Can José Abreu Bounce Back?

José Abreu of the Houston Astros *(MLB)*

José Abreu dominated Cuban baseball for a decade before coming over to the MLB. During the 2020 Covid-abbreviated season, José became the fourth Cuban-born player to win Most Valuable Player in MLB history – the first since José Canseco in 1988. He led the American League in hits, total bases, RBI, and slugging percentage. He also hit .317, the same as when he won Rookie of the Year six years prior. Abreu has won 3 Silver Sluggers, made 3 All Star games and received MVP votes in eight of his ten seasons, only being left off the ballot in his sophomore year and his 2023 campaign last season – easily the worst year of his MLB career.

Last season, José hit .237 with only 18 home runs, hitting under the Mendoza line in two separate months (.180 in May and .188 in August). Thankfully, for Astros fans, Abreu hit .295/.354/.591 in the Postseason and was a big part of Houston’s run. Abreu is 37, but looked better in September after his return from the IL (injury list) and probably benefited from the rest provided due to Houston’s bye last October. To get the most out of older veterans, it makes sense to give them a day here and there to both keep them healthy and refreshed. Now the question is, will we see quintessential José Abreu in 2024, or was his 2023 playoff pop merely a swan song from Father Time?

*Jos*é *Abreu Career Stats and Awards (bRef)*

The answer and projections will differ on either the system you are using or the person you are asking. Even when older players have off years, it is good to avoid overreaction, particularly when we are talking about a former MVP with an .843 career OPS; as Hall of Famer Jeff Bagwell remarked on an Astros broadcast last season, look at “the back of the baseball card”.
ZIPS projects .263 with 17 HR and 77 RBI, while Steamer projects a similar .261 with 19 HR and 78 RBI. Both of these projections are 8-9% above league average, but below-average when you factor in Abreu’s first base position and that he will be slotting at DH more in 2024. Last year, he played 134 games at 1B, but it may help to keep him off the diamond a few more times a month if they feel comfortable throwing Yordan more often in left. Though this projected production is not league-topping for a first baseman or DH, I think Houston would be happy with a 108 or 109 wRC+ from Abreu in his age 37 season. With the rest of the lineup so stacked, Houston just needs him to not be a significant liability for the two years remaining on his deal.

*Jos*é *Abreu Astros Contract (Spotrac)*

Let’s dig into the Baseball Savant metrics. If we go with the bad news first, José’s defense is clearly slipping with a -6 OAA last year. Abreu also had a 36.3% chase rate, ranking in the bottom 10% of the league, which is way up from 2022 when he finished in the 45th percentile with a 29.8% chase rate. After ranking in the top 10% for much of his career, Abreu finished with a 41.6% hard hit rate, which is only about league average (53rd percentile). Another notable drop here is José’s performance against breaking balls (below). After hitting .290 against breaking pitches in 2022, he only hit .210 with a .255 wOBA. He did manage 9 home runs, but teams will continue to throw breaking pitches off the plate if José continues to chase. If he’s going to bounce back, he’s got to stop chasing breaking pitches outside of the zone that put him behind in the count.

The good news: Abreu is still doing okay against fastballs. He hit .270 last year with a .279 xBA against fastballs – though it’s a big drop off from a .314 xBA in 2022. The key here is finding ways to lay off the breaking pitches outside of the zone. He figured something out in October, obviously, when he looked like the Silver Slugger that he’s been for much of his career. For a guy who looked washed for most of the regular season, he was impressive in putting up a .945 OPS and hitting the ball hard against some of the best competition in the league. To me, that is very encouraging and stands out as the best evidence for optimism going into 2024. Obviously, he has quite a resumé and a few good months last season as well. He hit .292/.311/.510 in June 2023, so maybe he can tap into that performance more consistently. Afterall, 2023 was supposed to be a bounce-back after 2022 which was considered a down year for Abreu. Perhaps he can finally take advantage of the Crawford boxes this year, after hitting only 6 of his 18 home runs at the Juice Box last season. The Astros certainly hope so, because they are on the hook for $39M either way.