3 Takeaways from the Wild Card Round
Vlad Guerrero Jr. Picked off by Sonny Gray and Carlos Correa (ESPN)
1) Embarrassing Attendance at the Trop
The Rangers made quick work of Tampa Bay with a combined score of 11-1 over the two game sweep. Despite this, the larger story was Tropicana Field’s record setting attendance (or lack thereof). The 19,704 attendance count in Game 1 was the worst in 104 years, when the infamous Black Sox scandal occurred. The 1919 playoffs were played a few months after the Treaty of Versailles, so you could certainly consider this Rays blunder historic. Game 2 was 20,198, which is not much better. For comparison, here is a breakdown by Sports Illustrated: “In total, across the Rays’ two home postseason games, there were a combined 39,901 fans in attendance. The combined recorded attendance at Tropicana Field for Games 1 and 2 was smaller than the attendance of the postseason series openers in Philadelphia and Milwaukee, and just barely surpassed the attendance for Game 1 in Minnesota. Game 1 of the Phillies-Marlins Wild Card series at Citizens Bank Park had a recorded attendance of 45,662. 40,892 fans were at American Family Field for the series opener between the Diamondbacks and Brewers. 38,450 people attended the first game of the Blue Jays vs. Twins series at Target Field.”
2) Twins Curse is Over
After 18 consecutive playoff losses, the Minnesota Twins snapped their October draught winning Game 1, 3-1 over the Toronto Blue Jays and got the proverbial monkey off of their back. They hadn’t won a game since 2004 and most fans had them losing to Toronto despite Minnesota being home for the series and being favored by Vegas. Royce hit 2 HR as a rookie in a playoff, which is pretty rare. However, the core of the story is how the Twins pitching staff dominated. The Twins scored 5 runs over 2 games, but only allowed one run to a high powered Jays offense that features stars like Guerrero Jr and Bo Bichette. Pablo Lopez went 5 ⅔ in game 1, giving up the run in the series to a 2 out RBI by Kevin Kiermaier. The bullpen got 10 outs in Game 1 and 12 outs in Game 2. Sonny Gray was also stellar, going 5 innings and shutting the Jays out in the first half of the game. This is an embarrassing outcome for Toronto. They’ve been ousted early in back to back years. The Twins, on the other hand, have finally won a playoff series and anything they can accomplish against Houston is gravy. For what it’s worth, I have them upsetting the Astros (+130) and losing to Texas in the ALCS.
3) Diamondbacks are the Cinderella
Anyone who follows us knows I like interval statistics, particularly 2nd half stats when we are discussing the playoffs. The Dbacks entered the Wild Card Series with the weakest 2nd half offense in the bracket (90 wRC+). They also had the worst rotation ERA (4.67) and the third worst bullpen ERA (4.22) among playoff teams since the All Star break. Bottom line, they rivaled the Marlins for the worst playoff team and very well may be worse than Miami. However, they wreaked havoc on the bases and played solid defense. They had some huge hits ( see Christian Walker vs Devin Williams) and proved anything can happen in a 3 game series. Their starting pitching isn’t great and they project poorly in a longer series than a short one. They face long odds at +190 vs the Dodgers, but I would take a second look at this value as the Dodgers starting rotation is severely lacking. Kershaw has regressed, Urias is unavailable due to legal troubles, and they’ve had multiple injuries. Lance Lynn shouldn’t be -200 against anybody, so I would certainly keep an eye for opportunities to back the Cinderella of the 2023 Postseason!
https://www.si.com/mlb/2023/10/04/rays-attendance-woes-combined-game-1-game-2-crowds-comparison
*Stats are as of 10/5/23