Grading the Chris Sale & Vaughn Grissom Trade
Chris Sale of the Atlanta Braves (Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)
Only one day after the Red Sox signed Lucas Giolito to their pitching staff for 2 years, $38.5M, Craig Breslow got on the phone with Braves POBO, Alex Anthopoulous and worked out a trade. The Red Sox will send $17M in cash with Chris Sale in exchange for up and coming infielder Vaughn Grissom. This leaves the Braves on the hook for the last $10.5M on Chris Sale’s extension for the 2024 season. Considering Sale’s 7X All Star resume, this is a bargain if Sale can start even 20 games this year. On the flip side, a young Vaughn Grissom gets a change of scenery to Boston, and more importantly, the chance to play everyday. Let’s break down each side of the deal-
Braves: B+
For Atlanta, Vaughn Grissom became expendable with Orlando Arcia firmly taking over the shortstop role in 2023. Grissom was never necessarily a top prospect coming out of the draft, but he did rise through the Braves’ farm system by raking (career .320/.407/.477). Vaughn struggled at shortstop defensively, and has been below average at the keystone as well. However, he has a better chance to be passable at 2B than he is at short. If he hits anywhere close to the way he did in the minors, he’d still be valuable playing in left field anyhow. He’ll be 23 for opening day and clearly needs a chance to prove he can hit enough at the major league level. This likely wasn’t going to be possible in Atlanta after the trade for Jarred Kelenic, one more guy who would take up a roster spot on one of the most stacked clubs in the league. One of the biggest winners in this deal may be Grissom, who gets a chance to play everyday in the show.
2024 Braves Starting Rotation (Roster Resource)
By acquiring Chris Sale, the Braves continue to stockpile high upside arms in their rotation. As you can see above, all five in this rotation are All Stars with a cumulation of 12X All Star Selections. Sale has struggled with elbow inflammation, Tommy John surgery, a rib fracture, a broken finger, and shoulder inflammation since 2018, which creates risk for the Braves if Sale can’t provide durability throughout the season. It’s not really reasonable to expect 30 starts from Chris Sale, but it’s plausible he matches the 20 start output from his 2023 campaign. When looking at the peripherals for Chris Sale on Baseball Savant, there is a lot of red. 92% percentile in chase with a 33.6% rate, while placing 88th percentile in K% and 80th percentile in Hard Hit % demonstrates that Chris Sale can still pitch at an All Star level when healthy. This is a great acquisition for AA largely because it prevents having to engage in the very pricey free agent market, where 5th starters are getting $15M/year, and mid rotation starts are getting $20M. If Chris Sale were a free agent this year, I’d guess he’d net something in the $20M range, so $10M is certainly a bargain. Being able to take a flier on Sale as a rental takes pressure off Atlanta from considering arms like Monty, Snell, or Cease. The last piece about this trade that tilts it to a B+ is the club option for $20M in 2025. As I mentioned, $20M is the price of a mid rotation starter, and the Braves leave the door open to pay Sale at that price point for another year if he can stay healthy. That kind of flexibility sets the Braves up for success, both from a roster structure and payroll standpoint.
Chris Sale, 2023
(Baseball Savant)
Red Sox: A-
New POBO Craig Breslow got a few smaller practice deals when he acquired reliever Isaiah Campbell from the Mariners and then again when he traded for Tyler O’Neill as a one year rental. This trade is bigger both in optics and real consequence, as Chris Sale is a long time Red Sox and got the last outs of the 2018 World Series. Unfortunately, he’s dealt with a cornucopia of injuries since then, which has created a negative narrative around his contract extension in Boston. Boston just got Lucas Giolito, and presumably had that new depth in mind when they moved Sale to the Braves. Atlanta gives Chris a change of scenery, which I’m assuming is why he was willing to waive his no trade clause. Boston fans are thankful for Sale’s contributions, but the injuries really started to pile up, followed by frustration from all parties involved. In this deal, Sale gets a chance to play for a 2nd championship and the Red Sox eat $17M on an expiring deal to get 6 years of team control for a solid young ballplayer, Vaughn Grissom.
2024 Red Sox Projected Lineup (Roster Resource)
Grissom struggles defensively, but is starting to take reps at both 3B and LF, probably in hopes of creating more lanes to success in the show. There’s no doubt Grissom can do that by playing more positions, but it sounds like the Red Sox have Vaughn penciled in as their everyday 2B for now. Vaughn Grissom could be a modern version of Martin Prado or Chris Taylor if he can find the ability to increase his versatility. The most important thing for Boston this year heading into opening day is his bat, and the prospect that he can be passable defensively at second. It’s unlikely Grissom is ever an All Star caliber player, but Boston will win this trade if Grissom is a consistent 2.0 WAR player over their six years of control. Even with questionable defense, that kind of value is not of the question for Grissom, who has hit at every professional level he’s played at. Since I do believe Grissom will be a solid major league ballplayer, I have to give Breslow the win on this trade for now. The Red Sox don’t have the infield depth that Atlanta has, and they likely don’t see themselves as front runners to win the pennant either. This gives Grissom some breathing room for a breakout season. Let’s review again at the end of 2024 to see if Sale stayed healthy!
*Stats are as of 12/30/2023