My MLB Playoff Bracket Explained
My playoff bracket has a few twists and turns on it. As expected, I don’t have the two weakest teams, the Marlins and the Diamondbacks, advancing to the NLDS. I don’t see the Dbacks overcoming Milwaukee’s starting rotation of Burnes, Peralta, and Miley, especially with the way Arizona’s offense has struggled in the 2nd Half (90 wRC+ in 2ndH). The Marlins are strikeout prone and are also missing their ace, Sandy Alcantara. His loss is too much for a borderline average club to get past, especially against a Phillies team that advanced to the World Series in 2022. I went contrarian with most of my bracket, but I’m going to outline the biggest decisions.
Rangers over Rays | Wild Card +130
Obviously, there is warranted concern for the Texas bullpen (4.77 ERA in the 2ndH) and Nathan Eovaldi is not the same since he’s been back. However, Tampa has really cooled off since their hot start at the beginning of the season. They did pick it up down the stretch, but I question which version of this club is the one we’ll see for the series. Texas’s offense may also have the highest ceiling of any offense in the American League this season. In June, the Rangers offense hit .274/.347/.474 with a 123 wRC+. Rays have a 116 wRC+ in the second half, while Texas sits at 110. I have Texas stealing Game 1 and finishing this series off in Game 2. Zach Eflin will be tough to beat tomorrow.
Twins over Astros | ALDS
The Twins actually have the 2nd best offense in the AL since the break (124 wRC+ to Houston’s 127). Houston's rotation has a 4.74 ERA in the second half, with Framber, Javier, and France all seeing a large decline from their first half performances. Verlander has good surface stats, but boasts a nightmarish 11.9% barrel rate. Rookie Hunter Brown has a 6.90 ERA in his last 12 starts and is essentially unplayable this postseason. The Twins, on the other hand, have Lopez, Gray, and Maeda. Joe Ryan has slipped significantly, which limits their options if they aren’t confident in him. The Astros bullpen was 3rd in the American League in the 2nd Half, while the Twins finished 7th. Ryan Pressly has struggled recently, but guys like Hector Neris and Bryan Abreu have been dominant. Astros hold the advantage late, so the Twins starters need to show up.
(Chart is 2nd Half AL Offense Rankings)
Brewers over Dodgers | ALDS
Hopefully Brandon Woodruff is back for this series, adding to the already elite rotation of Burnes, Peralta, and Miley. The Brewers rotation was 3rd in the MLB in the second half, with a 3.68 ERA. The Dodgers rotation faced several injuries this season, in addition to significant regression from Clayton Kershaw and a legal incident regarding Julio Urias. Kershaw had a dazzling 2.46 ERA this season, but the velocity is a couple ticks down and scouts think he looks washed. The xERA (3.79) is way higher than his season results, so the Dodgers will need vintage Kershaw for one more postseason. Offensively, the Dodgers have punch at the top of the line (e.g. Betts, Freeman) that the Brewers don’t have. The Dodgers have the second best offense in the NL behind Atlanta, while Milwaukee struggles to post average production. They did however, have a strong September (106 wRC+). The Dodgers have the more dominant bullpen albeit with some good luck, but I am counting on elite starts and a couple clutch hits to get the Brewers to the NLCS.
(Chart is 2nd Half ERA Rankings for NL Starting Rotations)
Phillies over Braves | ALDS
The Phillies pulled it off in 2022 and I expect a repeat this season. The Braves offense is probably the best in the league, but the Phillies are no slouches either. Philly only had a 101 wRC+ in September, meaning they’ve cooled down since their blistering August. Wheeler gives Philly an advantage but there is valid concern with Nola and the rest of the rotation for Philly. Atlanta has one of the worst rotations in the bracket right now, which is really what creates an opportunity for Philly. Strider’s two pitch arsenal could be a problem against this star studded lineup. The Phillies had the 3rd best pen in the 2nd half, and the Braves finished 7th. I see this series as a dice roll and it’ll probably go 5 games.
Rangers over Phillies | World Series
(Rangers are +1600 to win WS)
The Phillies have the scary lineup, the ace, and the solid bullpen. I have some concerns that Philly’s bullpen overperformed down the stretch, while Texas’s bullpen drastically underperformed. These things should regress to the mean this October, but I do think Eovaldi is a key problem for Texas. He will either need to get back to early season form, or that production will need to be provided by an unlikely Rangers hero. Both of these offenses can bang– expect some fireworks. The concerns with the Philly rotation will be too much to overcome and Texas will jump all over Nola and Suarez.
*Stats are as of 10/2/23