Mariners Fall Forward into Wild Card Race
Julio Rodriguez of the Seattle Mariners (Lindsey Wasson-USA TODAY Sports)
The Seattle Mariners had to take a hard look at which direction they wanted to go after getting swept by the Houston Astros in the 2022 MLB Postseason. Robbie Ray had an average campaign that year before having a terrible postseason that contributed to an early October exit, coming off of a Cy Young season in 2021. Robbie was a large investment for Seattle (5 years, $115M), and 2022 was not a great early return for the Mariners. To make matters worse, Ray blew out his elbow and got Tommy John Surgery in May 2023. Thankfully, Seattle’s pitching depth has bailed them out, with guys like Miller and Woo filling spots in the rotation and George Kirby having a breakout year. The Mariners attempted to enhance the lineup with offseason trades in 2023 for both Kolten Wong and Tesocar Hernandez, but neither have worked out. Kolten Wong was released last week, after hitting .165 as one of the worst players in baseball this year. Teoscar has never been a below average hitter (133 OPS+ 2020-2022), yet finds himself below average while leading the major league with 148 strikeouts. His defense this year is better than usual, but the edge isn’t enough to balance out the 97 OPS+.
As Mariners fans know, President of Baseball Ops, Jerry Dipoto likes to trade his way to his desired roster structure. This past deadline, we saw Jerry trade Paul Sewald, a top 5 closer in baseball, for a package consisting of Josh Rojas, Dominic Canzone, and Ryan Bliss. In a vacuum, I like this trade as relievers can be overvalued, particularly by playoff contenders. Although Josh Rojas is likely to be non-tendered at the end of the year, Dominic Canzone can rake (.354/.431/.634 in Reno this year) and Ryan Bliss looks like a future utility player in the MLB. That’s not a bad return for a year and half of a closer, if you aren’t a contender. The Mariners were in the thick of the Wild Card hunt when they made that trade. Jerry was quoted saying the Mariners were more than one player away, but we saw the 2019 Nationals and the 2021 Braves trade for the right pieces in a similar spot and win a World Series.
In 25 games since the All Star Break, the Seattle Mariners are a top 10 offense (8th in MLB with a 117 wRC+). Their pitching staff has shown up all year, but they are a real threat when they score runs. Since losing to Boston on August 1st, the Mariners have won seven in a row and are 9-1 in their last 10 games. The Mariners are 1.5 games out in the Wild Card, as the Blue Jays currently have the 3rd AL Wild Card. Notably, Houston is only 3.0 games in front of Seattle, so the 2nd Wild Card is anything but locked up at this point. Behind Seattle, Boston is 4.0 games back and the Yankees are 5.0 games out.
The Sewald deal has not aged well so far, but I will give Jerry and the front office credit for backing away from trading Teoscar Hernandez and Ty France. There were rumors of moving Teo, Ty, or both. The front office ended up keeping them in a lineup that badly needs their productivity and veteran leadership. The Mariners look like the team to break out of the WC trail and make a real run. Meanwhile, the Angels and Yankees have nosedived, and the Red Sox don’t seem to have the pitching for a run down the stretch.The Mariners have a +54 run differential, which is better than the Red Sox, Yankees, and Angels combined (37). It may look like on paper that the Mariners are a few players away, but any team can get hot at the right time and the Mariners are proving that.
Though the front office doesn’t seem to believe it, I think Seattle is built for a postseason run. They needed to make some changes and cut bait on guys like Wong and AJ Pollock, while injecting new energy into this lineup with players like Cade Marlowe (175 wRC+ since his callup). Even with the Mariners hitting, their strength is their pitching and even more specifically, their starting rotation. A playoff rotation of Castillo, Gilbert, and Kirby is better than what most teams will have this postseason. I would take these three over what Houston has (Framber, Verlander, Brown) or what the Rangers have (Eovaldi, Scherzer, Montgomery). Even if the Mariners do see an untimely injury in the rotation, they have the depth in Miller, Woo, and Hancock to be competitive in October.
From a bullpen perspective, Seattle has definitely lost an edge without Sewald but their crew has collectively been the 2nd best bullpen in the MLB this year (3.46 ERA) behind the Yankees. The Mariners have plenty of horses in the stable for October and this team can get lucky with a deep run if the offense can keep scoring. Ty, Julio, and Teoscar are all hitting over .320 in August and the Mariners will need them to continue producing to be able to win a playoff series or two. Some factors are out of the Mariners control, but they have the puzzle pieces and the momentum for some October magic. As the 2019 Nationals, the 2021 Braves, and the 2022 Phillies have exhibited, predicting the MLB postseason is like throwing darts blindfolded. You don’t know who’s going to put it all together at the right time.
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*Stats are as of 8/11/23