PC Top 5 Righty Starters in the MLB
Spencer Strider of the Atlanta Braves (The Athletic)
To be clear, I am compiling this list after the injury news of reigning AL Cy Young award winner, Gerrit Cole, so things might look a bit different. Cole aside, the right-handed starter list is still deeper than that of the lefties, and for that reason we did not have room for the workhorses like Jose Berrios or Aaron Nola. We also could not consider high-end guys with extensive injury histories — Tyler Glasnow, for example. Earning a spot in this list is a combination of ace stuff: innings, command, and reliability when you need them most. Also, shoutout to Justin Verlander, who has the lowest ERA (2.45) in the MLB over the last three seasons. Unfortunately, he didn’t make the top 5 due to a combination of a nagging shoulder injury, age, and a huge drop of K-rate last year (21.5%). Finally, injured arms like Brandon Woodruff and Sandy Alcantara are not considered for this 2024 list.
5) Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays
Gausy just turned 33 in January, and his time in Toronto couldn’t be going better than it has over the last couple seasons. Gausman came up with Baltimore and struggled with consistency before becoming a frontline starter for the Giants. Over the last three seasons, he’s become a workhorse with 95 starts and a 3.10 ERA in over 550 innings. A large part of that success can be attributed to his splitter, which has a 115 stuff+ over the last three seasons. Only Eovaldi and Ohtani had better stuff+ grades from 2021-2023, while Kevin’s splitter had a .176 xBA last season.
2021-2023 Stuff + Ratings on Splitters
4) Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants
Webb is the ground ball king, and Matt Chapman was the right fit at third base to turn all those double plays for Logan. Webb will have a K-rate somewhere between 20-22%, since he relies more on command and ground balls than swing and miss. Webb is a certified ace in his own right, having put up elite numbers for three consecutive years. For context on the ground ball rate, he led the MLB in 2023 with a 62.1% rate, higher than both Framber Valdez and Zach Eflin.
2023 GB Rate MLB Leaders (Fangraphs)
3) Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
The newly-extended member of the Phillies has built a Postseason reputation. Wheeler has cemented his status as an ace after being branded a mid-rotation starter with the Mets, prior to his tenure in Philadelphia. It’s rare that a starter gets better after signing a free agent deal, but that’s exactly what happened after Wheeler went to Philadelphia: he left 5 years of a 3.77 ERA behind in the Big Apple, sharpening to a 3.06 ERA with the Phils. He’s also carried the Phillies to multiple NLCS appearances, with a 2.42 ERA in 11 Postseason starts over the last two seasons. It certainly doesn’t hurt that he plays his position either, winning his first Gold Glove last year.
2023 Zack Wheeler Career Stats (bRef)
2) Corbin Burnes, Baltimore Orioles
Corbin has a big change this year after having spent his whole MLB career in the NL Central. The AL East is a different beast, featuring hitters like Vlad Jr., Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, and Rafael Devers. Burnes is the man for the challenge, though, with an MLB-leading 2.94 ERA from 2021-2023 among pitchers with at least 500 innings of work. Corbin also has some of the best stuff in the league, with an MLB-leading 127 stuff+ rating. The combination of command, stuff, and durability gives Burnes a strong argument as the best pitcher in the American League right now and the leading candidate for the AL Cy Young.
2023 MLB Stuff + Rankings (Fangraphs)
1) Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves
As you can see in the graphic above, Strider has a ridiculous fastball. The 141 stuff+ fastball allowed him to succeed with only two pitches, but his new splitter has looked nasty so far in spring. If the splitter is effective on a consistent basis, Strider could become the best pitcher in baseball overnight. He’s already the sole threat for 300 strikeouts this year, even without the splitter. However, he has been susceptible to the home run ball in the past, especially when the command of his fastball isn’t there. He’s only 25, so there’s a good chance Strider has some ceiling left. I’d love to see three dominant pitches and a few Cy Young awards. As you may have noticed, we have Max Fried as the top lefty for 2024 here, so it’s fair to say the Braves are in line for another dominant season.