Juan Soto Free Agency-Look Ahead
Juan Soto of the New York Yankees (ESPN)
Where could the MVP favorite land this winter? Well, we know Scott Boras’s clients signing extensions in their walk year is essentially unheard of, and Juan Soto is likely going to be no different. When you’re breaking down quotes from star players, clubs, and free agents, you’re analyzing the content that these parties want as the public-facing narrative. It’s not uncommon for a star player to say he’s open to an extension, even if he’s not, and the same goes for the Major League organization. Front offices speak in lawyer, because most of them are in fact lawyers, or at least have a background in law and business contracts. The reason I say this, is despite Soto’s quote about considering an extension, he’s almost a sure bet to test free agency and glean every max offer he can from the big market clubs. So we look to address three questions today: 1) where could he go? 2) for how long, and 3) how much?
We’ll reverse engineer this, because it makes more sense to qualify teams out from a financial standpoint. First, consider that Soto is the current favorite for AL MVP, generally listed somewhere in the +270 range in front of his teammate, Aaron Judge. From 2022-2024, he is 7th in wRC+ in all of Major League Baseball, behind only a handful of superstars like Judge, Yordan, and Ohtani. If you filter to the last two seasons 2023-2024, he’s 4th in the MLB behind Ohtani, Judge, and Betts, in that order. He’s also 2nd in the MLB in RBI over that timeframe, behind only Matt Olson in a stacked Atlanta lineup.
2023-2024 MLB RBI Leaders (Fangraphs)
Soto is only 25 years old, but he’s a Batting Title Champion, World Series Champion, and 4X Silver Slugger. He’s not a great outfielder — or even average — but he’s at least not a liability. He’s on the fast track to the Hall of Fame already, and he’s going to be an all-time great barring major injury. When you consider his youth, he’s clearly in line for a historically-long deal if he wants it. For example, Harper got a record, 13 year contract back in the 2019 offseason. I’m thinking Soto will look for a similar, 13 year deal, somewhere in the range of Ohtani’s NPV (Net Present Value). I’m not going to play the game of deferred cash projection, so we’ll stick with NPV, which is what the MLB attributes to the CBT threshold. MLB has a $46M NPV number for Ohtani, and I think Soto will get a similar figure when you weigh his youth with the fact he doesn’t pitch on balance. Obviously this is a rough estimate, but 13 years, $598M is my projection at this point (Harper’s 13 years times Ohtani’s $46M).
Juan Soto Summary (Baseball Reference)
Now which teams can legitimately play in this territory with this level of financial commitment? Furthermore, how many teams actually need a superstar corner outfielder who will likely move to DH halfway through the deal? The CBT in 2025 is $241M and the Dodgers already have $235M committed (via Spotrac) without even considering raises for arbitration-eligible players. The Phillies have almost the exact same number committed, and both teams are likely to fly over the luxury tax just by arbitration and adding one or two supplemental pieces this winter. It’s hard to imagine even the Dodgers being willing to pay the top 110% tax on too many dollars, and the $297M figure was essentially a soft cap for these big market teams in 2023. The Mets, Dodgers, and Yankees were the three teams that exceeded the $297m figure in 2023, and all three are strong candidates to go over it again in 2024.
CBT Threshold Multi-Year (Spotrac)
New York Yankees
I don’t foresee the Dodgers or Phillies being in on Soto for the reasons listed above. The Yankees, in my opinion, are still the heavy favorite to sign Soto this winter. He’ll use multiple teams as leverage the way Shohei and Yamamoto did last offseason, but ultimately, he probably has a sense of where he wants to be. The Yankees also know they can’t be outbid this year; the fans won’t have it after they lost out on Yamamoto. Soto is also already in New York, so he knows if he likes the city or not, as well as his level of interest in being a part of the franchise itself. The Astros will have Alex Bregman hit the market this year with Kyle Tucker in line to follow after 2025. Houston lost out on multiple draft picks as a consequence of the sign-stealing scandal, and they’ve traded most of their prospects for immediate help at the MLB level in recent years. The Astros largest FA contract ever is Carlos Lee’s $100M deal from 2007, and I don’t anticipate them being in negotiations for a $600M player.
2025 Payroll Commitment: $202.41M
San Francisco Giants
I’m looking at the teams with devoted fan bases looking for their next star, in conjunction with clubs who have lost out on the big names of late. The Giants lost out on Judge, Rodon, and Carlos Correa — though they did manage to net Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler and Blake Snell this past offseason. Chapman is a sturdy, everyday player, but not really a star at this point in his career. Snell is on a one year deal, and Lee just underwent shoulder surgery. The Giants need a big-time bat, and the fans want a superstar. This is Farhan’s chance to right the ship after failing to bring in Aaron Judge. Michael Conforto is a free agent after the season, so left field should be up for grabs in SF.
2025 Payroll Commitment: $165M
2025 Payroll Commitments (Spotrac)
Chicago Cubs
Jed Hoyer and the Cubs lost out on Ohtani, but they were able to bring Bellinger back on a short term deal. The Cubs have shown a capacity for big-time stars in the past, but they also already have three outfielders in Happ, Suzuki, and Belly (assuming he doesn’t opt out). The Cubs are hitting .225 this year, and rank 17th in the MLB in runs. If they’re serious about this competitive window, they need a blue chip, middle-of-the-order bat like Soto.
2025 Payroll Commitment: $164.25M
Toronto Blue Jays
Obviously, Toronto has not seen the start they were looking for in 2024, but they do have some competitive window left lest they move Vlad Jr. or Bo at the deadline. Those two will eat quite a bit of whatever budget Jays ownership has in mind for the next several years if they do choose to extend both players. Despite their name brand core, the Jays rank 27th in runs scored this season and really have no shot at the AL East with that kind of offensive production. Soto is a possible target, but Adkins and the front office likely believe, as I do, that they’re more than one player away.
2025 Payroll Commitment: $130.07M
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners are an obvious potential fit in the sense that they have perhaps the best starting rotation in the MLB right now, yet they lack an offensive punch. Assuming Julio finds form again, the Mariners are the favorite in AL West by my predictions for 2024, even without Juan Soto. I expect the Rangers to continue to add to their roster, and who knows what Jim Crane will choose to do with multiple pieces of their core hitting the market. If the Mariners were to add a top 5 hitter in the MLB, they’d have the opportunity to dominate the AL West over the next 4-5 years. This, of course, would require John Stanton to spend money, but dreaming is nothing new for Mariners fans.
2025 Payroll Commitment: $103.41M
Further notes: Red Sox haven’t really done anything major in the FA market since signing David Price in 2016, and I have little reason to expect differently this offseason. The Padres’ Peter Seidler passed away in November last year, and I just don’t think this club has the same urgency with him gone. I’m not expecting them to bid on the star they traded away, and I doubt Soto would go back anyway. The Mets are several pieces away, and I don’t anticipate a corner outfielder being their top priority for 2025. Alas, you can’t rule anything out for the wealthiest owner in the MLB. Lastly, the Braves biggest signing in recent memory is current DH Marcell Ozuna’s four year/$65M deal signed back in 2021. The Braves have a loaded offense, and I expect their main focus to be on retaining Max Fried.
*Stats are as of 5/24/2024