Beyond the Top 25: The Bargain Bin
Photo of Aroldis Chapman (Pittsburgh Gazette)
Earlier this month, Painting Corners put out our 2nd annual Top 25 Free Agent list. Now that we’ve predicted and analyzed stars like Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes, we’ll take a look at players in the bargain bin so to speak. This list includes younger players coming off of injuries, veteran gamers, and more. The criteria here, to me, is a guy that will cost much less of a payday than the premium options in the market, but carry significant potential value to their next Major League club. Take a look and let me know what you think; did I miss anyone?
Hitters
Jorge Polanco | 31 yo | 2B
No one is confusing Jorge Polanco with Roberto Alomar at second base, but he’s probably tolerable enough to play there for another year. Jorge had big years at the plate in both 2019 and 2021, but he only hit .213 in Seattle, and he’s only averaging 15 HR a year since hitting 33 back in 2021. Much of this has been due to injury; he’s averaged only 101 games a year since 2022. The All Star 2B is coming off of knee surgery, and while that may be an explanation for the terrible year, he’s also a likely candidate for a slow start. I still like Polanco as an option for a one-year deal. If a contending team doesn’t want him, one of the bottom feeders could pick him up for a potential deadline in August if he does bounce back.
Jorge Polanco Advanced Fielding Metrics (Fangraphs)
Yoán Moncada | 29 yo | 3B
You may remember Moncada as a top-3 Baseball America prospect in both 2016 and 2017, or you might remember his breakout 2019 season. Either way, he hasn’t been able to follow up either fact as of late, largely due to injuries. Unbelievably, Yoán is still not even 30 years old, and he’s a decent defender at third. Clubs shouldn’t expect the .915 OPS from his career year, but the 99 wRC+ in the five seasons since should be a decent projection of what Moncada’s bat can provide. If he can stay healthy, a 3-4 bWAR season is not out of the question.
Paul Goldschmidt | 37 yo | 1B
The 2021 NL MVP dropped off in a big way last season, hitting only .230/.291/.373 before the break. The good news is America’s first baseman hit .271/.319/.480 after the break. With a potential future Hall of Famer like Goldy, you have to consider that he was playing for a mediocre club with essentially nothing to play for. He’d be more motivated on a contending team, and his bat speed could probably benefit from a few more days off in the field. It was only two years ago that Goldschmidt led the league in OPS as the best player in the National League. For teams lacking middle-of-the-order bats, Paul is a good option without having to commit to multiple years.
Max Kepler | 32 yo | RF
Kepler is probably the best fielder on this list with 48 DRS and a 57 OAA career in right. He’s had some injuries in the last few years, but he carries a 101 OPS+ over the last four seasons. He has 15-20 HR power, average contact, and an above average glove in right field. Max gets overlooked sometimes due to having played in Minnesota for 10 years, as well as storing much of his value in his fielding. He’s similar to Jason Heyward in that respect, another All Star right fielder who had a nice second career in the MLB.
Max Kepler Profile (bRef)
Jacob Stallings | 35 yo | C
Stallings has the Gold Glove, while Kepler doesn’t. However, Stallings is no longer a full-time player at 35, he’s more of a part-time catcher good for 70 games a year or so. Shockingly, Stallings had a career offensive year at Coors Field, putting up an .810 OPS. That probably won’t happen again, but anything near .700 should be considered productive for a backup glove first catcher considering league average OPS for the position is .678. Stallings has gotten positive feedback from his pitching staff throughout his career, and he will get interest from multiple clubs given his numbers in 2024. I’d be one of the execs calling, if I were indeed an MLB executive.
Pen
Aroldis Chapman | 37 yo | LHP
Chapman is a 7X All Star, 2x WS Champ, and Rivera Reliever of the Year. Have we forgotten about him? He struck out over 14 batters per 9 in 2024, an elite rate. The problem is, he was pitching in Pittsburgh. There is no doubt Aroldis walks way too many guys, but he’s still hitting triple digits with regularity. His 134 stuff+ rating is excellent, particularly an elite 237 rating on his slider. A 14.4% BB rate will hurt his chances for a high AAV this winter, but there will be several teams interested in adding the legendary lefty and his 37.1% K rate to their pen.
Aroldis Chapman Stuff + (Fangraphs)
Jakob Junis | 32 yo | RHP
June Bug has a 4.53 career ERA as a starter, and 4.25 as a reliever. He was able to wear both hats again in 2024, with a 1.55 starter ERA over 6 starts. Part of Jakob’s value is his versatility– his ability to fill in is similar to Nick Martinez. He pitched for two NL central teams in the same season, but was a total pro and performed for both clubs. Most of Junis’s pitches are below average, but his slider consistently checks in with a strong stuff + rating. He throws the slider as his primary pitch, in conjunction with a sinker that keeps hitters off balance. Jakob also finished in the 99th percentile with a 3.2% BB rate in 2024, which helped to limit the damage on bad days.
Buck Farmer | 34 yo | RHP
Farmer is less known than Chapman or even Junis, but he managed a 3.68 ERA over three years pitching at Great American. Farmer is a slider/sinker guy similar to June Bug, but he doesn’t get as many ground balls. He does, however, generate soft contact, and he’s reliable. He’s averaged 64 appearances a year over the last three seasons, and he’s become proficient at limiting homers as well. He struggled often in his Detroit stint, but he’s found consistency by increasing the use of his slider. Teams looking to lengthen their pen should give Buck’s agent a call, particularly the ones with hitter friendly parks.
Starters
Wade Miley | 38 yo | LHP
Miley didn’t pitch much in 2024, having to get hybrid elbow surgery in May. At 38 years old coming off elbow surgery, signing Wade involves a certain level of risk. However, Miley had a 3.26 ERA from 2021-2023, though he’s only thrown over 125 innings once in the last five years. The veteran lefty is a crafty groundball pitcher, and he relies on a cutter he throws 87 MPH. He’s not going to blow anyone away, but he could be a great add in an age where teams plan on having eight to nine starters on the staff depth chart. If you are going to expect pitching injuries, why not go for the veteran who has a long track record of getting outs?
Kyle Gibson | 37 yo | RHP
Over the past four years, Gibson has averaged a 4.43 ERA over 178 innings of work. He has elite durability, and can go deep into games when he’s on. The sinkerballer doesn’t have premier stuff by any means, and he can be overlooked in the age of stuff + and sabermetrics. He’s an effective starter who knows how to pitch, and Gibby has always had a positive clubhouse reputation. Having him around the young guys on the pitching staff would be an added bonus for a club looking to add a veteran back-end starter.
Kyle Gibson 2021-2024 Performance (bRef)
Jose Quintana | 36 yo | LHP
Quintana will fit the theme here– he doesn’t have swing and miss stuff. He does have a 3.39 ERA since the start of 2021, with an average of 25 starts per year. He’s a bit of a five and dive guy, Jose won’t go deep in many games. In fact, he has only completed 2 of his 333 career starts. He’s ranked in the 70th percentile and above average in exit velocity, barrel rate, and groundball rate. Teams are starved for reliable innings and outs, so Jose should be able to get a two-year deal once the younger starters are off the board.
*Stats are as of 11/17/24