Is the Window Closing in Milwaukee?
Corbin Burnes of the Milwaukee Brewers (Benny Sieu/USA TODAY Sports)
The 2023 Brewers were NL Central Champions, before dropping their best of three series against Arizona. Milwaukee has three division crowns since 2017, while also finishing 2nd three times. In the last seven years, the Brewers have only finished below 2nd in the NL Central once, and it was in the Covid shortened 2020 season. Ostensibly, a 29-31 start is a slow one, but certainly wouldn’t prohibit the Brewers from eventually finishing with a strong record over a full 162 games. Unfortunately, despite 5 playoff appearances in this seven year window, the Brewers have only won a handful of playoff games and lost the Wild Card Series three times. The Brewers’ best shot was 2018, when they lost the NLCS in a 4-3 series to the Dodgers. Now with Woodruff and Houser departed, the Brewers starting rotation is starting to look more sparse, with the club ace Corbin Burnes also gone after the 2024 season. On the offensive side, the Brewers have lacked firepower for the past few years, and have done little to change that this winter. The Brewers offense also has their own core player nearing free agency in Willy Adames. With both Willy and Corbin set to hit the market in 2024, many fans are left wondering, is the Brewers’ window closing?
Brewers Franchise Page 2017-2023 (bRef)
When the Brewers and POBO (President of Baseball Ops) Matt Arnold traded Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor for a low end prospect coming off Tommy John (Coleman Crow is now ranked #25 in the system), alarms were raised that the Brewers were making a major pivot from contending to make salary dumps. The previous red flag was non tendering Brandon Woodruff, presumably without making a serious attempt to agree to alternative terms with him. Woodruff was projected to make $11M-$12M in 2024, and it wasn’t realistic to expect the Brewers to tender him given his lack of availability until September or so coming off a major shoulder surgery. Despite not having a full rotation, the Brewers flipped back end starter Adrian Houser, who is set for free agency after the 2024 season. This is a move that indicates a lack of competitive direction, given that the replacement for Houser will likely be worse than him unless they sign one of the top starters left on the market. Additionally, trading Tyrone Taylor also saves some money but depletes the Brewers outfield for a prospect who probably won’t be more than a 5th starter if things click for him. Since the Brewers do plan on giving Jackson Chourio the keys to center field in 2024, they had an extra outfielder, so the loss of Houser hurts the club more in the immediate sense.
When examining this team in the context of competing in 2024, there is a path for the Brewers to compete for the NL Central. The bullpen that finished 1st in the NL last year with a 3.40 ERA has low attrition from the 2023 campaign, with guys like Williams, Payamps, Milner, and Megill all returning. Obviously, having Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta as your 1-2 is still a strength despite losing Woodruff and Houser from the staff. Offensively, the Brewers benefited greatly by having rentals Mark Canha and Carlos Santana down the stretch. Milwaukee finished 24th in the league with a 92 wRC+, while also finishing 25th with 165 home runs. Despite overwhelming evidence, the Brewers front office has done nothing to address the lack of power in their lineup. The pitching staff carried the team last season, finishing tied for 1st in the MLB in total ERA (3.73). With less starting pitching depth this year, it’s not hard to imagine the Brewers needing more runs from their offense than they did in 2023.
NL Team Bullpen Ranks 2023 (Fangraphs)
One thing that has benefited the Brewers so far is the lack of impact signings by the Cubs. The Cubs have done close to nothing, while the Cardinals added all star Sonny Gray, in addition to some inning eater types like Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson in the back end of the rotation. The Reds grabbed Jeimer Candelario, and presumably have the surplus of infielders to go out and get pitching via the trade market. Cincinnati did sign Nick Martinez to a two year deal, but likely need another starter. Though Jed Hoyer and the Cubs have done little to nothing at this point, I do expect them to at least sign a starter and get an impact bat either by trade or the free agent market. The Pirates may not look like a frontrunner in the division at this point, but breakout seasons from Oneil Cruz and Ke’Bryan Hayes could result in a surprise performance from Pittsburgh. The NL Central in the last few seasons has been one of the weaker divisions, but that could be set to change in the next few years. The Reds have a ton of young talent, with the Cubs having the 2nd best farm system and the Brewers rank 6th according to Bleacher Report. Furthermore, the Pirates rank 12th, Cardinals rank 13th, and the Reds rank 17th in farm system strength for 2024, indicating much future success within the division.
Top 10 MLB Farm Systems
(Joel Reuter/Bleacher Report)
I’m sure the Brewers have a new window pinned on their calendar, given that they do have a top 10 farm system in the MLB. They can strengthen the system even further by moving Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames. Additionally, star closer Devin Williams is a free agent after the 2025 season and would net a very high trade package for a reliever. Between these three guys, the Brewers could add multiple top 100 prospects and put themselves closer to the top two of three systems in the league. This kind of shift would project a competitive window opening somewhere in the range of 2026-2028, depending on the timelines for their core players. To me, this team is past its window after 2024 either way, with Corbin and Willy almost guaranteed to play for another club by 2025. If you’re losing Burnes and Adames, you may as well trade Devin Williams and get a haul back for him as well. Based on the chess moves so far this winter, it would appear Matt Arnold already has these moves in his playbook, whether it’s this winter or at the trade deadline if the season doesn’t go well.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/brewers-non-tender-brandon-woodruff.html
*Stats are as of 12/28/23