Early Returns on Top 2023 Free Agents
Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees (Associated Press)
Each year, there are teams that enter the bidding for blue chip free agents. Some, like the Yankees, land their hometown superstar in Judge, while others lose out on the big player (E.g. Giants in 2022). Now that we are squarely in the dog days of summer, there is enough of a sample to look at early returns for free agents signed back in the 2022 offseason. There were four players that signed on the dotted line for over $200M and we’ll be looking at them today.
4) Carlos Correa, Minnesota Twins | 6 years | $200M
There is a super unusual fact about Carlos Correa’s experience- he shook hands with three teams and failed two physicals in one offseason. Carlos had a surgery completed back in his minor league days that made it difficult to get insurance on the 2022 deal, which also played a role in the previous two deals with the Mets and the Giants breaking down. Correa agreed to $350M with the Giants, before agreeing to $315M and ultimately sticking with the $200M deal the Twins agreed to. Correa is a brand name shortstop, GG and Platinum Glove winner, ROY, and World Series Champion. He has a 6.6 bWAR per 162 games over his MLB career, including 5.5 bWAR last year for the Twins.
This season is a different story as Correa has a 1.2 bWAR in 108 games and finds himself hitting just .231 instead of his career .274 mark and leading the Majors in GIDP with 23 double plays. On the bright side, Correa has been solid at shortstop (1 OAA) and has stayed relatively healthy. The power is also still there. His .178 isolated power in 2023 is actually better than his ISO in 2022 (.176). Correa’s career batting average on balls-in-play is .313, yet in 2023 he is only hitting .272 on balls-in-play (the league average is around .300). In short, the main reason for the lack of production from Correa is bad breaks on good swings. That may not be much consolation for a Twins offense badly needing his typical production as they compete for 1st place in the illustrious American League Central.
2023 Fangraphs Value: $9.2M
3) Xander Bogaerts, San Diego Padres | 11 years | $280M
Xander got called up to the Red Sox in August 2013 and won the World Series two months later. Then in 2018, he won another chip despite hitting .136 in the World Series. Bogaerts is a 4X AS and 5 X SS, which is notable because the silver slugger indicates he’s the best offensive shortstop in the league. He won 5 in 8 years, which is what San Diego is paying him for. In 10 seasons with Boston, Bogey put up a 117 OPS+ and had a defensive mark of -56 runs at short according to Sean Smith at Baseball Projection. This season, Bogaerts has been better at short with a -1 rField, and an even better +4 OAA according to Fangraphs. At the plate, he is almost the inverse of Correa, hitting around .270, but with a big dip in power. From 2018-2021, Xander was always near .200 ISO or better. In 2023, he is sitting at .129 ISO (league average is .164).
Since this contract is twice as long as Correa, the power regression is twice as concerning. Xander also grades worse than Carlos at short, so the bat has to play up to balance it out. A 110 wRC+ is a great mark for a shortstop, unless you are in year one of a $280M deal. The Padres can’t be happy with his production, a bigger concern for me than Correa’s low BABIP. Obviously PETCO is a pitcher’s park, while Fenway is the opposite. Regardless, he will have to get back to 40 2B/25 HR power for this contract to pay for AJ Preller and the Padres.
2023 Fangraphs Value: $22.7M
2) Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies | 11 years | $300M
Trea was moved back with Max Scherzer in the historic 2021 trade deadline deal that netted both the Nationals catcher Keibert Ruiz and starting pitcher Josiah Gray. Trea went on the record saying the Dodgers essentially showed no interest in bringing him back to LA. This is a little perplexing given the Dodgers’ propensity to spend money on blue chip players. It is more surprising because Trea was very good as a Dodger with a 131 OPS+, as well as a .307 batting average in a two year window. Turner is a true 5 tool player, which is particularly rare for a player hitting the free agent market. The Phillies paid up and got their 5 tool star and World Series Champion at the top of their batting order.
Unfortunately for Trea, Phillies skipper Rob Thompson has moved him all around the batting order in an attempt to get Trea in a rhythm. So far this season, Trea is down on both contact (.250 in 2023 to .295 career) and power (.145 ISO in 2023 compared to .180). The strikeouts are also at a career high– 23.1% compared to a career K rate of 18.6%. The silver lining is the defense has still been there, as has the baserunning. Turner has a +3 OAA mark this year at short and has already swiped 22 bags so far this season. I’m encouraged by the .315 batting average in August, but the rise in strikeouts is a legitimate concern. In a vacuum, this contract could have the worst early return of the deals discussed at this point, due to the years. However, Trea’s 2020-2022 run saw him hit .316 with a 139 OPS+ over a 3-year range. He also finished top 10 in MVP voting twice in the three year window. He’s a dominant player when he’s on and I’m optimistic due to his barrel rate in 2023 (6.5%) being negligibly different from his career 6.6% barrel rate.
2023 Fangraphs Value: $14.9M
1) Aaron Judge, New York Yankees | 9 years | $360M
Prior to the contract extension deadline provided by Judge in April 2022, the Yankees offered a 7-year $213.5M extension. Several months later, Judge signed for 9 years, $360M after betting on himself. He set the American League record for home runs, while also leading the league in runs, RBI, walks, OBP, SLG, OPS+, and OPS. It is fair to say he dominated the season and managed to beat out unicorn Shohei Ohtani for the MVP award. Judge grades above average in right field and can also play center field as needed. At signing, he was the reigning MVP, 2017 ROY, 5 X All Star, and 3X Silver Slugger.
2023 was starting in similar fashion for Judge, as he hit .342 with 12 dingers in May. Shortly after a stellar May, Judge crashed into the Dodger Stadium fence in right field and tore a ligament in his big toe. The fence basically gave out on Judge and he probably could make a case that the Dodgers are liable if he really wanted to. For both the Yankees and Judge, this was a terrible break, and the first domino in what has become a disastrous season for New York. Through no fault of Judge, a fluke injury has cost the Yankees a ton of value from Aaron, as well as a legitimate 2023 postseason run. Despite the disappointments for this season, Judge has proved folks wrong more than once and I have little concern of him providing value in this contract. Most will point to durability given his size, but Judge averaged 152 games in his last two seasons before his bizarre injury. In the 66 games he has played this year, he has a 181 OPS+, which is better than Shohei if you’re wondering (180 OPS+). Assuming durability, this could be the best contract of the four despite the price tag, especially when you consider the locker room and marketing value for New York having a giant, both in stature and brand.
2023 Fangraphs Value: $27.4M
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33697851/new-york-yankees-aaron-judge-new-contract-ahead-self-imposed-first-pitch-deadlinehttps://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/carlos-correa-signing-why-free-agency-has-been-saga-of-incomplete-deals-unsure-owners-and-old-injuries/www.fangraphs.comwww.baseball-reference.comwww.spotrac.com*Stats are as of 8/16/2023