Can Manny Machado get to 3000?
Manny Machado of the San Diego Padres (Gregory Bull / Associated Press)
Not enough guys getting to 3000 or even 2000 hits in today’s game. Batting averages have dropped significantly in the last 50 years. In fact, last year’s MLB average of .243 is actually the lowest since 1968, when the league hit .237. This is largely what precipitated many of the rule changes around the league, that and the speed of the game. When you look at the active hit leaders, there is a dropoff of over 1000 hits after legend Miggy Cabrera. Miggy has a 3168, and Joey Votto is second with 2135, but both are likely to retire. The active leader in 2024 will likely be Freddie Freeman, who is at 2109 hits after turning 34 a couple weeks ago. Is it possible Freddie gets to 3000 (Dan Szymborski answers here at Fangraphs if you’re interested)? Sure, it is. It is not, however, super likely that he puts up 900 hits from age 34 on. Derek Jeter put 1109 hits from age 34 on, while fellow recent inductee of the 300 club, Craig Biggio, put up 1192 from age 34 on.
(Source: Fangraphs.com)
If you want to scroll down to the next guy on the list who is younger than Freddie, you’ll find Manny Machado at #11 on the active list. Manny just turned 31 in July and has 1733 hits with a few games left in the season. Machado debuted at 19 years old back in 2012 and has been extremely durable (averaged 159 games from 2015 to 2019). This durability allows Manny to stay in the race for 3000 hits, in a time when very few even get to 2500 anymore. Can Manny become the 34th player in MLB history to get to 3000?
Machado needs 1267 hits from this point forward. Let’s take a look at how recent 3000 hit guys have done from their age 31 seasons on. Biggio got 1781 hits from his age 31 season until the end of his career. Adrian Beltre, who might be the best comparison for Manny as a fellow third baseman, got 1466 hits from his age 31 season until his retirement in 2018. From 2021-2023, Manny has averaged 155 hits over the last three seasons. Obviously, we can expect regression into his thirties, but Manny will need to stay healthy to reach 3000. Beltre averaged 139 games from age 31 to age 39, utilizing the DH spot more in his last couple seasons. Manny will also likely need to take the DH spot more and could even benefit from a move to first base in a few years to lessen the burden in the field.
ZIPS projects these hit totals for Manny in the next three years: 149, 142, 132. Now, these projections are also rooted in the assumption Manny is more of the .255 hitter he’s been this year than the .279 hitter he’s been over the life of his career. It is fair to assume it will be harder to keep the batting average up as his hands and legs slow down with age.
(Source: Fangraphs.com)
If we follow the ZIPS projections, that would put Machado at 2156 through his age 33 season. He’d be around the age Freddie is now with only about 50 more hits than Freeman has. Again, Freddie could get to 3000, but it seems less than likely unless he plays everyday close to 40 years old. The same could be the case for Manny, which is why I will make the case that Manny will need 150+ hits over each of the next three seasons to put himself in a good position for 3000 hits. Given his age and the possibility of injuries, he will need to hit higher than .260 to accomplish that goal. According to ZIPS, he has a 3% chance, but I wouldn’t bet against a guy like Manny Machado. I think he can do it and I will be rooting for Manny. It’s good for the game when players reach these milestones and the 3000 hit milestone has been significant for over 100 years. We need to cherish it, particularly since the days of 300 win pitchers are probably gone.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/can-freddie-freeman-re-open-the-3000-hit-club/
*Stats are as of 9/26/23