Building a Baltimore Dynasty Through the Draft
Mike Elias, GM of the Baltimore Orioles (Source: Baltimore Orioles)
The St. Louis Browns became the Baltimore Orioles in 1954 and since that moment the Orioles have gone 5534-5440 (.504%). The franchise has gone to the playoffs 13 times, won 6 AL pennants, and 3 World Series championships. The problem is they haven’t won the pennant since they won the World Series in 1983 and they haven’t even made the playoffs since they lost the 2016 Wild Card Series to the Toronto Blue Jays. Fast forward to today, the 2023 Orioles are 68-42, a +69 run differential, and are 2.5 games ahead of Tampa Bay for the American League East crown (Orioles haven’t won the division crown since 2014). The Orioles are a serious threat coming out of Baltimore again and they’re only going to get better as their young core continues to develop.
The subsequent chain of events leading to this season started with the hiring of Mike Elias in November 2018 from the Houston Astros general office. Elias originally followed his mentor Jeff Lunhow to Houston back in 2011 from St. Louis. When you look at how Elias built this juggernaut roster destined to dominate, you have to look at Elias's first Oriole draft that altered the course of the franchise. Baltimore owned the 1-1 pick that year (1st overall) and chose Adley Rutschman, a catcher out of Oregon State. Adley finished 2nd in the ROY voting last year and 12th in the MVP before making the 2023 AL all star roster. Adley is the heart of this Orioles team and it all started with him. In the 2nd round, the Orioles used the 43rd overall pick on Gunnar Henderson, who also looks like a future star. He’s 22 years old and is already playing at an All Star level. He’s an above average 3rd baseman with a 7.8 UZR/150 at the hot corner and can also play shortstop as well (9.1 UZR/150 in 48 games). In 133 MLB games, Gunnar has a 123 wRC+, meaning he has been a 23% above average hitter so far. Given his age, chances are he will get significantly better as time goes on. In back to back picks, Elias chose two potential future MVP candidates during the 2019 MLB draft.
It is worth noting that Joey Ortiz was taken in the 4th round in 2019 and is currently ranked 5th in the Orioles stacked farm system. Ortiz is seen as a defensive first SS who may hit enough to be a regular at the highest level. Worst case, he’s a great middle infielder to carry on the bench. In the abbreviated 2020 draft, Mike Elias seemingly went 5 for 6 on his picks, as all five are top 20 in the Orioles system. Perhaps even more impressive, 3 of the 2020 picks are top 7 in the Orioles farm. Heston Kjerstad, 2nd overall pick, projects as an above average right fielder with above average power from the left side of the plate. The O’s took shortstop Jordan Westburg from Mississippi State in the Competitive Balance round and he has not disappointed. Only 24, he already carries an .800 OPS at the MLB level and only seems to be getting better. Finally, in the 4th round, the Orioles took a flier on Coby Mayo out of the Florida high school ranks, mainly for his cannon and prodigious power. He continues to exhibit these skills, hitting .307/.424/.603 in AA before recently getting promoted to AAA. We should be seeing him in the major leagues soon, but the Orioles may not have room for him.
Fast forward to the 2021 draft and the dominance continues. They took Colton Cowser 5th overall and he already looks like a stud, hitting .330/.459/.537 in AAA this year. Cowser is capable in center, but some think he is better suited for a corner. In the 2nd round, the O’s grabbed Connor Norby, a bat first 2B who is now already in AAA at 23 years old. The 2022 draft is a little too early to evaluate, but the Orioles did take the current #1 prospect in baseball with the 1-1 pick. The son of a major league all star, Jackson Holliday is a generational 65 FV talent at shortstop and the crown jewel of this farm system. Now, you’ll notice we’ve talked about zero pitchers. That’s because Elias has never really drafted on or had much success with pitching. It makes sense to draft from your strengths, but you also have to make sure you trade and sign for the things you need.
Back in December 2019, Elias used former top prospect Dylan Bundy to net Kyle Bradish, who is currently leading the Orioles rotation with a 3.32 ERA. In December 2020, Elias took Tyler Wells from the Twins in the Rule 5 draft and he looks like a solid mid-rotation starter. He has a 3.80 ERA in 2023, but was sent down to AA recently due to workload concerns. The front office filled in the gaps through free agency and the farm system with inning eaters like Kyle Gibson, and traded for Jack Flaherty at the trade deadline last week. In the bullpen, they traded closer Jorge Lopez for current 8th inning setup man, Yennier Cano, in what is considered around the league as a fleecing of the Twins. Cano has a 1.89 ERA this year and made the All Star team, while Jorge was flipped to the Marlins after a bad first half.
Mike Elias is now contending for best GM in baseball. He drafts position players and then trades and signs for pitching. This formula is working so far and the Orioles have decided to sit back and see what this team can do, rather than make a push for 2023. While Flaherty is a nice addition and performed well in his debut, the Orioles needed more starting pitching this past deadline. Eduardo Rodriguez ended up going nowhere, but what if Elias had worked something out with Detroit to get him? The best lefty on the market would go a long way to strengthen this young Oriole rotation. There are concerns about innings limits and fatigue (e.g. Tyler Wells.) Why not trade from the warchest of shortstops and outfielders to land a few playoff caliber starters? I’m sure Elias has his reasons, but it is time for the Angelos family to spend some money on the roster and show the clubhouse that they’re serious. They’re currently at a $90.56M tax payroll, which is 29th in baseball. In fact, they could double their tax payroll and they’d still be below the median, $187.80M. I am excited to see what this postseason brings for Baltimore, but even more excited to see what big arms the Orioles get in December. The club needs it and the fans deserve it!
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax/
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/orioles/
*Stats are as of 8/5/23