Paul Skenes Dominates At Wrigley Field
Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB.com)
The much hyped rookie (and yes Olivia Dunne’s BF) Paul Skenes has already made history, striking out the first seven batters he faced at Wrigley Field, which is the longest streak in franchise history per Elias Sports Bureau. Skenes now has 18 K’s in 10 Major League innings, after racking up 11 in six no hit innings on Friday afternoon. While the sample is small, it’s obvious that Skenes will have no problem hitting a K rate north of 30%, while his opponent batting average so far is .171. With fellow Bucs rookie Jared Jones making his debut first, there was some speculation that Jones may be better than Skenes. The jury is still out of course, but Paul seems to have fought off those narratives effectively so far.
His start yesterday produced an impressive swing and miss tally of 22. As you can see below, he also threw 12 pitches over 100 MPH, and was the only pitcher in the game to hit triple digits. You can see the results listed to the left of his four seam fastballs. Spoiler, they’re all called strikes, swinging strikes, or foul balls. Not one of these 12 four seamers were put in play– he dominated the Cubs lineup. When you look at this kind of velocity, you might think of reliever risk, right?
Paul Skenes Velocity on his May 17th Start (Savant)
Now we point to the graphic below, showing pitch type, whiffs, spin, etc. There are a few things worth highlighting here, including the previously mentioned 12 whiffs Skenes got from his four seam. He only threw 15 sliders, but generated four whiffs on eight swings, while his splitter generated five whiffs on 13 swings. He threw seven curveballs and four changeups, but 89% of his pitches were either four seam, splitter, or slider. For Skenes to really dominate at the MLB level, he’ll likely need that slider to consistently generate swing and miss. Spencer Strider has gotten away with being essentially a fastball/ slider starter, but he’s a unicorn and testament to the fact that some things can’t really be emulated. Paul’s repertoire is led by his ++ fastball, but also includes the infamous sprinkler (split sinker), while he’s also demonstrated above average command, particularly given he’s only 21 years old.
Paul Skenes Pitch Breakdown on his May 17th Start (Savant)
The reader may have noticed the exit velocity on the right, 97.3 MPH, is very high for average velocity. 95 MPH+ is considered hard hit, and his opponents have a 60% hard hit, 20% barrel rate in Skenes’ first two starts. Since he does average over 99 MPH on his four seam, he’s susceptible to hard contact and potentially homers. There is some reliever risk in the sense that he’s still developing a third and fourth pitch. It’s also possible that he has significant elbow issues given how hard he throws (many have pointed out the similarities with Strasburg’s delivery and velocity). Coincidentally, he also probably has the most hype of any rookie starting pitcher since Stephen Strasburg, so there are multiple parallels here. To me, if he stays healthy, he’s an All Star multiple times over as either a starter or a closer. I do think he’ll need that slider to play up to be an ace, and a fourth reliable pitch would make him borderline unbeatable. I’m just rooting against a reality where Jared Jones and Paul get traded in their arbitration years, while the Pirates never leave their basement and continue to drown in mediocrity. Let’s see one or two division crowns for Bucco Nation, or dare I say, a World Series?
*Stats are as of 5/17/24