Top 5 Free Agent Position Players For 2024
Shohei Ohtani of the L.A. Angels (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP 29 yo
We could do a whole article on Shohei and we might soon, but today I want to take a look at Shohei’s value this winter. As a hitter, he has a 185 wRC+ this year and could reasonably be expected to hit in the 150 wRC+ range for the next several years. For context, Shohei the hitter’s value is about $45.6M through 111 games in 2023. Obviously, Ohtani is also a #1 starter with a career 3.05 ERA. Shohei the pitcher’s value is about $17.2M so far in 2023. With some quick math, we get to $62.8M through 111 games (the Angels have played 113). This is about 70% of the season, so 62.8/.7= $89.71M. Yes, Shohei is on pace for $90M production this season.
Prediction: Dodgers | 10 years | $650M
Matt Chapman, 3B 30 yo
Chapman is a legitimate two-way player who has been worth over $30M for two consecutive seasons and is well on his way to a third (already projected at $28.5M in value through 110 games by Fangraphs for 2023). Matt is a 2X Platinum glove and 3X Gold Glove winner, but he has also been an above average hitter every season of his career (126 wRC+ in 2023). Chapman is easily the most complete infielder in this class by far, but is strictly a third baseman so the number of suitors will depend on that need.
Prediction: Cubs | 7 years | $190M
Cody Bellinger, CF 28 yo
Other than Ohtani, Bellinger is the biggest bat on the market but is lacking Chapman’s consistency. Bellinger signed a one-year prove it deal with the Cubs last offseason on the heels of .193/.256/.355 over a two year span. In 2023, MVP-form Bellinger is back, or close enough anyway. He is still an above average center fielder and he’s hitting .326/.378/.547 which is 47% above average production this year. Defensively, Cody is +5 OAA in CF and +1 at 1B, which gives his next organization added versatility when filling out the lineup card. Bellinger has had injury and inconsistency issues, but he does have youth on his side.
Prediction: Yankees | 3 years | $90M
Jung-Hoo Lee, CF 25 yo
Lee, who is expected to be posted by the Kiwoom Heroes this offseason, won the MVP in 2022 and had a “down” year hitting .319 in 2023. Jung-Hoo grades as a 60/60 outfielder as well as a projected above average MLB hitter. Lee is a career .340 hitter who only struck out 5.1% of the time last year in 627 plate appearances. For context, Luis Arraez’s career MLB K rate is 6.8%. When Ha-Seong Kim came over from Korea in 2021, he signed for four years $28M but he didn’t project as well in the major leagues as Lee does. Kim’s contract is now one of the biggest value deals in the major leagues and I expect Lee to be even better. Unfortunately, Jung Hoo will need ankle surgery, which will end the rest of his season. This could impact his payday a bit, but the position player market is pretty light.
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays | 4 years | $68M
Jeimer Candelario, 3B 30 yo
I decided to go with Jeimer over Teoscar partially due to his 2023 success, as well as the market circumstances. There are simply not many infielders in this class. In fact, you could make the case that there are no starting shortstops available in free agency this year unless you’re interested in 150 games of Paul DeJong or Tim Anderson. Jeimer is a decent 3B with a 6 OAA mark this year and can play 1B as needed. Three of his last four seasons he has had a wRC+ of at least 120 and doesn’t have a K rate north of 30%. To me, that makes him better than Teo right now and for context, Jeimer just passed $30M in estimated value for 2023.
Prediction: Phillies | 5 years | $110M
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023-24-mlb-free-agents
https://www.baseball-reference.com/
*Stats are as of 8/7/23