A Division Series Preview
Division Series Matchups (Graphic via Fox Sports MLB)
Phillies vs Braves
Here we are again with a matchup reminiscent of the 2022 season when the Phillies beat the Braves 3-1 to advance to the NLCS. The Phillies scored six with no earned runs from Aaron Nola in his start, while the Rangers and Noah Syndergaard put together solid starts as well. Wheeler went 6 innings and 3 runs, while the bullpen was electric throughout the series. The Braves had the opposite experience. Strider was rocked and Fried and Morton weren’t good either. The Phillies will need to get to Strider and Fried again to win this series and they must win a game in Atlanta. This year’s Braves offense is way better than the 2021 championship team (99 wRC+), posting a ridiculous 125 wRC+ over a full season as a team. Philly can win the series, but not without tagging an Atlanta starter once or twice.
Top 2023 MLB Offenses (Fangraphs)
The Braves’ 5.10 2nd H Starter ERA is a bit misleading in the sense that their top three guys have pitched well (Strider 4.39 ERA but 2.90 FIP, Fried 2.79 ERA, Morton 3.93). Elder and the rest of the back end have struggled significantly, but they won’t start in the best of five series. On the Philly side, Ranger Suarez is definitely having a down year (4.57 ERA in 2nd Half), but gets the ball for Game 1 regardless. Wheeler has been a true ace and looks like one of the best free agent signings the Phillies have made in recent memory. Aaron Nola is the most concerning of the three, with a 4.58 ERA since the break and downtick in velocity since last season. He pitched well against the Marlins, but the Braves won’t chase the way Miami did. Offensively, the Phillies have a significant disadvantage against one of the best offenses in history. The Braves are loaded from 1-9 and Philly will need to hit the way they did in August to extend this series to five games. It goes without saying they will need back end relievers like Kimbrel and Alvarado to show up.
Prediction: Phillies win in 5
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers
DBacks will need to leverage their strength, baserunning, and defense to have a shot in this series against the juggernaut of the NL West. Clayton Kershaw dominated the Arizona offense in his two starts against them this year, giving up only two runs in 11 innings of work. The Dodgers will likely throw rookie Bobby Miller for Game 2 and potentially Lance Lynn for Game 3. This is a bit of a longshot for the Snakes, but the silver lining is the Dodger rotation is decimated from a combination of injuries, legal troubles, etc.
Dodgers Starting Pitching Depth Chart (Roster Resource)
The Dodgers will have to fend off a hungry and young Arizona team by getting their front end starters Gallen and Kelly. The Dodgers pen dominated with a 2.26 ERA in the second half and I think that will be the demise of the Dbacks, who have a reliever ERA almost twice as high since the break (4.49). If the Dodgers do lose Game 1 or Game 2, don’t be surprised if the Dbacks pounce and steal the series. The Dbacks lineup faded at the end of the year, but has potential to do damage (112 wRC+ in June). They also stole 166 bases this season, good for 2nd in the MLB behind the Reds. The athleticism could make this interesting, but in the end the top of the Dodgers lineup and shutdown bullpen is too much to overcome.
Prediction: Dodgers win in 4
Rangers vs Orioles
The O’s will go Bradish for Game 1, Grayson for Game 2, and I would expect them to use either John Means or Dean Kremer for Game 3. The Rangers, on the other hand, just announced they’ll go with Andrew Heaney for Game 1 and Jordan Montgomery for Game 2. Even without Felix Bautista, Baltimore holds a significant bullpen advantage over Texas, with Will Smith and company really struggling down the stretch. The Orioles offense was one of the best in the league this season, but they cooled off in September, with a .316 wOBA and 102 wRC+. The Rangers had the 2nd best offense in the AL behind Tampa this season and they’re the offense I’d want to avoid in the American League for this October. Pay attention to leadoff hitter Marcus Semien, as the best months this offense had coincided with his hottest streaks of the season. It’s no coincidence– he’s the catalyst of the offense and this team can pull 5+ runs every day when he’s on a heater. Cedric Mullins could be the X factor for Baltimore as a major contributor with a paltry .209/.249/.386 line in the second half. If Mullins is producing at the bottom of this lineup, it turns the lineup back over to Gunnar, Adley and the boys.
Obviously, Texas can’t sustain a bullpen with an ERA close to 5.00 against a team like Baltimore. If they do, they’ll lose and Baltimore is going to the ALCS. I attribute some of it to bad luck and expect some positive regression from arms like Chapman and Sborz. The Baltimore pen is strong, but they were overused this year and the #1 closer in baseball likely won’t be available until 2025. Their bullpen looked much scarier with Bautista pitching the 9th and I have Texas taking it the whole way for their 1st World Series Championship. An ALCS berth would be their first since 2011, when they got there in back to back seasons.
Prediction: Rangers in 5
Twins vs Astros
The Twins pitching took over and dominated Toronto’s hitters. I expect them to hold their own against this Houston offense. The Astros have won the ALDS and advanced to the ALCS from 2017-2022, six seasons in a row. However, the Twins offense was 2nd in post All Star break production to Houston. They are a formidable matchup for the AL West titan. Furthermore, Minnesota holds the advantage over Houston in the starting pitching category, being able to use a combination of Ober, Gray, Maeda, and Lopez. I wouldn’t expect them to start Joe Ryan given their depth, as he’s struggled mightily since the early months of the season. Houston has Verlander, Framber, Javier, and France. I wouldn't use their young guy, Hunter Brown, as he’s struggled recently the way Joe Ryan has. Only Verlander has been good the last few months and even he has an ever increasing barrel rate and a home run rate of 1.19 HR/9 since the trade deadline. Framber needs to regain his form and Javier needs to pitch with command for Houston to match the Twins arms.
ALCS year by year (Baseball Reference)
Houston’s bullpen is a decent margin better than the Twins, so they could have opportunities to come back if they fall behind early. It’s important for the Twins starters to pitch efficiently to avoid taxing the bullpen and enable themselves to utilize their guys for the right matchups. The Houston offense also has an advantage not just statistically, but also in terms of experience in October. Guys like Altuve, Yordan, and Bregman have been here for years and they’re likely going to be more comfortable than Minnesota hitters, particularly the younger guys. Evenstill, the starting pitching edge is too much to ignore for me. I expect Minnesota to have a couple big hits to back their staff up and get a berth for the ALCS for the 1st time since 2002.
Prediction: Twins in 4
*Stats are as of 10/6/23