Are the Texas Rangers Out of Bullets?
Jose Altuve of the Houston Astros (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
The Texas Rangers were in great shape going into the 9th inning with a 4-2 lead, right after Adolis Garcia was hit by a 99 MPH four seam fastball on the shoulder by Astros flamethrower, Bryan Abreu. Intentional? Maybe, maybe not. Regardless, the Rangers were about to be up 3-2 in the series, and permitted Houston to get back into the game by overusing Jose Leclerc and walking pinch hitter Jon Singleton with Jose Altuve on deck– the same Jose Altuve that ranks 2nd all time in Postseason home runs behind Manny Ramirez (26 HR in 101 Postseason games after Friday night). Texas allowed a situation for Jose Altuve to be hitting with two runners on with no outs in a 4-2 game. The first pitch was a slider called a strike on the paint and the second was a lame duck changeup that Jose cranked into the Crawford boxes (98.8 exit velocity). Now, instead of being up 3-2 going back to Houston, they are down 2-3 in the series and one loss away from playing golf or going to Cancun.
Jose Altuve (AP Photo)
After the Texas bullpen had been good for both the wild card series and the division series, they have a 5.56 ERA in the ALCS, while the starting rotation has a 5.24 ERA. Now, as I wrote a few pieces back, the key for Houston is whether their bullpen comes back down to earth or not. So far in this series, they have a 89.7% strand rate and a 1.23 ERA. Bottom line, their stable is dominating, while the Rangers’ horses are struggling after two weeks of success against playoff lineups. Also notable is the difference in offensive production. In the ALCS, Houston is hitting .241 with 8 HR, while Texas only has a .230 BABIP yet has matched Houston’s 8 HR. The .230 BABIP should be in line for positive regression, but a club can’t rely on math and bell curves in a two game stretch. It’s a total crapshoot, as Billy Beane pointed out several times during his tenure running the Oakland A’s in the Moneyball era.
However, two things you can control are who you’re starting and how you use your bullpen. I understand that Max had the velocity and the break on his pitches, I get it. I still don’t think he was ready to start a game of that magnitude, but one could argue Texas had to take the risk with the lack of rotation depth they were facing for games 3 and 4. They were able to go to Monty for Game 5 and they’ll go with Eovaldi for Game 6. It is quite possible Bruce Bochy rolls the dice with Mad Max in Game 7, but I wouldn’t personally. As Eno Sarris pointed out in his recent playoff piece for the Athletic, past Postseason performance doesn’t have to seem to have any predictive character to it, it really doesn’t help us to figure who will be good in the playoffs for the near future. At least, this is what bears out in the excel sheets and projection systems. I am still convinced some guys just have it while others don’t. Max Scherzer isn’t one of these guys that’s dominated in the playoffs (7-8 with a 3.80 ERA) and he’s coming off a pretty serious shoulder strain while having the worst Postseason ERA in the league since 2021 ( 0-3 with a 5.68 ERA).
Max Scherzer of the Texas Rangers (Addison @YankeeWRLD)
Postseason ERA 2021-2023, Min. 25 Innings (Baseball Reference)
It was a mistake to pitch him in Game 3 and I think it would be a mistake to pitch in Game 7. Texas has three other options I can think of; give Jon Gray the ball despite coming off an injury, start Dane Dunning, or Andrew Heaney who hasn’t looked the same recently either. None of them are ideal options, but I think Heaney or Dunning makes more sense than Scherzer at this point. Whoever they choose I would expect them to get somewhere in the range of 12 to 15 outs if things go well, but each would have a quick hook in a win or go home start.
Since each of these guys would have a quick hook, it’s particularly important that Eovaldi pitches well and pitches efficiently. If he gets knocked around and only gets 15 outs or less, the Texas bullpen will be taxed for Game 7. If he can do anything more than 18 outs, that’s a bonus for Bruce Bochy. If I’m Dusty Baker in the Astros dugout, my main focus for the club in Game 6 is knocking Eovaldi out of the game as soon as possible and driving that pitch count up. As you can see in the graphic below, the Rangers have been carried by Nate and Monty this whole October.
Texas Rangers Starting Pitcher Postseason Stats (Fangraphs)
In the pen, Jose Leclerc will be counted on heavily, as will Chapman and Sborz. This bullpen will put a ton of pressure on the lineup if they pitch as poorly in Games 6 and 7 as they have so far. Will Smith will need to find his All Star form as well against this hot Houston lineup. The Rangers have their back up against the wall and a few bullets left in the chamber. I’m not ready to count them out of this fight yet, but they’ll need some memorable performances to find themselves in the World Series.
Texas Rangers Bullpen Postseason ERA (Fangraphs)