NL MVP Race: Mookie vs Acuna JR
Mookie Betts of the Los Angeles Dodgers (ESPN)
The NL MVP race is now down to Mookie and Acuna Jr, after their respective teams had two MVP candidates a few weeks ago. Matt Olson and Freddie Freeman both looked to be hanging in there, but were at a disadvantage playing 1B instead of the outfield. Olson has only hit .245/.296/.408 in the last 14 days, while Freddie seemed ahead of his teammate Mookie, before Mookie had the best month of his career. Now that the MVP is essentially a two horse race, we can look at the merits of voting for each guy with a few core stats:
wRC+ Edge: Mookie
Mookie is hitting .392. His 7.7 fWAR is heavily weighted in his 2nd half performance, particularly in August. Mookie went from a fringe MVP candidate to a head to head contender by hitting .455/.516/.839 in August, which brought his 2023 wRC+ all the way up to 175. Betts has Acuna beat by this key metric,175-167, a stat that measures how much better you are as a hitter than everyone else. Both guys ranking above 165 indicates how much better they are than the league average and the huge role each of them play in their respective lineups.
fWAR Edge: Mookie
fWAR loves Mookie for the MVP with a 7.7 fWAR and actually has Acuna tied for 2nd in the NL (6.8 fWAR) with Freddie Freeman. If Mookie hadn’t played this season, this would have been a very tight race between Freddie and Acuna Jr. However, we can’t really consider Freeman for MVP at this point considering Betts clearly had the better season and they’re on the same team. fWAR measures how much better a player is than their hypothetical replacement and factors in baserunning, fielding, and hitting.
Stolen Bases Edge: Acuna JR.
Acuna has Mookie by a country mile here, 63-10. Acuna is the 1st 30-60 player ever as well, which I believe should be a significant consideration in the voting process. Acuna has a 4.33 average home to first base time, which is good for 36th in the MLB. Mookie has a 4.48, which is 78th in the MLB. Acuna Jr also has 16 bolts this season (over 30 feet/second), while Betts has zero. Finally Acuna ranks 51st in sprint speed at 28.8, which makes leading the league in stolen bases even more impressive. Mookie’s sprint speed is 27.2, which is a decent difference of 1.6 feet/second. 1.6 feet/sec is the difference between Acuna and the fastest guy in the league, Bobby Witt Jr.
Outs Above Average Edge: Mookie
Acuna is not a great defender which hurts his case here. He has a -2.4 UZR/150 in 2023, with an OAA of -8 and an RAA of -7. Betts on the other hand has better numbers, despite playing three different positions. His versatility obviously gives him a bump, but it goes even further because he can play the middle infield at a solid level. Mookie’s UZR/150 is 15.6 at 2B while he does rate below average at short (-9.7). In right field, he has a 0 OAA and RAA, while posting a 3.4 UZR/150. In my opinion, the versatility and superior defense gives Mookie the edge, unless Acuna covers some major ground in the next few weeks.
My MVP Pick as of Labor Day: Mookie Betts
*Stats are as of 9/4/2023