Are the Phillies Legit?
Bryce Harper of the Philadelphia Phillies (Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports)
It’s probably safe to say the Phillies aren’t winning the National League East this year, similar to 2022, but the Wild Card is a different story with the Phillies 3.0 games up and sitting in the number one spot. If they can stave off SF, Miami, and company, they’ll have home field advantage against the second Wild Card team. The Phillies are 40-24 since June 1st, only second in the MLB behind their rival, the Atlanta Braves. They’re also 2nd in rotation ERA (3.42), 4th in bullpen ERA (3.39), and 12th in offense in the MLB (104 wRC+) during this period as well. The Phillies could be built for another run similar to last year, when they grabbed a Wild Card before losing in the World Series to a dominant Houston Astros team. The team identity has shifted out of necessity this season with pitching being a strength, compared to average pitching in the 2nd Half of 2022 (rotation was 15th with a 3.90 ERA and bullpen was 29th in MLB with a 5.10 ERA). Their lineup was 7th in the MLB after the 2022 All Star Break (110 wRC+) and the Phillies went 38-32 in the 2nd Half to grab a Wild Card.
The 2023 Phillies have different strengths this year. President of Baseball Ops, Dave Dobrowski ,made a big move to acquire Michael Lorenzen, who subsequently threw a no hitter in his first home start for the Phillies. Having Lorzenzen behind Zack Wheeler in the playoffs is a huge addition for the Phillies staff, primarily because it gives them solid rotation depth with Nola and Suarez behind them. Suarez hasn’t been as good this year (4.88 xERA), but he is key as the only lefty and having had postseason success last year (won two games and had a 1.23 ERA). Wheeler and Nola combined for six quality starts in the 2022 postseason and the Phillies will need similar production again to make a deep postseason run in 2023.
Obviously, the Phillies bullpen wasn’t strong down the stretch in 2022, but the pen was strong in the postseason outside of Jose Alverado. They had starters like Zach Eflin step up in a bullpen role (3.38 postseason ERA), and Syndergaard and Kyle Gibson were pretty solid while seldom used. Three relievers (Robertson, Dominguez, Bellatti) all had ERA’s south of 1.70 in the 2022 postseason which enabled the Phillies to close several tight games. Though Philly probably won’t get that kind of overperformance again, this is a better bullpen than last year. They rank 9th in the MLB over the full 2023 campaign, thanks to additions like Craig Kimbrel (3.18 ERA) and Jeff Hoffman (2.88 ERA). They’ll need Gregory Soto to be better, as he was projected to be a high leverage arm for them at the beginning of the season (4.84).
Behind the pitchers, the Phillies still have a below average defensive outfield, but it’s improved with the addition of Brandon Marsh (5 OAA). Johan Rojas has also been great as a rookie, just behind Marsh with 4 OAA in only 23 games. In the corners, Castellanos (-4 OAA) and Schwarber (-15 OAA) are bad and terrible. In the field, Harper has been better than Bohm at 1B so far, while Stott and Turner have been above average in middle infield. Realmuto is having a down year, but the 2X GG catcher should be ok. Dombrowski and the front office made nice additions to improve the defense, and the strengths (Stott, Rojas) balance out the weaknesses (Schwarber, Castellanos).
The Phillies hit 205 taters in the 2022 regular season and it could have been more if not for a terrible season from Nick Castellanos (13 HR in 136 games). Castellanos is much better this year with a 110 wRC+ and already surpassed his 2022 HR total a while ago (at 20 HR now). One thing that stands out looking at the 2023 Phillies is Brandon Marsh leading the team in wRC+ (123). Right behind is Harper at 118, which is interesting because it has been a down year for him coming off of Tommy John Surgery. Across the full season, the Phillies are exactly average with a 100 wRC+. Obviously, this won’t cut it in October and they will need bigger production from guys like Trea Turner and Bryce Harper. Turner signed a massive $300M contract with the Phillies this past off season, only to be hitting .252/.303/.398 in his inaugural season. Trea is hitting .333 in August so far, which could be indicative of him finally finding his way out of a season long slump. The Phillies only hit .211 last postseason with Harper (hit .349) and Schwarber (.937 OPS) providing most of the productio). For context, Alec Bohm hit .224 and it was good enough for second on the team last October. If the Phillies are going to make a deep run this year they need more consistent offensive production because they are unlikely to see the massive positive variance they got in 2022 from their pitching staff (particularly the bullpen).
If Harper can find his power stroke, Rhys Hoskins makes it back, and Trea Turner keeps hitting, their offense will be alright. Aaron Nola needs to be the playoff caliber starter he’s been for most of his career. If these things happen, the Phillies can beat anyone in a 7-game series. There is no perfect team (maybe the 27 Yankees), as both the Braves and Rays have demonstrated throughout the year. The Rays are 31-31 since June 1st after a historically hot start. The Braves rotation has a 5.51 ERA in the 2nd Half, but has been buoyed by the offense in baseball (137 wRC+ since the AS break). The Phillies are a well rounded team, but they need their stars to be stars if they expect to find themselves in the Fall Classic again.
*Stats are as of 8/14/23