Will Mets Fans Get a Gift From Uncle Steve?
Graphic of Steve Cohen (Pat Light)
The Mets find themselves in a fence sitting position: one year removed from a 75 win season, but only two years removed from a 101 win campaign in 2022. They are also entering their 3rd consecutive season over the luxury tax, with their final 2023 tax bill coming in at a $100.78M figure per Ronald Blum of the AP here. This shatters the previous record from 2015, when the Dodgers had a whopping $43.6M CBT bill. In the last two seasons, the Met’s owner Steve Cohen has paid $131.6M in luxury taxes, despite saving about $8.4M in taxes by dealing older veterans like Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at the 2023 trade deadline. Since Billy Eppler resigned and the Mets hired renowned former Brewers and Astros executive, David Stearns, Steve Cohen has yet to land a top 50 free agent. The Mets have made a few smaller moves, such as netting Joey Wendle and inking Luis Severino to a one year deal as a high upside bounceback candidate. Even still, there is a good chance Severino either struggles on the mound, or struggles to stay on the field due to his durability issues. Severino hasn’t started 20 games in a season since 2018, and he was one of the worst guys in the league last year. When he is right, he flashes ace level production. Signings like Joey Wendle and Michael Tonkin, on the other hand, are unlikely to really move the needle either direction in the success of the 2024 Mets.
Luis Severino Season Stats & 2024 Steamer Projections (Fangraphs)
After losing out on the bidding for Japanese star Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the Dodgers, the Mets have to make a decision about whether or not they are looking to keep their competitive window open for 2024 and 2025. Many industry experts expect the markets to pick up significantly after Christmas, now that both Ohtani and Yamamoto are off the board. Starters like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery become more appealing, and teams that lost out on Yamamoto (e.g. Yankees, Mets, Red Sox) presumably will be locked on guys like Monty and Snell. The Mets did make a nice trade with Milwaukee this week to get a 5th starter in Adrian Houser (FA 2025), and Tyrone Taylor as a glove first, fourth outfielder who has three years of team control left. Similar to the free agent signings they’ve made though, this trade doesn’t indicate that Cohen and Stearns are committed to seriously competing in 2024 or 2025. In a very competitive NL East, the Mets are either the 3rd or 4th best roster right now, with quite a distance between them and their rivals, the Phillies and Braves. If the Mets do manage to bring in a premium starter via free agency or trade, and manage to acquire an impact bat as well, they will likely project ahead of the Marlins. Regardless, can they compete with the Braves and the Phillies in a tight NL east?
2024 ZIPS Mets Projections (Fangraphs)
With the Mets already projected for a $283M payroll, there is a little they can do to avoid heavy taxes again in 2024. For context, they are still above the Dodgers projected CBT, despite the Dodgers netting Ohtani, Yamamoto, and Tyler Glasnow this season. One source of this is the dead money they’re taking on from the Scherzer and Verlander deals, a combined $41.62M. Since the Mets are entering the 3rd consecutive year over the threshold, they’re paying the 50% tax, in addition to the marginal tax rate. If they do get over the $297M number, they will pay 110% tax on any dollar above that figure. Even with Uncle Steve demonstrating willingness to open his pocketbook to make things interesting, it’s not hard to imagine $297M as a soft cap given to David Stearns by Cohen. Since that would leave $14M in space, the Mets would likely have to use prospects to acquire major league talent via trade. The Mets also have a few difficult time sensitive personnel decisions, the most critical being Pete Alonso. If they can’t meet Alonso’s demands for an extension (Pete just hired infamous agent Scott Boras a few months ago), they need to consider moving Alonso for assets that can help the Mets organization beyond 2024. If not, Alonso could walk after 2024 with the Mets getting little more than draft compensation from the inevitable qualifying offer. Additionally, Stearns will have to think about which assets to sell if Cohen does want the CBT reset. Unless they’re going all in for 2024 and 2025, trading Pete and getting under the CBT threshold can create opportunities for a competitive window a few years further in the future.
2024 Projected CBT Payroll (Spotrac)
If the Mets do plan on going all in for 2024 and 2025, they’re several pieces away with a current rotation headed by Kodai Senga, who is coming off a terrific rookie season, finishing 7th in the NL Cy Young and 2nd in the Rookie of the Year voting behind Corbin Carroll. Still, Senga overperformed his peripherals by almost any measurement. For 2024, Steamer projects Senga for a 3.76 ERA, which is more reflective of a 2nd or 3rd starter than it is an ace. The MLB marketplace also saw Senga as a mid rotation starter last winter, which is why the Mets got him for 5/$75M (Senga will likely exercise his player opt out after 2025). After Senga, there’s a dropoff to veteran Jose Quintana, and then arguably an even greater drop to guys like Severino and Magill. The bullpen will benefit from Edwin Diaz’s return, but it’s not enough to project the Mets bullpen as a plus unit per Dan Szymborski’s ZIPS article from November. On the offensive side, Ronny Mauricio tearing his ACL is certainly tough news for the Mets, as they already needed at least one or two bats to be added purely from a depth perspective. Adding Tyrone Taylor likely means they won’t add an impact bat in the outfield, but we can’t rule it out. If I had to guess, I would imagine David Stearns makes a few minor additions to the major league roster without making any major financial commitments.
Given where the Mets are from a payroll and organizational standpoint, I’d be surprised if the Mets signed a premier free agent (think Cody Bellinger or Monty) at this point. Acquiring a rental like Shane Bieber through trade is possible, but I don’t think Shane Bieber or Corbin Burnes puts this team within striking distance of franchises like the Dodgers and Braves. To that end, it makes more sense to me if David Stearns starts moving chess pieces toward the CBT reset, which he appears to be already doing. This puts both Cohen in a better financial position long term to make the necessary moves and write the checks to go “all in” when the timing fits more with the roster’s upside and capabilities.
https://apnews.com/article/mlb-luxury-tax-mets-padres-yankees-4e4762f2f15198f275dcad58801e9f00
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-new-york-mets/
*Stats are as of 12/23/2023