How the Texas Rangers got to the World Series
Adolis Garcia hitting a Grand Slam in Game 6 against the Houston Astros | Photo by MLB
By all accounts, the 2022 season was a disaster for the Texas Rangers, finishing fourth in the AL West after spending half a billion dollars in the 2021-2022 offseason. They lost 94 games, despite inking two stars up the middle in Corey Seager and Marcus Semiem, while also spending $56M for four years on righty Jon Gray and trading for Mitch Garver. Jon Gray was alright (3.96 ERA), while Marcus Semien and Corey Seager both hit under .250. Mitch Garver also struggled, hitting .207 and struggling defensively in the 14 games he did catch. The offense as a whole hit .239 and ranked 20th in the league with a 96 wRC+. The starting rotation finished 25th with a 4.63 starter ERA, prompting them to sign Nate Eovaldi and Jacob Degrom this past winter. The Rangers had some terrible luck in early April 2023, when Jacob Degrom went under the knife for Tommy John surgery in June for the second time in his career. Degrom has not thrown more than 15 starts since 2019, yet was able to garner a 5/$185M deal from Texas. Ironically, the $34M deal for Eovaldi has been one of the best deals Texas could have made. Nate started 25 games, made the All Star team, and even most importantly, has a 4-0 record and a 2.43 ERA this Postseason.
Texas Rangers Multi Year Spending (Spotrac)
Eovaldi is one crucial piece to the success of the club, as are the rebounds of Semien and Seager. After both guys hit under .250 in 2022, Corey Seager hit .327 this season and led the league in doubles. He also grades well defensively and might have the most power of any shortstop in the game. If it wasn’t for Shohei, Seager would be acquiring some career altering hardware this winter. Marcus Semien led the league in hits and runs scored, which demonstrates both his ability to contribute to a high caliber offense (4th in MLB in wRC+ this season) as well as his durability in at least 161 regular season games for three consecutive seasons. Semien also grades well defensively and provides Texas with the best middle infield combination in baseball right now. Finally, Mitch Garver posted a 138 wRC+ this season and he’s had a few big hits in the playoffs this year. These earlier moves were critical to this team heading to the World Series. The Rangers wouldn’t be here without them. That said, they don’t tell the whole story.
I noted that the Texas Rangers were one of the big winners of the 2023 trade deadline, particularly for acquiring Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery. Scherzer was good down the stretch (3.20 ERA), but Montgomery ended up being the bigger addition to the club. Scherzer has struggled in the playoffs since coming back from injury, but was good enough to get some outs in Game 7 of the ALCS. Jordan Montgomery was better than Max since the trade deadline (2.79 ERA) and has been way better in the playoffs (2-0 with a 2.38 ERA in 4 starts). Without the performances of Montgomery and Eovaldi, Texas wouldn’t have made it far into October. Did Texas give up Major League talent in dealing Luisangel Acuna, Tekoah Roby, and Thomas Saggese? I’d say that’s quite possible, especially with Roby, who has flashed multiple pitches that could play in the major leagues. It's quite possible two of the three, or all three, flop. I don't think Chris Young and the Texas Rangers need to worry about it anyway, because these deals paved the way for the World Series run and that makes it worth the risk to move a few prospects with upside. For what it's worth, I think Acuna is a bit overrated, but I don’t expect any of these guys to dominate the league. Lastly, it should be noted that Aroldis Chapman has managed to strand all of his runners this October, and was alright after the trade deadline (3.72). I think this trade is a huge win for KC overall, though Cole Ragans looks like a frontline starter.
The emergence of home grown Rangers this season has really enhanced recent additions to make a formidable club. Adolis Garcia is in his own category with 7 HR this postseason, while 21 year old rookie Evan Carter has a .440 OBP. Guys like Heim and Leody Taveras have also had great moments despite not having great overall production in this playoff. Rookie of the Year candidate Josh Jung has scored 10 runs in 12 playoff games, with a .374 wOBA. Though Garcia was signed by the Cardinals initially, I would categorize him as Texas grown since he was DFA’d and found his success in Texas. If your 1st round draft picks like Josh Jung and your waiver wire guys like Garcia both become All Stars, you’re putting together a pretty extraordinary club.
2023 Texas Rangers Postseason Batting Stats (Fangraphs)
The Texas Rangers bullpen was a huge concern going into the playoffs, but has actually been alright so far (3.72 ERA). 3.72 is a huge improvement on their 5.01 2nd Half ERA and guys like Jose Clerc, Sborz, and Chapman have been pretty reliable (with the exception of the Altuve home run obviously). The recipe for success with his club has been Montgomery and Eovaldi pitching with the Rangers offense on a heater. When the offense is scoring runs, they are basically unbeatable. When they’re not, they’re quite vulnerable, due to an average bullpen and lack of starting pitching depth after Monty and Nate. They’ll be facing Arizona in the World Series, who also don’t have starting pitching depth or a good bullpen. They don’t have the offense that Texas has, but they do have 18 HR in only 11 playoff games this October. They wreaked havoc on the bases and ran all over Philly in the second half of the series. Their 3rd starter, Brandon Pfaadt, emerged in the NLCS and has shown us all that he has the highest ceiling of any Arizona starter if he can get the command down. Since he’s locked in right now, Arizona has three reliable starters for the World Series, while Texas arguably only has two. The Rangers will need key deadline acquisition, Mad Max, to turn up and show up for the Fall Classic. This series could go either way, but I’d back the best offense in the American League and a pitching staff led by Monty and Eovaldi to take the hardware home this year.
Diamondbacks 2023 Postseason Starter Stats (Fangraphs)