Is Scott Boras Still the Best?
Scott Boras (Bleacher Nation)
Remember Andy Benes or Scott Van Poppel? Scott Boras does, because he made a name for himself by netting record-setting, amateur bonuses with each guy. Back in 1988 during the pre-internet era, Boras was able to garner a $235,000 bonus for Benes, the largest draft bonus in MLB history at the time. In 1990, Boras got Van Poppel a $1.2M Major League contract, including a $500,000 cash bonus. One of his first major free agent deals was Greg Maddux, when he smashed the current record contract by $9M and got Maddux $28M guaranteed over five years. His meteoric rise in the 90’s included representing A-Rod in the draft, getting Bernie Williams paid by the Yankees, and representing Adrian Beltre in a grievance against the Dodgers. Representing Alex Rodriguez was a crucial piece in Boras becoming #1, and these record setting contracts put him on the radar of both the MLB Union and the players as the agent who can maximize their earnings.
Fast forward, and players largely still believe this – at least until this winter. While Jordan Montgomery and JD Martinez are still unsigned, here are the major contracts Boras has netted this offseason-
Cody Bellinger: 3 years, $80M with opt-outs
Blake Snell: 2 years, $62M with an opt-out
Matt Chapman: 3 years, $54M with opt-outs
Now when you look at these numbers, you’re probably remiss about players losing money and getting $60M instead of $100+ million and more guaranteed years on their deal. I get that, but you have to apply context to truly understand these players’ mindsets. For one, they’ve been working their entire professional career with the hope of reaching the market. Very few guys get to that, especially pitchers, when you consider the ever-increasing injury factor. While players are hitting the injured list at record clips, the median MLB career is about 5.6 years and only about 10% of minor league players will ever play in the Major Leagues. Once you debut in the show, your work has only begun. You need 3 years of pre-arbitration and arbitration for a total of 6 years of club control. Of course, teams don’t pay for your past performance, and by that I mean you have to be at the top of your game when you hit the free agent market. Take for example, Jung Hoo Lee, who signed with the Giants for $113M guaranteed despite never playing in a Major League game. That said, he is an MVP from the KBO, and he projects somewhere between everyday outfielder and All Star in the MLB. Boras was able to net him a nice deal in December based on future performance prediction and the timing of the signing (earlier in the offseason).
2024 Offseason Largest MLB Signings (Spotrac)
So when you win your 2nd Cy Young award, you probably expect that you’ll get at least five guaranteed years on your contract with a salary trending toward the top of the league. Unfortunately for Blake Snell, front offices looked at the lack of innings over his career, the walk rates, the strand rates, and determined that essentially he was lucky last year. While that may be partially true, Snell objectively has elite stuff that creates major swing and miss numbers. When you generate swing and miss, you’re going to trend toward a higher strand rate, and Snell will always have the higher walk rate due to his pitching style. The thing is, Boras did field a six year, $150M offer from the Yankees for Snell. I understand that it’s not the $200M he was expecting, but declining it resulted in his free agency experience going south. Other teams didn’t want to offer him five or six years, and the Yankees didn’t want to bid against themselves. Both Houston and New York balked at the pricing Boras proposed for Snell, until the lack of interest drove Snell to interest in a short term, high AAV deal that got him less money than 40 year Justin Verlander did.
Blake Snell 2023 Pitching Performance (Baseball Savant)
The story is similar for both Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger; front offices weren’t wooed by the Boras sales pitch for each of these All Stars. Teams were concerned about Chapman’s contact rates, while Cody Bellinger didn’t get the exit velocity and barrel rates that teams want to see in a star player. While neither player is perfect, Boras had plenty to work with in his pitch to Major League clubs. Bellinger is an MVP who can play center field or first base at a high level, and he just put up a .370 wOBA in 2023. Matt Chapman has taken a step back defensively from his Platinum Glove days but he’s still very good at third. He’s also a strong power-hitter who can crush the ball, as evidenced by his 17.1% barrel rate (98th percentile), 93.4% exit velocity (98th), and 56.4% hard hit (100th). If Boras can't get a guy like that a 4 or 5 year deal, perhaps he needs to re-examine his process.
Matt Chapman 2023 Batting Metrics (Baseball Savant)
Now I know that Kiké Hernandez went on Foul Territory and mentioned collusion, while several players have made vague references of front offices using the same evaluation systems and formulas. I know that Boras has been selling that to his clients, and there may be some truth to it. That said, you can simply look at the deals signed earlier in the offseason and see that Boras mistimed the market. He overplayed his hand, and now his guys are missing out on a payday, bottom line. Seth Lugo got 3 years, $45M, but he could only get Chapman a 3 years for 54M pillow deal? For position context, Jeimer Candelario got 3 years, $45M, too – and I love the deal for the Reds – but how does Chapman only get $9M more than Jeimer Candelario – a guy who’s probably a first baseman for most of this contract anyway? Last time I checked, Jeimer doesn’t have the power Chapman has either. Rhys Hoskins tore his ACL at the end of 2022, hasn’t played in a year and a half, and got 2 yrs/ $34M guaranteed in a deal with Milwaukee. Yet somehow, JD Martinez can’t get a deal despite hitting 33 homers and driving in a hundred runs yet again?
Boras has Pete Alonso, Juan Soto, and Corbin Burnes to represent next winter. We will have to track his process, and see if he makes adjustments to the market. Purely from a fan standpoint, I’d prefer to see the market develop earlier with blue chip signings in the Winter Meetings, so this is not the worst case for me. It’s not good news for his clients this winter though; not many guys get a large second contract. You usually get one chance at the bag. Your agent selection is critical to find the right fit, the right contract and do so at the right time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Boras
*Stats are as of 3/20/24