Is Tatis Jr. Still a Superstar?
Fernando Tatis Jr. of the San Diego Padres (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
Fernando Tatis Jr. immediately caught everyone’s attention and vaulted into the top tier of baseball at only 20 years old when he hit .319 and put up a 151 wRC+ in 2019. In the shortened 2020 COVID season, he put up a 151 wRC+ and finished 4th in MVP voting before signing a historic 14 year, $340M extension with AJ Preller and the San Diego Padres. In 2021, while in his first full season, Tatis hit .282 with 42 HR and stole 25 bases. He also played shortstop at an above average level and his 7.3 WAR gave him a strong argument for MVP.
Everything changed for Fernando in 2022. First, he suffered a broken wrist from a motorcycle accident that sidelined him until August. Then, he served an 80 game suspension for performance enhancing drugs, wiping out the entire 2022 season from his historic career start. The year offset him back in his career accomplishments and cumulative numbers that could matter down the line, but I want to evaluate something even more imminent: Did the setbacks change the potential of Tatis? Is he still a superstar or just one of several very good players in the National League now?
Folks can criticize Tatis Jr. for his decisions or character flaws, but they certainly cannot question his athleticism or natural talent. Tatis moved to right field after playing shortstop his whole life and he’s already one of the best in the business. His 14.5 UZR/150 is 2nd among outfielders in the National League only to Brenton Doyle. His 24 DRS mark is #1 among NL outfielders by far and his 10 OAA is second only to Doyle’s 14. Full stop, Tatis Jr. is an elite outfielder. From 2019-2021, Tatis hit .293/.369/.596 with a 160 wRC+. To put it a different way, this was his average line per 162 games: .293 BA, 48 HR, 116 RBI, 31 SB. Historically, there are very few players with better numbers than his this year from ages 20 to 22— Tatis even had Mickey Mantle beaten by a small margin (.303/.400/.518, 156 wRC+).
Fast forward to 2023, and Tatis Jr. is finishing a season in which his team has a 84-68 pythagorean record, but a 74-78 record in reality. Essentially, they should be good but they’re not. Tatis should be a top 5 hitter in the league, but he hasn’t been. He’s hitting .262/.327/.465 with a 118 wRC+, which is a far cry from the absurd 160 wRC+ number he had put up in a three year span. 160 is Stan Musial territory, 118 is Carlos Beltran. It’s fair to say this is a significant difference. His average exit velocity is down a few ticks to 92 MPH, while his max is also down from 116.6 to 113.4. Fernando’s barrel rate is under 12% for the first time and his hard hit rate is way down as well (49.9% from 55.6% in 2021). Simply put, Tatis Jr. is not hitting the ball nearly as hard and may never revert to that level of dominance again. While he may not put up a 160 wRC+ or compare to Stan or Mickey when it’s all said and done, what he has been this year is still solid. He’s an elite right fielder, with power and speed. Nevertheless, if you’re evaluating him based on his contract or to all time greats, 2023 is not going to cut it and neither is a 118 wRC+. Right now, Tatis Jr. looks like an All Star, but I am still optimistic he has a chance to return to superstar status and win a few MVP awards.
*Stats are as of 9/20/2023