Is Joey Votto a Hall of Famer?
Joey Votto of the Cincinnati Reds (Aaron Doster/AP)
After twenty-two years with the Reds’ organization, Joey Votto signed a minor league deal with his hometown Blue Jays this weekend. Though he has a shot at making Toronto’s roster, it could be an uphill battle with Guerrero at first and Justin Turner slotted in as everyday DH. Occasionally, teams will carry a backup 1B or DH, but that has become less common due to an emphasis on versatility. For the sake of this exercise, we’ll assume Votto retires at the end of spring. With his current numbers and resumé cemented to make his Hall of Fame case, do you think the 2010 NL MVP is a Hall of Famer?
Votto is one of the premier first basemen since the turn of the century. Since 2000, in fact, Votto is tied for 1st among first basemen with a 145 wRC+. Jason Giambi had a 145 wRC+ from 2000 to the end of his career. Lance Berkman and Hall of Famer Jim Thome are also at 145 wRC+ for this century. Votto has a leg up on a few of these top-end hitters from a defensive perspective, particularly guys like Giambi and Thome who really struggled at the position. While Votto is known for leading the league in OBP 7 times and winning the 2010 NL MVP award, he won a Gold Glove in 2011, too. Votto doesn’t have a batting title nor has he led the league in homers, he has some of the best all-time numbers at the position in the aggregate, depending on how much you value on-base percentage.
2000-2023, 1B wRC+ Leaders (Fangraphs)
Since the expansion era began in 1961, only two first basemen have gotten on base more frequently than Votto’s .409 – Hall of Famers Todd Helton and Frank Thomas. Helton played at Coors Field, the most hitter-friendly park in baseball, while Frank Thomas was a DH for half of his career. The counting stats don’t bode as well for Votto however, with his 356 homers ranking 26th since 1961 at the position, behind non-HOF players like Darrell Evans and Paul Konerko. There are a few Hall of Fame first basemen, like Orlando Cepeda for example, with lower production than Votto. The oft-injured Cepeda hit fewer HR than Votto, hit for a lower average, and got on base at a much lower percentage. Todd Helton was inducted this year with a lower fWAR than Votto (54.9% to 58.3%) despite playing at Coors Field in Colorado for his entire career. Helton had a very similar profile to Votto, with a .414 career OBP and a balance of pure hitting and power. Now, Helton does have the batting title that Votto lacks, but Joey has an MVP and that's an even more impressive accomplishment.
MLB fWAR Leaders at 1B in Modern ERA (Fangraphs)
The argument against Votto is exemplified with very good players not getting in – emboldening the folks who argue against Votto’s candidacy. There are a few, including Keith Hernandez, John Olerud, and the late Dick Allen. John Olerud had a similar skillset to Votto and Helton, with high contact and plate discipline that resulted in a 1993 batting title and two World Series Rings. Keith Hernandez won an MVP award in 1979, 2X WS, and is considered by some as the best defensive first basemen of all time, with 11 Gold Gloves. Dick Allen was also an MVP, and hit .296/.388/.563 from 1966 to 1974.
1966-1974 HR Leaders Among 1B (Fangraphs)
Hernandez and Allen have higher fWAR than Votto, while Olerud and Keith Hernandez played much longer with better defensive resumes. Dick Allen didn’t play as long, but had offensive dominance during his time that Votto never really had, especially from a power-hitting standpoint. To that end, I do believe the case for Votto is closer than many believe, a borderline player who in my opinion is not a Hall of Famer if Keith Herandez and Dick Allen aren’t. I know it’s tempting to tell folks what they want to hear, and confirmation bias is a powerful phenomenon. If Helton and Cepeda are in, Votto has a case as there is clearly not a purely objective formula to Cooperstown. If I’m voting, I’d likely have to sleep on it, but I’d be voting no for the 1st year at least.
*Stats are as of 3/10/2024