Grading the Dylan Cease Trade
Dylan Cease of the San Diego Padres (Associated Press)
Chris Getz and the White Sox front office have been patiently waiting for the right package in exchange for All Star, Dylan Cease. They asked for too much from the Orioles who ended up pivoting to Corbin Burnes. The Yankees were also rumored to be heavily-interested in Cease, but in the end, Cease is off to San Diego to twirl the pill as a Padre. Ultimately, American League teams win on some margin by seeing Cease traded to the National League. One of the key points to watch is how Cease fares in the star-studded NL West over the next two years, after a successful era in the weaker AL Central division. Ostensibly, the White Sox have a clear vision now, after adding prospects into their top 20 from multiple trades in the last year, including Edgar Quero (#5) and Ky Bush (#20) from the Giolito trade. The Sox also acquired Prelander Berroa (#19) from Seattle in the Gregory Santos deal and Dominic Fletcher (#16) from Arizona on the same day. In the Lance Lynn deal with the Dodgers, they acquired Nick Nastrini (#8) and Jordan Leasure (#18), while flipping Burger for Jake Eder (#10) last year. Now they’ve added even more in a haul from San Diego while the Padres make their 2024 push.
Padres: B
After acquiring Drew Thorpe as the centerpiece of the Juan Soto deal, AJ Preller confused the baseball world by immediately trading Drew Thorpe as part of a package to acquire Dylan Cease. I think many, including myself, saw the Padres as a fringe playoff team severely lacking outfielders and starting pitching depth. Though digging some more depth by acquiring four starters in the Soto trade, the Padres’ pitching staff effectively gained only Michael King – the only established big league pitcher in the deal, and he’s only started 19 games in the MLB. In acquiring two years of Dylan Cease, the Padres now have a top four consisting of Cease, Musgrove, Darvish, and King. The Padres led the MLB with a 3.69 starting pitching ERA, yet lost Snell, Lugo, and Michael Wacha to free agency. I think this rotation has a chance to be a top five rotation in the league again, and Preller did it without having to actually hand out a free agent contract.
2024 Padres Depth Chart (Fangraphs)
Since the Padres simultaneously traded Juan Soto and offloaded prospects in one offseason, one could arguably rate the Padres’ winter months as a bit of a question mark. I choose to see it as Preller threading the needle, since he really doesn’t have much of a choice. Darvish is 37, while Joe Musgrove, Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts are all on the wrong side of 30. Furthermore, rising star Ha Seong Kim is a free agent at the end of the year, as he’s almost a lock to reject a $7M mutual option. The Padres didn’t even try to offer Juan Soto an extension, presumably because they couldn’t afford it and perhaps also because they had no shot of keeping him. Much has been made about the Padres debt and financial situation, and we know for certain that resetting the CBT was a top priority after paying $39.7M in luxury taxes last year. In trading Soto, and finding a way to acquire Cease, Preller has managed to slash their payroll by almost $80M while putting together a competitive roster for 2024 and keeping their top four prospects.
White Sox: B+
Since the White Sox didn’t get either of the Padres’ top two prospects, Jackson Merrill or Ethan Salas, I don’t think you can give them an A grade. That said, acquiring three top 10 prospects for your system in one day is a huge win for the White Sox pipeline. Furthermore, they did manage to acquire high-leverage reliever Steven Wilson, who will be trade deadline material if he performs in the first half this season. It’s hard to argue with that return for only two years of club control, particularly when you consider Dylan is ultimately coming off a down year (4.58 ERA). Drew Thorpe’s main strength is his 70 grade changeup, while his strong command gives him a floor of a 5th starter even if the fastball doesn’t get better. Some think Samuel Zavala is a future star, while others think he hasn’t progressed enough in his last couple pro seasons. He has a career .841 OPS in the minor leagues and has a strong arm in the outfield. Staying in center field creates more than one path to the MLB, but most scouts seem to think he’s a right fielder. Rated at #9 in the White Sox system now, Jairo Iriarte has three plus pitches and should be a high leverage reliever. But, if he can throw strikes consistently, he may be a mid-rotation starter with an All Star ceiling. With these three guys, the White Sox system got much better overnight, and Getz was able to find starting pitching not far from contributing in the Major Leagues. Since young starting pitching is the most valuable commodity in the Major Leagues, it’s difficult to find suitors willing to part with high-end young arms.
2024 White Sox Pipeline (MLB Pipeline)
Now of course, there is the hangover of losing Dylan Cease for 2024. They’ve parted ways with Burger, Santos, Cease, and more since the trade deadline last season. You have to imagine Eloy Jimenez is gone at the 2024 deadline with a big first half, while even Luis Robert Jr. has potential to be dealt at some point this year. It’s painful for White Sox fans to smash their roster to pieces during this rebuild, but the reality is Cease had only started one playoff game in four years for Chicago and he wasn’t going to pitch in another. Heck, Roberts Jr. has four more years of team control and I’m not sure if Robert Jr. will play in a meaningful game unless he gets traded beforehand. It’s not impossible that the White Sox are competitive in 2026 or 2027 with all of the prospects they’re collecting, but I think the package for Roberts will be too attractive to resist for Chris Getz. Someone will offer that top 20 prospect Getz is looking for in order to capture lighting in a bottle. A five tool superstar like Robert Jr. immediately propels your roster to another level, and the right return would immediately give the Sox a top 10 farm system in baseball.
*Stats are as of 3/15/24