Top 5 Free Agent Starting Pitchers
Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Orix Buffaloes (The Japan Times)
Shohei Ohtani, RHP 29 yo
We already covered Shohei’s financial value in the previous article, but I will reiterate: I firmly see Ohtani as a #1 starter. Ohtani has a career 3.05 ERA with a 31.3% K rate that reinforces his dominance. He’s gotten tagged on a few too many home runs via his sweeper this season, and his barrel rate is up to 10%. I think some of these issues are related to his blister, but I’d be a little concerned if I was preparing to pay a contract well over a half a billion. How long will Ohtani pitch, and how long will he be a #1 starter? I think the Dodgers have good guesses on these questions and have made the chess moves to create an opening for Shohei, both from a financial and roster structure perspective.
Prediction: Dodgers | 10 years | $650M
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP 25 yo
Yamamoto has a 1.92 ERA across 7 NPB seasons, coupled with a strong 4.52 K/BB ratio. Yamamoto is expected to be posted this year by Orix, as we are seeing more guys make a smooth transition from Japan in 2023 (e.g. Senga, Yoshida). Yoshinobu is viewed as having a #2 starter upside, with a mid 90’s heater, a splitter, and a breaking ball. The Red Sox have an aging ace made of glass in Chris Sale and their pitching staff needs a new leader.
Prediction: Red Sox | 7 years | $175M
Julio Urias, LHP 27 yo
Julio should be the most coveted left hander in this market for two reasons, youth and previous dominance. From 2021-2022, Urias had a 2.57 ERA, and finished 7th and 3rd in the Cy Young award. Yes, 2023 is a down year with a concerning 1.56 HR/9 rate for Urias (4.00 xERA), but he will get years and dollars because he has proven he is a number one as a young left hander. Urias provided $65M of value of 2021-2022, and sports a career 3.03 ERA, an eerily similar number to Shohei. The Cardinals season fell apart early largely due to a lack of starting pitching and I suspect it will be a priority to get a front end starter like Julio this offseason.
Prediction: Cardinals | 6 years | $132M
Aaron Nola, RHP 30 yo
Aaron Nola’s calling card is his durability. In a time when you can barely expect 20 starts from your guys (e.g. the Rays), Nola has started over 160 games and thrown over 1000 innings since 2018. During that time, he put together a 3.63 ERA, ranking top 7 in the NL Cy Young for three different seasons. He’ll get paid for his durability, as well as his upside, and he’s earned it. In 2022, Aaron Nola’s value was projected at $50.2M by Fangraphs, $18.6M through 23 starts in 2023. The Baltimore Orioles need a starter who can eat innings and provide reliable production— perfect fit.
Prediction: Orioles | 5 years | $120M
Blake Snell, LHP 31 yo
Blake has been incredible in the last few months with a 0.87 ERA in June and a 0.56 in July. He also has a ridiculous 85.5% strand rate and a 13.7% BB rate this season. There are some obvious signs of regression, pointing to a still solid 3.84 xERA. This is a far cry from his actual 2.61 ERA , and a sign that Snell is further from his Cy Young form than his ERA would suggest. Blake is solid, but he’s a 5 inning guy who really has to labor, and I don’t see him as an ace at this point (115 ERA+ 2021-2023). That said, Snell is a solid lefty #2 or #3, which is exactly what Arizona needs behind Zac Gallen.
Prediction: DBacks | 5 years | $115M
https://www.baseball-reference.com/
*Stats are as of 8/9/23