Can the Yankees Bounce Back?
Juan Soto and Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees (Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
First, Freddie Freeman hit his walk off granny in game one with Nestor Cortes on the bump. Last night, the Dodgers hit three homers off of Carlos Rodón, while Yamamoto was able to shut down the Yankee hitters. After Yamamoto threw six and a third innings, the Dodgers’ stable got the remaining eight outs, from a combination of Anthony Banda, Michael Kopech, Blake Treinen, and Alex Vesia. Sunday is an off day, with the series starting back up in New York on Monday at 8:08 PM first pitch local time. The Yankees have a must win at home against a struggling Walker Buehler in game three, with Luis Gil scheduled to take the mound for game four. Can the Yankees make this a series or will the Dodgers roll out of the Bronx with a ring? Here are a few needed performances for New York to defy the odds.
1.Clarke Schmidt needs to shove in Game 3
Game three is essentially an elimination game, since the Yankees would need to win out if they lose on Monday. Clarke Schmidt was in the midst of a career year before suffering a right lat injury back in May. Schmidt has started five regular season games since his injury, going 0-2 with a 3.65 ERA. He’s also had two postseason starts, giving up two runs in 4 ⅔ innings of work in each appearance against the Royals and Guardians respectively. Obviously, the Yankees could use 18 outs from Clarke instead of the 14 outs he’s provided in each of his first two October starts. While Schmidt ascended in 2024, Walker Bueher, has descended since his elbow injury. Buehler hadn’t pitched since 2022, so we knew there would be some rust. Unfortunately, the rust hasn’t worn off to the extent many expected, and Buehler finished with a 5.38 ERA this season. In 2021, Buehler had a 117 stuff+ mark, compared to a poor 94 stuff + in 2024. He simply isn’t the same guy and wouldn’t be pitching if the Dodgers hadn’t been hit with a myriad of injuries. New York has to take advantage and grab game three.
Walker Buehler Stuff+ (Fangraphs)
2. Yankees need good fundamentals and clutch hitting
In order to win four of the next five games, New York will have to play solid defense, bunt effectively, and avoid “running the bases like drunks” as John Sterling put it. We’ve seen multiple baserunning blunders, by Jazz Chisholm Jr., Gleyber Torres, etc. We’ve also seen a few defensive mistakes this postseason, namely the misplayed ball by Alex Verdugo in left that was erroneously ruled a triple for Freddie in game one. In key situations with runners on, they have to get the job done. Game one was an example of the Yankees failing to do so, leaving 11 runners going and only getting one RISP hit in eight at bats. Game two wasn’t much better, Yanks went 1-6 RISP, making them 2-14 so far in the series (.143). Simply put, the Dodgers likely won’t be held to less than four runs in many games. The Yankees will have to hit to win this series, and they’ll have to do better than the .174 batting average with RISP that they’ve put up so far this postseason. Comparatively, the Dodgers are hitting .294 with runners in scoring position, and a league-leading nine RISP homers in October.
2024 Postseason Team RISP (MLB.com)
3. Aaron Judge needs an MVP level series
Unsurprisingly, plenty of fans and analysts alike have pointed out the lack of production from Aaron Judge in the postseason throughout his career. The narrative has gotten even stronger this season, with Judge striking out 19 times in 40 postseason at bats. He’s the captain and the superstar with the AL home run record, yet he’s hitting .150 in the most meaningful month of 2024. Judge has been one of the worst hitters in the lineup, though he did hit a big homer to tie game three against Cleveland in the ALCS. This is not to say the Yankees don’t need a better performance from Jazz or Verdugo, but the expectations for your captain are and should be higher. As when I mentioned RISP above, the Dodgers have no problem putting up 4+ runs against just about anyone. The Yanks don’t have the bullpen of Cleveland, or the starters of Seattle. Luke Weaver, Clay Holmes, and company are effective, not dominant. Expecting the starters to get 18+ outs each game, or the bullpen to shut down the Dodgers each night is not a realistic expectation. For the Bronx Bombers to make it competitive, they need Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton to keep it going, and Judge needs to overcome his postseason struggles to be the 60 HR MVP that we all know and fear.
*Stats are as of 10/27/2024