PC Top 5 Lefty Starters in the MLB

Blake Snell, Free Agent (AP Photo / Gregory Bull)

A balanced starting rotation is a luxury for an MLB club. Dominant, left-handed starters like Randy Johnson or Clayton Kershaw afford ball clubs a privilege of ace-like stuff with an added twist; ace lefties are able to throw sliders and curveballs that break away from the left-handed hitter. These pitches are almost impossible to hit. With southpaws comprising only a quarter of MLB pitchers, historically, and, as evidenced by platoon splits, such hitters struggle against left-handed pitching simply from lack of reps. Randy Johnson, for example, held lefties to a .209 career BAA (batting average against), compared to a .242 BAA against right-handed hitting. Legendary lefty closer Billy Wagner, who fell just five votes shy of the Hall of Fame this year, held lefties to an otherworldly .167/.228/.217 over his 16-year big league career, personifying the case for a left-handed arm locking down the back of your bullpen. Now of course, lefties need to get everybody out (righties, too), and both Randy and Billy were able to do that at a high level. Nevertheless, it can be invaluable to stymie a left-handed superstar like Shohei or Yordan Alvarez when you’re only a game or two from advancing to the World Series. As we examine the top lefties in the game right now, please note Shane McClanahan went under the knife back in August 2023 for Tommy John surgery. Since he’s out for all of 2024, I’m not going to include him on this list, while Kershaw, Robbie Ray, and Jeffrey Springs are not considered due to injury as well. Even though Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are currently unsigned for 2024, we'll assume they are going to sign at some point before Opening Day.

5) Jordan Montgomery, Free Agent

While Jesus Luzardo or Cole Ragans could certainly make this list next year, they’re late cuts for me for the 2024 edition. I simply couldn’t leave a gamer like Jordan Montgomery off this list, with his workhorse resumé and playoff success. Montgomery and Nate Eovaldi carried the Rangers’ pitching staff to their 2023 World Series championship, including two dominant starts in the ALCS against their interstate rival the Houston Astros. Over the last three years, Jordan has started 94 regular season games to the tune of a 3.48 ERA over 524.1 innings of work. He doesn’t have the flashy strikeout numbers like Blake Snell or 60% ground ball rate that Framber has, but he finds a way to get his outs. Whether he ends up back in Texas or Boston, any team would be lucky to have a workhorse, number two starter like Monty.

*2021-2023 MLB Left Handed Leaders in Innings Pitched (bRef)*

4) Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs

Justin broke out in his first full MLB season, making the All Star team and finishing 5th in NL Cy Young award voting. Steele led the league in home run rate at 0.7/9, or 14 homers allowed in 173.1 innings of work. While there is certainly an element of skill involved in keeping the ball in the yard, he’s likely to see a regression to the mean in 2024. It is worth noting, however, that he excelled at keeping the ball out of the bleachers in 2022 as well, with only 8 homers allowed in 24 starts. Steele’s expected ERA last year was 3.50, and I think that’s a reasonable projection for 2024. Though he may be due for some negative regression, there is a lot to be optimistic about. His 5.0% BB rate ranks in the 93rd percentile, while his 31.9% chase rate and 5.4 barrel % are very strong numbers – stats of a frontline starter. The Cubs will look for Steele to cement himself as the club’s ace this year, and he looks well-poised to do so.

*Justin Steele 2023 Performance (Baseball Savant)*

3) Blake Snell, Free Agent

Snellzilla now has Cy Young awards in both leagues, despite only throwing 180 innings twice in his MLB career. Snell led the league with 99 walks, yet simultaneously led the league with a 2.25 ERA thanks to a ridiculous 86.7% strand rate. Snell can strand runners better than many because of his strikeout ability, but the success is at least in some part due to good luck. In his Cy Young season with Tampa back in 2018, his strand rate was 88%, so it’s definitely a key ingredient to a good season for Blake. I’m not on these calls between Snell’s agents and these teams, but I suspect Blake wants to be paid for his 2.28 ERA, and MLB teams probably want to pay him based on the aggregate of his seasons, including his high walk rates, high expected ERA, FIP, and low inning totals. To me, it’s gotta be somewhere in the middle. Predictive stats are important, but results are the most important. I project another K rate north of 30% for Snell in 2024, as does ZIPS and Steamer. However, no one is projecting a strand rate north of 85% again, so this year, he’ll probably see an ERA higher than 3.00.

*Blake Snell Advanced Season Stats (Fangraphs)*

2) Framber Valdez, Houston Astros

Framber finished last year with a 54.2% groundball rate, which is very good but down significantly from the absurd 66.5% rate he put up in 2022. Valdez has thrown 534 innings since 2021, most in the majors among lefties. That kind of durability is prized in a time when organizations have to plan on using seven to nine starters over a full MLB season. With Framber, there’s a good chance he’s going to start all of his games and pitch at an All Star level. His bread and butter is his curveball (117 stuff+), which had hitters at a .202 wOBA in 2023 and a .198 wOBA in 2022. Over 70% of Valdez’s pitches are his sinker/curve combo, with his cutter and changeup each being thrown less than 20% of the time. There’s a lot to like about Valdez, and I’m sure Dana Brown is trying to hammer out an extension, or least he should be. Lefties who throw 180+ innings per year at an All Star level are not cheap to trade for, nor easy to draft.

*Framber Valdez Pitching Tracking (Baseball Savant)*

1) Max Fried, Atlanta Braves

Despite throwing less than 80 innings in 2023, I have to put Max Fried at the top of the board here based on his dominance over the last few years. From 2021-2023, Fried has a 2.71 ERA over 428.2 innings, the best ERA by a left handed starter over the last three seasons. As you can see below, the two guys immediately behind him are coming back from injury, while Julio Urias is currently suspended for off the field issues. 5th in the rankings is Framber, who is a full 0.42 higher ERA comparatively, despite them having the same HR rate. Framber is a ground ball machine, while Fried relies on pinpoint command and control of the strike zone. Both are elite in their own way and in their own league, but Fried is number one going into 2024. Steamer projects 185 innings and a 3.59 ERA, while ZIPS projects a 3.27, albeit in only 127 innings of work. If the Braves are blessed with health this year, they have a potential playoff rotation of Strider, Fried, Sale, and “Uncle Charlie” Morton. Paired with their stacked offense, they should be competitive with the star-studded Dodgers in October 2024.