Is the Pirates Hot Start Meaningful?
Photo of Andrew McCutchen (Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
The Pirates started 5-0 for the first time since 1983, and look to be on the upswing for the first time in years. I’m happy for Andrew McCutchen, who has yet to play on a division-winning Bucs team. The Pirates were dead last in the NL Central for three consecutive years from 2019-2021 before finishing 4th out of 5 Central teams in 2022 and 2023. They’ve seen their win total climb from 62 wins in 2022 to 76 wins in 2023, and now they’re 7-2 to kick off 2024. Can Pirates fans finally get excited about their club? Perhaps more importantly, will October baseball be played in Pittsburgh this year?
The Pirates offense has been a top 10 unit through its first nine games, including a .366 OBP. Now, the Pirates may have some regression eventually, but it’s still a positive indicator to see the offense off to a good start, particularly when you have core guys like Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds hitting. New acquisition Michael A. Taylor has been on fire in his first several games, while Oneil Cruz is working to make an impact this year after coming off of a broken ankle in 2023. Pirates’ GM Ben Cherington made the shrewd move to add Taylor this winter, but they did relatively little else to improve the offense overall this offseason. The Pirates hit only .239 last year, while ranking 28th out of 30 teams with 159 home runs in 2023. They have some young guys like Oneil Cruz who can take a step forward, but this is probably a middle-of-the-pack offense in the big leagues unless they add some juice at the trade deadline. If they do manage to find themselves in the hunt at the break, could they be in on someone like Pete Alonso?
MLB Teams with least Home Runs in 2023 (Fangraphs)
As you can see below, the Pirates are projected by Fangraphs to finish at 81-81 despite their fast start. Fangraphs gives them a 28.2% chance of a playoff berth, and I would contend it’s a bit higher than that. Yet, to me the biggest obstacle is neither the offense, the defense, nor the bullpen. The major weakness for this club is starting pitching, with only Mitch Keller and Johan Oviedo throwing over 120 innings last season. Unfortunately, Johan Oviedo had to get Tommy John last fall, which knocked him out for all of 2024. This hurt an already thin rotation, and added pressure onto the Pirates front office to bring in arms. Keller also struggled significantly down the stretch, with a 5.59 ERA and a noticeable 17.5% HR/FB rate. The Pirates need him to find his All Star form from 2023, when he had a 3.31 ERA and sparkling .278 wOBA. Cherington signed Martin Perez on a one year deal for $8M, and traded for Marco Gonzales to eat innings in the back of the rotation. Perez had a big year in 2022, but by most accounts is a back-end starter who lacks swing and miss stuff. He’s a valuable piece in the back of your rotation but you don’t want him as your second or third guy on your staff. Young prospect Jared Jones looked awesome in his debut, and projects as a mid to back rotation starter for his rookie campaign. #1 overall pick Paul Skenes is in AAA to avoid “Super two” status, but he should be up in the bigs by June. Skenes looks MLB-ready now, and if he excels this summer, this rotation has a chance to be decent without major additions. If there are injuries and/or the rookies aren’t great, this could be a long year for the Pirates pitching staff.
2024 NL Central Projections (Fangraphs)
When you put it all together, the Pirates resemble a team in the 77-82 win range by my estimate. The rotation was in the bottom third last year, but is a good bet to improve this year. The offense was bottom third as well, but projects to be roughly average this year with a few breakouts from Hayes and Cruz. The defense has a couple of Gold Glove guys in Hayes and Taylor, and not many significant liabilities on the diamond. The bullpen has David Bednar, Aroldis Chapman, and company. There is a window for the Pirates to win the division if they can thread the needle with enough offensive breakouts, healthy pitching, and a big trade deadline. They also likely need regression from the Cubs, and more disappointment in St. Louis. Of course, now they also have to contend with an emerging Reds club stacked with young talent, and the Brewers aren’t ready to disappear into the background, yet, either. Fangraphs gives Pittsburgh a 13.5% chance to win the division, which sounds about right. They have a path to October through the Wild Card seeding, but then you’re competing with solid NL teams outside of the Central like the Phillies, the Diamondbacks, and the Giants for those spots. The 2024 Pirates are similar to the 2022 and 2023 Reds; they don’t quite have the horses yet, but they’re getting close. The 2023 Reds saw breakouts from Matt McClain, TJ Friedl, Spencer Steer and more. I’d like to see the Pirates own that brand this season and go into 2025 as a force to be reckoned with.
*Stats are as of 4/6/24