. Despite this, teams would certainly be interested in Trout since he’s a stud when he does play. It’s unlikely they would be willing to pay the rest of the contract with no strings attached, but the Angels might be able to eat a portion of the contract and shed a major obligation for a team that’s not competitive and hasn’t been for Trout’s entire career.
Trout is a right handed center fielder, who probably should be moved to a corner to lessen the defensive burden and keep him healthy. He’s 32 years old and could profile at any of the three outfield positions. He’s a top or middle of the order bat on any major league team and has hit 2nd or 3rd for the majority of his MLB career. Since 2019, Captain America has averaged 4.1 WAR despite only playing 85 games a year. At the Fangraphs value of $8M/win, that makes him a roughly $33M player. Of course, we have to factor in regression for the second half of this contract, particularly given Mike’s injury history. Even with regression and injuries, I think it’s reasonable to assume Trout can average somewhere in the range of $24M value over the remainder of his contract (3 WAR a season). Trout is owed a bit over $248M and I would expect the acquiring organization to take on at least $170M of the $248M to get a premium, all time great player. If the Cubs lose Cody Bellinger this offseason and the Mariners want a replacement for Teoscar in right field, Trout would add a serious punch to either of those lineups. I can also see Trout in Milwaukee, with several left handed hitters in the lineup that could use protection from an upper tier hitter like Trout. The Giants missed out on Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa, and Carlos Rodon last offseason; could they go all in for a 3X MVP and 11X All Star?
Similar to what Steve Cohen did at the trade deadline, the Angels could eat a ton of money to try and get some legit top 100 prospects for Trout. Their second option is to see how much money a large payroll team would be willing to take on and how close they can get to the $248M number. Even playing half the season, Trout is an instant difference maker for a playoff contender and plays at an 8 WAR pace. Their third and final option is to do their best to retain Ohtani and add some major pieces this offseason. They don’t have the prospect depth to bail them out at the major league level, so they’ll need to trade their way or pay their way to the playoffs in 2024. If Angels owner Arte Moreno is willing to, it seems eating the money and essentially buying prospects would be the best path. This will strengthen the farm system overnight and put the organization back on the rails to be competitive again. Knowing the Angels, they’ll likely opt to either shed as much of the contract as possible or hold Trout, not trade for anybody, and win 75 games next year.
*Stats are as of 9/7/23