2025 Painting Corners Top 25 MLB Free Agents
Juan Soto of the New York Yankees (Getty Images)
25. Alex Verdugo | 28 yo | Royals | 1 year | $13M
Alex is only 28, a Gold Glove finalist, and an above-average career hitter. He’ll hit 10-15 homers a year, and sit at around .260. He has a .781 career OPS vs RHP, and a .651 OPS against lefties that could make a platoon worthwhile. However, the lack of production offensively is balanced a bit by his strong glove. I suspect he might look for a prove-it deal, which is what I would do after a long, brutal season at a well known club. Remember though, Verdugo was an above-average hitter for five consecutive years, and 2024 was his cliff. Hopefully, he can find a way to bounce back. Enter the Royals, who need a veteran to plug in and replace MJ Melendez in left.
24. Tyler O’Neill | 29 yo | Blue Jays | 2 years | $26M
O’Neill is probably good as gone from Boston with Roman Anthony and company on the rise. They might extend him a qualifying offer, but there is a risk that he takes the offer. Tyler will likely look for multiple years in what should be the largest payday of his career, after hitting 31 HR, and being the 3rd best hitter (.313/.430/.750) in the MLB against left-handed pitching. Though he is one dimensional, he can play left field, and he did hit 15 homers against RHP in 2024. It’s really his contact that suffers, as he only hit .209 against righties. Toronto finished 29th in SLG vs lefties, only ahead of the pitiful White Sox. They need a bat like O’Neill who can hit it out on a regular basis.
2024 Team SLG Rankings vs LHP (Fangraphs)
23. Nick Pivetta | 32 yo | Pirates | 2 years | $28M
After struggling in Philadelphia, Pivetta has been a consistent mid-rotation starter for the Red Sox since the 2020 trade. Nick put up 10.2K/9 and a 103 ERA+ over five seasons with Boston. He’s only 32, and looked better in his last two Red Sox years than he ever has. His extremely impressive 133 stuff+ mark last season is buoyed by a 174 mark on his slider. Nick is a five and dive starter– he’s not very good facing the lineup a third time around. He’s a gamer though, and I’d want to have him teaching my younger guys on preparation and energy. The Pirates need exactly that, with a young promising rotation headlined by Paul Skenes and Jared Jones.
Nick Pivetta Stuff + (Fangraphs)
22. Gleyber Torres | 28 yo | Red Sox | 3 years | $45M
Gleyber is younger for a free agent, and he’s a 2X All Star who can play an up-the-middle infield position. That immediately makes him a free agent worth looking at, especially when you consider that the only other regular middle infielders in the market, Adames and Kim, will get big paydays. We probably won’t see another season like 2019 from Torres, when he hit 38 homers, but that’s OK. If he can find a way to hit .270 with 20-25 homers a year and stay at second base, he’ll have a nice back nine in his career. Boston’s second basemen hit .200/.250/.282 with a 45 wRC+, worst in MLB by a mile. They need consistent production there, and Gleyber brings it, even if he’s not the best defender.
21. Jeff Hoffman | 32 yo | Jays | 3 years | $39M
Hoffman was a 1st round pick out of ECU, but he failed as a starter for Colorado before the Reds moved him to the bullpen. Shortly after, he went to Philly and broke out as a reliever. He has a 2.28 ERA over the last two years, as a high-leverage short reliever. He’s a fastball/slider guy, throwing each pitch about 40% of the time, with a splitter and sinker he throws occasionally to keep hitters honest. Hoff doesn’t get a lot of ground balls, but he’s 96th percentile in chase % and whiff % to compensate. The Jays need a guy with swing and miss stuff, a high-leverage reliever they can rely on in the 8th inning in front of Romano.
20. Yusei Kikuchi | 33 yo | Astros | 4 years | $54M
Kikuchi looked the best he’s probably ever looked when the Astros acquired him at the deadline for a few prospects. Wagner and Loperfido were initially considered a huge overpay industry-wide, but Yusei went 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA down the stretch for them. Over the last two seasons, he has a 3.96 with an impressive 10.1K/9. Perhaps even more noteworthy is the 2.4 BB/9, a now mitigated flaw that was a major problem earlier in his MLB career. He can get away with pounding the zone now because his fastball and slider are + pitches, but I’m not sure how he’ll hold up when his fastball drops from 96 down to 93. Evenstill, he was a great addition to the Astros this summer, and I expect they’ll want more of the same.
19. Nathan Eovaldi | 35 yo | Tigers | 2 years | $34M
Nate has lost a few miles an hour on his fastball, but he also knows how to pitch more than he did when he was consistently hitting triple digits. He also demonstrated another gear in the 2023 postseason, when the 2X World Champion went 5-0 with a 2.95 ERA. Over the last four years, he’s averaged a 3.76 ERA over 152 innings per season, which makes him a #2 or #3 rotation arm on a good team. Enter the Tigers, who already have Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson, but not much else. It was obvious this October that Detroit needed a third starter, so who better than Eovaldi to add to this rotation with an eye on another playoff run?
18. Tanner Scott | 30 yo | Rangers | 4 years | $54M
Tanner Scott became one of the hottest names on the trade block last year, when Miami tanked their season and it became obvious Scott would be available. He’s one of the best left-handed relievers in the game, but I do expect his payday will be limited by his control issues. He loses the strike zone sometimes, which is not a trait you generally want from a closer. That said, his fastball/slider combo is devastating for opposing hitters when he’s on. His 151 stuff+ on his four-seamer is among the best in baseball, with opponents hitting .134 against it. The Rangers are a great fit after losing Kirby Yates to free agency, assuming they’re interested in Scott closing. Either way, Texas doesn’t have a high-leverage lefty and needs one badly.
Tanner Scott Pitch Tracker (Baseball Savant)
17. Jurickson Profar | 32 yo | Padres | 2 years | $34M
Jurickson has had good years at the plate in his MLB career, but 2024 was his first great season. A 139 wRC+ is a number that most hitters never get to, and I certainly didn’t expect to see Profar put up that kind of production for the first time on the wrong side of 30. Although he is a former infielder, he is an atrocious left fielder. That’s why he slides down to the #17 spot, coupled with the high probability that we don’t see another 139 wRC+ season from him again. He hit .239/.327/.366 from 2021-2023, and it’s not unreasonable to expect gravity to kick in. I still think some of Profar’s success is sustainable, such as his 11.4% BB rate, and 21.9% chase. His best years have been with the Padres, who he has a career 116 OPS+ with. I like the chances of the Padres retaining him to keep this unit together for a couple more years.
Jurickson Profar Overview (bRef)
16. Nick Martinez | 34 yo | Reds | 3 years | $45M
One of the best traits Martinez has is flexibility, with the ability to start or come out of the bullpen on any given night during the season. If a starter goes out, Nick can help out. This is inevitable these days, with most teams needing eight or nine starters over a full season. With a healthy rotation, Martinez can be plugged back into the pen seamlessly, which is a skill most pitchers don’t possess. Since coming back from Japan three years ago, he’s averaged 51 appearances and 12 starts a season, to the tune of a 3.31 ERA. Martinez is a great fit for the Reds, who often see pitchers only manage 15 outs or less in the #1 homer park in the MLB.
15. Luis Severino | 31 yo | Giants | 4 years | $60M
Sevy has resuscitated his career in a way that most pitchers only dream about, but the same can be said for his talent. Luis had back-to-back Top 10 Cy Young finishes back in 2017 and 2018, before incurring multiple injuries. He was one of the worst pitchers in baseball across town in the Bronx back in 2023, but David Stearns signed him to a 1-year prove it deal. Severino did in fact prove he still has it, and I think the Giants will be a suitor with Blake Snell almost certainly leaving town.
14. Sean Manaea | 33 yo | Mets | 4 years | $64M
Manaea has found success without swing-and-miss stuff similar to his teammate Jose Quintana and several pitchers on this list. Sean is a sinker baller, but doesn’t get many ground balls. He threw the four-seamer 56% of the time in 2023, and dropped it to only 11.3% in 2024. The sinker has become his primary pitch. Despite throwing it 44% of the time, hitters only managed a .201 batting average against Sean’s sinker. He seems to have reinvented himself, almost dropping the four-seamer entirely. The Mets were a part of this change, and that’s why I could definitely see them inking Manaea long-term after seeing his success firsthand.
13. Michael Wacha | 33 yo | Royals | 3 years | $51M
After a few injury-riddled seasons, Wacha has now been very good for three consecutive years. He won’t throw more than 160 innings in a season, and will usually throw less than that. However, similar to Manaea, Wacha has found success by pitching rather than throwing. He finished 92nd in hard contact % and 89th percentile in average exit velocity; he excelled at generating soft contact against the best hitters in the world. Wacha is 38-14 (3%) with a 3.30 ERA over the last three seasons. All three seasons have been with different clubs, so hopefully Wacha has found a home in Kansas City behind Ragans and Lugo in the rotation.
Edit** Wacha just signed for 3 years, $51M - might be my only exact prediction of the year!
12. Christian Walker | 34 yo | Astros | 3 years | $66M
Walker is likely going to win his 3rd consecutive GG tonight– he’s widely considered the best defensive first baseman in the league. As you can see below, Christian has averaged 32 HR and 94 RBI over the last three seasons, hitting a respectable .250 as a right-handed power hitter. Alonso will get more money because of his youth, but I would argue that Walker is a better player right now, when you consider the defensive discrepancies. The Astros obviously regret signing José Abreu after the MVP season…it’s been a historic flop of a contract. Jon Singleton was good enough to fill the gap mid-season, but the Astros need a middle-of-the-order presence to both take over first and potentially replace the Bregman hole as well.
Christian Walker 2022-2024 Standard Batting (bRef)
11. Anthony Santander | Guardians | 30 yo | 4 years | $96M
Santander hit a career-high 44 homers this season, and has come a long way from the Rule 5 draft. He’s a below-average right fielder, but I’d say at least he can play the field. I’d rather a player like Anthony Santander play right field at a mediocre level, than someone like Giancarlo Stanton who can’t play the field at all. Anthony has averaged 35 homers in the past three seasons and has established himself as one of the best switch-hitting power guys in the game. His contact ability is good enough, and the Guardians will be looking more for power on the market after getting out-hit by the Yankees in the ALCS. I think he’ll get $23-$24M AAV based on his youth and power in a relatively weak hitter market.
10. Teoscar Hernández | 32 yo | Dodgers | 3 years | $75M
Teoscar had a terrible year in Seattle, but bet on himself and had a career year in LA. He’ll get a multi-year payday from Andrew Friedman, as deserved. Teo does swing at everything and misses quite often, but he also hits 30 homers a year and carries a respectable .263 career average. His 162 game average from 2020 to 2024 is 26 HR and 84 RBI, with a .274/.328/.493 line. He protects the top of the Dodgers order by lengthening it, and you could really see his value when he smashed the ball over Aaron Judge’s head to bury the Yankees in that disastrous 5th inning of Game 5. While I do expect the Dodgers to pay Teo, I could see a club like the Cardinals or Brewers bringing in the middle-of-the-order bat to add some juice to their lineups.
9. Pete Alonso | 30 yo | Yankees | 4 years | $120M
I’m sure people will think this is too much money for Polar Bear, and many don't think it is close to enough. For me, Alonso is an All Star first baseman whose value relies almost exclusively on his power. Since he is a one-dimensional free agent, that caps his ceiling. I am a bit surprised the Mets weren’t able to come to an agreement with Pete’s camp, but then again it is Scott Boras. Over the last four seasons, Pete has an .835 OPS while averaging 39 homers a year. He’s also a .249 career hitter, and a bad defender, so it’s fair to question how he’ll age. For this reason, I have him moving across town for a 4-year deal, while the Mets go all in on their new superstar.
8. Jack Flaherty | 29 yo | Dodgers | 3 years | $78M
Prior to 2023, Flaherty hadn’t pitched a full season since 2019. In 2023, Jack had a 4.43 ERA for St. Louis in 2023 before being traded to Baltimore at the deadline. The trade backfired for Jack and the O’s– he looked out of sorts and finished with a 6.75 as an Oriole. 2024 was a different story, when Jack signed a 1-year prove it deal with Detroit. Similar to Teoscar, it worked out and he ended up performing in both Detroit and LA. He wasn’t great in the postseason, but he’s now got two back-to-back healthy seasons on his report card as he seeks the bag this winter. There seems to be a mutual fit for the Dodgers, who have constant pitching injuries, and Flaherty, who has been outspoken about his desire to stay with the Dodgers.
7. Blake Snell | 32 yo | Nationals | 5 years | $120M
Scott Boras botched Snell’s free agency which should have been a smashing success for the 2X Cy Young award winner. Of course, the market has accounted for Snell’s high pitch counts and command issues. Still, Snell has demonstrated his dominance and he showed us again in 2024 going 5-0 record with a 1.45 ERA after the AS break. He had an awfully slow start without a proper spring training, the same curse that afflicted Jordan Montgomery. The difference is, Snell recovered, and Monty had a terrible campaign throughout. Blake increased the usage of his curveball this year, which hitters only managed to hit .111 against in 126 at bats. His 96 MPH four-seamer is tough to catch up to with his changeup and his devastating breaking ball in the mix. Snell has shown no signs of slowing down, and some club will pay him this time around after his second half stretch. The Nationals have a solid rotation without a head or ace, a position Snell is perfect for. Washington is about to break out as a young, competitive playoff team, and they can make a run if they add a frontline starter like Blake for 2025 and beyond.
6. Ha-Seong Kim | 29 yo | Braves | 5 years | $125M
Similar to Alonso, some may think $25M AAV is too much for Kim, a guy who hit .233 with 11 HR in an injury plagued season. That doesn’t explain the floor or ceiling of his profile though, as a guy who can play multiple positions at an above-average level. If you want to sign a shortstop in 2026, you can slide Kim to 2B or 3B. From an offensive standpoint, he’s roughly an average hitter, similar to Dansby Swanson when he signed a 7-year/$177M deal with the Cubs two years ago. The Gold Glove SS had a 103 OPS+ over the last three seasons, with a combination of average, some speed, and enough power to get by. He’s elite in respect to chase, whiff, and BB rates, which plays up his talent and gets him into the 4-5 WAR territory when healthy. The Braves clearly need an upgrade after losing Swanson two years ago, and Orlando Arcia has proved he isn’t good enough to hold the job permanently.
2024 Ha-Seong Kim Performance (Baseball Savant)
5. Alex Bregman | 31 yo | Tigers | 4 years | $108M
It’s difficult to imagine Bregman in another MLB club, but that’s exactly what we are attempting to do. I don’t foresee Jim Crane opening the pocket book for both Bregman and Kyle Tucker, and I expect Houston to prioritize Tucker. Bregman is a good, yet not great, player at this stage. Early in his career, he had a few excellent seasons where he was playing at the level of an MVP candidate. That was pre-pandemic Bregman though, and we haven’t seen him since. Over the past four years, he’s averaged .262 BA with 22 HR and 80 RBI with a 3.9 bWAR. He’s a very good defender at third, and is arguably the best position player in the draft after Soto. However, he’s lost bat speed and doesn’t hit the ball as hard as he used to. He’s also now five years removed from being an MVP candidate, so those days are likely behind us. He’s still an All Star Level player though, and the Tigers need those just as much as anybody else. Aside from starting pitching, it was obvious that they needed offense. Breggy can provide that, while fitting in as an above-average glove.
4. Willy Adames | 29 yo | Dodgers | 6 years | $156M
Willy is the only shortstop with legit power and a decent glove. That means we are probably talking about a nine-figure deal, even in a slow market. There was also basically no market for shortstops last season, so we could see more than a few teams ready to go in on a shortstop. Willy is a 3.5 bWAR player over the last three years, with a .236 average and solid 30 HR, 100 RBI numbers on a consistent basis. Defensively, he is grading better in Milwaukee than he did in Tampa despite his lack of range. He’s probably roughly average at short, which is more than acceptable when you consider the offense he brings to the table. He’s really only played short in his MLB career, so it might be a bit more challenging to move him to second or third when the time comes. Evenstill, I love this fit for the Dodgers, who just won the World Series and seem to have endless money. They’ve had a few different guys in there since Trea Turner, including Mookie filling in admirably. It’ll be nice to see Mookie back in right permanently, as the Dodgers look to win back-to-back rings.
3. Max Fried | 31 yo | Boston Red Sox | 6 years | $162M
Max is the best lefty on the market, but I don’t see Atlanta going big to keep him. Max has finished Top 5 in the Cy Young twice, and he’s also won three Gold Gloves. Outside of 2023 and the pandemic season, Fried has started 28+ games going back to 2019. Fried doesn’t have the crazy stuff+ numbers or throw particularly hard, so it’ll be interesting to see how teams evaluate him this winter. Max relies on seven pitches, mixing speeds and locations to keep hitters off balance. The Red Sox haven’t made a big splash since David Price, but they need a starter badly, and a lefty one would be even better. Why not bring in Lucas Giolito’s old highschool teammate so they can pitch together and take Boston into October ball?
2. Corbin Burnes | 30 yo | Chicago Cubs | 7 years| $280M
Corbin is a workhorse, averaging a 2.94 ERA with 194 innings over the last four seasons. There’s no other pitcher who has a combination of performance and durability over the last four seasons, and he might have the best cutter of any starter in the league. He won the Cy Young in 2021, before finishing 7th and 8th over 2022 and 2023. He’ll for sure finish Top 5 again this season in the AL, stepping seamlessly into the Orioles rotation. Corbin’s cutter usage dropped nine points in 2024, while he’s deploying his curveball more. His slider also became his third pitch in 2024, which matches the new trend of throwing your fastball off of your breaking ball. Reducing his fastball usage could help his longevity, but either way he should age well. The Cubs are a great fit for him– both Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele are lefties. Why not add a righty ace?
Corbin Burnes 2021-2024 (bRef)
1. Juan Soto | 26 yo | Mets | 13 years | $598M
Soto is the crown jewel of the offseason, after losing the World Series to the Dodgers. I don’t really see him going to the Dodgers, but it’s certainly possible. Juan is only 26, can still play the field, and he’s a Top 3 player in the American League. He’s not quite as good as Judge, but who is? Soto also still might have another gear, seeing as a lot of all-time players have their best season between 26 and 30. Soto is going to hit 35-40 HR a year, with an OBP over .400. He is definitely worth $500M+ given his age. I think the bidding will get to around $500M and I am not considering deferred money. This is an NPV projection, like Ohtani's $461 NPV on his $700M deal last season. Bryce Harper’s 13-year deal is something I think Soto will want to match, while the $46.1M AAV is Ohtani’s salary that Juan will also want to at least match. The only team I see writing this check this winter is the Mets, and the only owner I can imagine agreeing to this is Steve Cohen. Most teams will balk given he’s already a bad fielder at 26 and he might be a DH by 30. There is one certainty though, Juan Soto is an all-time great hitter.
*Stats are as of 11/3/24