Watchlist: 3 Rookie Arms to Track
Grayson Rodriguez of the Baltimore Orioles (Getty Images)
3) Cole Ragans, 25 yo | KC Royals
The Royals hit the lottery on the Aroldis Chapman trade when they acquired Ragans and his wipeout changeup. Ragans has a 2.28 ERA in 10 starts, putting him in 1st in the American League since the All Star Break. He’s only 25, which means he has room to grow, and sports an encouraging 32.5% K rate and 3.6% barrel rate. Prior to the trade, the Rangers were utilizing Cole as a reliever and he wasn’t producing (5.92 ERA in 17 appearances). Texas simply had too much depth in the rotation, but the Royals don’t have that problem. They threw Ragans on the staff right away and he’s pitching like a front line lefty starter. This is a huge addition to a rotation that ranks 27th in the MLB this season with a 5.21 ERA. Aroldis Chapman has been solid for the Rangers, but as a rental reliever, this could end up as one of the most lopsided trades of the decade.
2) Tanner Bibee, 24 yo | Cleveland Guardians
Bibee is only 24 and has a 55 fastball and 60 grade slider. Fangraphs writer Eric Logenhagen projected Bibee at #5 in Cleveland’s system before the season, giving him the future value of a mid rotation starter. Bibee looks to have already exceeded that projection, with a 2.98 ERA, which leads qualified AL rookies. His xERA is higher (3.70), but his K-BB is at 16.4% and his 6.1% barrel rate against is also strong. His combination of stuff and command keeps the WHIP down and ducks off the pond. Tanner currently sports a 1.18 WHIP, which is really solid for a rookie. I do think the 8% HR/FB will probably regress to the average, but that would still place Bibee with an estimated ERA in the mid 3’s, which is typical of a solid #2 starter.
1) Grayson Rodriguez, 23 yo | Baltimore Orioles
Grayson is not yet 24 and seems to have figured out major league hitters. He was atrocious in his first MLB stint (7.35 ERA), but has found success in his 2nd (2.59). Grayson’s stuff was so good, he had success in the minor leagues without much command in the zone. With increased command, his 70 grade change, 60 grade fastball, and 55 grade slider look dominant. His .261 wOBA in the 2nd Half indicates this success is real and I wouldn’t be surprised if Grayson won the Cy Young in 2024 or 2025. Now, Baltimore needs to get a lefty like Jordan Montgomery or Eduardo Rodriguez and the rotation will be able to back up a dynamic Orioles offense in 2024.
*Stats are as of 9/17/23