Why the 40/70 Is so Impressive
Ronald Acuña Jr. of the Atlanta Braves (Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Much as been made about how Acuña Jr. stopped a tight game against the Cubs to celebrate stolen base #70. Many non-Brave fans have pointed out that there is a surge in stolen bases this year, which is true, yet Acuña Jr. is the only guy with 70 stolen bases. He’s also the only 40/40 man this year and it’s not particularly close. In fact, there are only a handful of 40/40 seasons in the history of the game.
The members are:
Jose Canseco, 1988, 42 home runs, 40 stolen bases
Barry Bonds, 1996, 42 home runs, 40 stolen bases
Alex Rodriguez, 1998, 42 home runs, 46 stolen bases
Alfonso Soriano, 2006, 46 home runs, 41 stolen bases
This is a short list, but I’ll give you a few shorter lists: 40/50 club, 40/60 club, and 40/70 club. Of these three clubs, there is only one member. Acuña Jr. is king of the land of 40/70 and I don’t foresee anyone joining him in the next several seasons. It’s certainly possible, with the prime candidate being Bobby Witt Jr. In fact, Bobby is tied for 1st in sprint speed with the phenom Elly De La Cruz. If you are wondering where Acuña Jr. is, he is not even top 200 unless you filter for only qualified players (guys who have enough at bats for qualified status). In fact, Acuña Jr. has the same sprint speed as rookie catcher Korey Lee and slugger Jake Burger. Burger has one stolen base in 205 games. When you contextualize this, it makes Acuña Jr.’s accomplishment even more unbelievable. His success rate this season is 82.3%, (70/85), which is considerably above the league average of 80.19%. Despite Acuña Jr.’s lack of speed, he’s found a way to steal even when everyone knows he’s planning on it.
Of course, outside of the stolen bases, it is extraordinary to see Acuña Jr. hit 40 home runs. What makes this really impressive in my opinion, is Acuña Jr.’s durability. His per 162 game average is 39 home runs in his career, so he is used to playing at a 40 HR pace. He’s played in 156 games this season, having only missed three. In today’s sports environment, a superstar playing 98% of his club’s games is highly unusual. This criteria made the 40/70 season possible for Acuña Jr. The second, obviously, is his pure ability to steal despite lacking the elite speed that many others have. I would love to see someone breakdown what it is that makes Acuña Jr. such an elite base stealer. Maybe that will be my next article.
Should Acuña Jr. win MVP? I’m not sure, but I don’t have to worry too much about it since I’m not a voter. I’m sitting pretty firmly on the fence right now between him and Betts and I would have definitely said Betts prior to Acuña Jr.’s historic accomplishment. Now, it’s one of the closest MVP races in this generation. I believe Acuña Jr. will win, as writers love to see records established and broken. I'd be shocked if he didn’t get his 1st MVP this season.
*Stats are as of 9/28/23