A Critical Weekend for the MLB Playoff Picture
Justin Verlander of the Houston Astros (Sports Illustrated)
As I write, Toronto is pulling Hyun Jin Ryu after just three innings, which gives you a glimpse of just how important this weekend is for a team like Toronto. They have a 94.7% chance of securing a Wild Card, but still need to win tonight or hope the DBacks win over the Astros to secure a Wild Card. They are at risk of dropping to the 6th seed in the AL, as they would lose the tiebreaker to Houston if they ended up with the same record. Entering play today, the Jays are 89-71, while the Astros are 88-72. Tomorrow is the regular season finale for Toronto and they have not yet announced the pitching matchup. The Jays only have a 100 wRC+ in the last two weeks, so their bats need to get going to match the Tampa offense.
In the Astros-Dbacks series, Arizona has to find a way to get to Justin Verlander tonight. A DBacks win would clinch a playoff berth for Arizona, as well as Toronto. Houston has the veteran presence and playoff experience for meaningful games such as these, so Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks will need to stay locked in to close the door on Houston tonight. If they fail, they’ll have one more chance tomorrow afternoon to get the win they’ll need. Houston, on the other hand, needs a magic number of two for Mariner loss and Astro wins combined in the next two days. Houston needs trade deadline acquisition Justin Verlander to maintain the 3.57 ERA performance he’s had since the deal. It is a concern, however, that Verlander has a 12.1% barrel rate since the deadline, indicating that the 3.57 ERA is at least in part good fortune.
(Fangraphs.com)
Finally, in Seattle this weekend Luis Castillo faces off against Andrew Heaney with Kirby expected to pitch tomorrow for the Mariners. The Rangers bullpen is much maligned at this point and for good reason. They’re also pretty taxed, especially after having to put in six innings of work last night in the blowout. Texas must to find a way to avoid the sweep and win one of the two matchups. The Mariners need to sweep and for the Astros to lose to advance this weekend. Seattle has cause to root against Verlander tonight, as the Jays do.
*Stats are as of 9/30/23