Three Moves the Red Sox have to make

Craig Breslow, Chief Baseball Officer of the Boston Red Sox (Mark J. Rebilas/Imagn Images)

The Red Sox sat at 81-81 this season, despite their main offseason acquisition, Lucas Giolito, needing Tommy John surgery after spring training. As we all know, the Red Sox won four World Series chips over 15 years, which is one of the most dominant stretches in recent MLB memory. Since 2018 however, things have been rough for Red Sox nation. There seems to be a larger concern for staying under the luxury tax, and investing the rest of the Fenway Sports Group portfolio than there is in another World Series. The Red Sox have averaged only 79 wins over the last three seasons, and they’ve finished 5th in the AL East three times in the last five seasons. They scapegoated Chaim Bloom, but who is responsible for yet another mediocre season in 2024 with Bloom gone? Fans are fed up, and with the core of the system finally ready to ascend, it’s put up or shut up time for Fenway Sports Group. 

Boston Red Sox Five Year History (Baseball Reference)

The Red Sox are currently projected a little over $130M in payroll, which leaves them with over $110M of room until they hit the CBT threshold. That should be enough to land one or two premier free agents, with a few more supplementary pieces around it. Having $110M in room also allows for a potential contract-eating situation to get a good player who’s overpaid, such as Carlos Correa. The rise of core organizational talent like Roman Anthony (Baseball America #1), as well as Wilyer Abreu’s surprisingly impressive rookie year, has given fans optimism about 2025 and beyond. It’s also galvanized the fan base to expect a nine-figure signing again, which we haven’t seen from Boston since Trevor Story back in 2022 and JD Martinez in 2018 prior to Story. Let’s break down the priorities for Boston this offseason, and their options for each one.

1. Lefty Ace

The Red Sox don’t currently have a lefty starter on their depth chart, which leaves them exposed to a lefty heavy lineup, especially in a playoff series. The Sox also clearly need an ace to pitch in front of Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello. While Houck had an impressive breakout season, he doesn’t possess the stuff or command to be a true ace. Houck’s pitch usage changed dramatically in 2024; he developed the sweeper and it’s since become his primary pitch. The sweeper is his putaway pitch, but his sinker and splitter are also effective to generate soft contact. His 55.5% GB rate is excellent, but his 4.05 xERA furthers my argument that he’s more of a mid-rotation guy than an ace. With Nick Pivetta and James Paxton leaving, the Sox also just need more innings throughout the 2025 season. 

The options for lefty ace are somewhat limited on the free agent market– it really boils down to either Max Fried or Blake Snell. As I pointed out last week in the PC top 25 list, Fried mixes speeds and uses his command to get outs rather than dominate with his stuff. Snell is the exact opposite; he’s a nasty five and dive guy who uses a dominant fastball/curve combination with a slider and change as support pitches. From the perspective of a full season, I might rather have Max Fried. However, in a short playoff series, I’d probably take arguably the most dominant lefty in the National League right now. Snell has only pitched 130 innings twice in his career, but he’s got a Cy Young award for both of those years. Fried threw 176 innings this year, goes deeper into games, and he’s more durable. He’s also a year younger, but has a 5.10 career playoff ERA. That’s a demeritt on the resume of an ace, who you need to perform in a three game or five game playoff series. 

2024 Blake Snell Metrics (Baseball Savant)

There are a few options beyond Snell and Fried, both laterally via the trade market or by lowering your expectations in the free agent market. Garrett Crochet had a 3.02 ERA in the 1st half before fatigue kicked in after the break, but it was still an impressive inaugural season as a starter. The 25 year old already had success as a reliever, but now that he’s demonstrated he can get 15-18 outs consistently, contending teams will certainly be competing for his services. A deadline deal never materialized last year, partially because he publicly demanded that he get an extension with whichever team acquired him or he wouldn’t pitch in the postseason. Giving your new team an ultimatum doesn’t exactly give you the best reputation around the league. He’ll cost quite a bit in farm talent given his two years of team control, but he’d immediately improve this Boston staff. If Breslow doesn’t want to part with any top 100 prospects, he could look at mid-rotation lefties on the FA market, like Sean Manaea and Yusei Kikuchi. Either guy would be a big drop from a Cy Young level talent like Snell or Fried though.

2. Middle infielder

The Red Sox had a 45 wRC+ at 2B collectively in 2024, worst in the MLB by a mile. Emmanuel Valdez was atrocious as a defender, which was somewhat expected, and unexpectedly poor as a hitter in 2024. The Chris Sale trade looks like a massive loss for Boston, as Sale is likely to win the NL Cy Young and Vaughn Grissom put up a horrible 35 wRC+ in his first year with Boston. David Hamilton and Trevor Story have the ability to play 2B and SS, but Story’s health isn’t something that can be counted on. Since he signed the $140M deal, he’s only played 163 games in three years. Even if he did manage a full season, is Trevor Story still an everyday player or is he washed? Based on the limited samples we have, his bat speed and hard hit rate point to him being washed as a hitter. That said, he’s fully healthy now, so we likely won’t know for sure until we are a few months into 2025. As far as Hamilton, David’s main ability is his speed. He was able to swipe 33 bags in 98 games, but he doesn’t hit the ball hard or have much game power. He’s around average as a defender between second and short, and will be able to play at either position everyday depending on who the Sox add. 

2024 Red Sox 2B Production (Fangraphs)

If they were to plan on platooning Hamilton and Story in short, they could look at former division rival Gleyber Torres or Ha-Seong Kim. Torres is young and has 25 HR power, but he’s not a great defender and makes mental mistakes as a baserunner. Kim doesn’t have a ton of pop, but he can play three infield positions well, and has excellent plate discipline. Kim is also coming off of a shoulder surgery, so he’ll carry some health risk albeit at a more affordable price. For what it’s worth, Alex Bregman has indicated he’d be willing to move to second on his new club, and it's probably doable given his defensive abilities at third. Boston would be adding a solid hitter with above average defense to their lineup, but there would be some risk around Bregman’s range at second base. The top of the market at short would be Willy Adames, while they could also slide Kim to short of course. The free agent market drops off significantly after that, with mostly rebound candidates like Jorge Polanco and Brandon Drury available. Based on Boston’s offensive needs at second, Gleyber makes sense to me, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they bid on a player like Ha-Seong Kim or former KBO teammate Hye-Seong Kim.  

3. Closer

Breslow’s best find in his debut season as POBO in Boston was Justin Slaten, a fastball first guy who mixes his cutter with a dominant four seam fastball. Since Slaten’s curveball isn’t that effective, I see Slaten more as a high leverage 7th/8th inning guy than a closer. If he develops a plus offspeed or breaking ball, he likely has a future closing games. Liam Hendriks will be in contention for high leverage situations this year now that he’s healthy, but expecting him to close is likely not realistic. Both Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin are free agents, which opens up opportunities internally for some of these guys to pitch in high leverage situations. However, even with Jansen and Martin, this bullpen was 24th in baseball with a 4.39 ERA. Boston needs an effective lefty reliever, but the most important need is a closer externally. 

2024 Team Bullpen Rankings (Fangraphs)

The best options include Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, Jeff Hoffman, and more. I’d be surprised to see Boston ink a tier one reliever like Scott or Hoffman, but it’s a possibility. To me, it’s more likely Boston plays in the sandbox that has guys like Carlos Estévez, Clay Holmes, and Ryan Pressly. These are effective relievers with plenty of closing experience, but lack the dominance of the first group. The Red Sox had a top ten starting rotation, as an above average offense. The defense of this club, in conjunction with the bullpen is why this team was ultimately mediocre in a competitive AL East. Though I could see Breslow settling for someone like Holmes or Estevez, I’d rather see them add one of the premium guys and one of the second tier relievers. Inking a dominant fastball slider lefty like Tanner Scott would immediately lift this bullpen, especially if they add a veteran closer as well. Could they convince Kenley to come back?

*Stats are as of 11/10/24