Athletic Excitement?
Esteury Ruiz of the Oakland Athletics (Stan Szeto, USA TODAY Sports)
The Oakland A’s are categorically confirmed as one of the worst teams ever. They’re currently 40-95 with a run differential of -301 (Rockies are next worst at -201). They’re projected to end at 52 wins or so, which is still a solid 12 games better than the 1962 Mets (40-120). A’s fans don’t have much to be excited about right now, unless John Fisher somehow sells the team and they never move to Vegas. This is unlikely, but at least they have some rookies to distract them from the worst record in baseball. The Oakland A’s rookies combine for 104 wRC+, which is the exact same as the famous Reds rookie class, which includes stars like Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz. Oakland may not have rookies getting major national attention, but they have multiple freshmen putting up solid numbers. Today, we’ll break down the performances and prospects of the four guys who have gotten solid playing time.
4. Jordan Diaz, 3B | 23 yo
Signed out of Columbia for $275K in 2016, Diaz will need to hit to be successful in the show. Jordan can play 1B and 2B, and has actually logged 194 MLB innings 2B, more than the other two positions. However, he’s made over 200 starts at third in his minor league career, which I argue makes him a 3B by trade. He has a solid arm, but the shaky fielding could result in him playing first, some second, and maybe even left field eventually. Diaz hit 325/.365/.522 in 64 AAA game and he’ll need to continue to show pop to stick around in the majors long term. In 226 AB’s in 2023, Jordan has hit .246/.305/.411, which translates to 101 wRC+ production for Oakland. ZIPS projects .257/.295/.394 for him in 2024, which won’t be good enough to hold down a full time job at third or first. I project Diaz to be more of a role player who can fill in than the kind of guy a team plans around.
Player Comp: Ian Stewart, 2.1 fWAR
3. Ryan Noda, 1B | 27 yo
Despite hitting 25 HR and stealing 20 bags in AAA last year, Noda couldn’t make it onto any prospect lists. The main reason is simple: he's old. Finally, at 26, the A’s grabbed Ryan Noda by way of the Rule 5 draft, the same way they got Mark Canha back in the day. He can play LF, but he’s hit well enough in Oakland to get a permanent spot at first base. Noda’s 16.9% BB rate is 1st in the American League for hitters with a minimum of 350 plate appearances and he’s flashed occasional power with a .183 ISO on the season. His full line is .238/.382/.421, which translates to a 132 wRC+, which is 2nd in AL among rookies (Luke Raley is 133 wRC+). There is a decent chance this is the best year Noda ever has, as ZIPS has .207/.315/.368 projected for 2024. If he can continue at his 2023 levels, someone will have an everyday job for him. Noda projects as a 1B or corner outfield guy who can fill out a lineup card for a team that’s rebuilding or in a transition period.
Player Comp: Lucas Duda, 6.5 fWAR
2. Esteury Ruiz, CF | 24 yo
Esteury was not really a prospect in either San Diego or Milwaukee, but he’s found a path to playing everyday in Oakland. Ruiz has 80 grade speed and leads the American League with 54 SB’s. However, Ruiz doesn’t have much else in the way of defense or hitting prowess. Esteury hit .286/.364/.460 over his minor league career, but the numbers haven’t carried over to the MLB. He’s hit .251/.307/.338 this season with an 84 wRC+. In center field this year, he has a +1 OAA and a negative -14.4 UZR/150. Esteury was actually converted from the infield and it shows sometimes. He gets bad jumps and makes up for it with his speed. If he can make better reads over time, he has the potential to play a solid center field for Oakland.His hitting is unlikely to get much better. He’s projected for .241/.320/.376 in 2024, which could be generous as far as power is concerned. Ruiz is a .250 hitter with 80 grade speed, but he’ll need to be better in CF to make up for the dearth of power.
Player Comp: Rajai Davis, 12.3 fWAR
1. Zack Gelof, 2B | 23 yo
Gelof was Oakland’s 2nd round pick in 2021, after a strong season at the University of Virginia. Gelof has successfully transitioned from the hot corner to second base with a 0 OAA and 4.8 UZR/150 in 42 MLB starts for the A’s. Gelof raised some eyebrows with .304/.401/.529 production in AAA earlier in the year, which was good enough for a promotion to the big leagues. Since the promotion, he’s hit 10 HR and stolen nine bags in only 42 games, with a 139 wRC+. The BB% could be better at 7.7%, but he has flashed some widely unexpected power (.279 ISO).
Gelof has a barrel rate of 12.8%, which is higher than highly touted rookies like Gunnar Henderson, Francisco Alvarez, and Matt McLain. The bottom line is I think scouts may have missed the boat on Gelof. ZIPS has him at .220/.286/.364 for 2024, but it’s really just a general estimate. I expect Gelof to demonstrate 25 HR power long term, which is not much different from what Noda can do. One difference is that Gelof can play a premium up the middle position at an average level and Noda can’t. Gelof is also four years younger and seems to have a higher chance of hitting .250 long term than Noda does. Gelof is the main piece here for fans to be excited about. I think he’s a future All Star.
Player Comp: Ian Kinsler, 47.4 fWAR
*Stats are as of 9/2/2023