It’s Time to Eliminate the Angels

Perry Minasian, GM of the Los Angeles Angels *(MLB.com)*

The Angels sit at 15-25 entering Sunday, and face a 6.5 game deficit to the AL West leading Seattle Mariners. Fangraphs gives the Angels a 2.2% chance of making the playoffs this season, including a 1.3% chance of winning their division. To make matters worse, Anthony Rendon was moved to the 60 day IL with his hamstring strain, and Mike Trout just underwent surgery on May 3rd for the torn meniscus in his left knee. Projections can vary on recovery after a meniscus surgery, but somewhere in the range of 6-12 weeks would be typical. That of course means the Angels won’t have Trout for at least a month and a half, and they could be 10 or 15 games out at that point if they continue to slide.

The starting rotation is 10-21 as a unit, with a 4.59 ERA. That ERA is good for 25th in the MLB, so they’re firmly entrenched as a bottom third starting rotation right now. Reid Detmers has some encouraging peripherals, such as a 30.2% whiff rate and .224 xBA. He does have a 4.96 ERA however, and has yet to enjoy the fruits of encouraging advanced metrics. On the flipside is Major League veteran Tyler Anderson, who has a 2.92 ERA contrasted to his 4.96 xERA. Anderson has had his moments, but I see him more as a #4 starter than a #2 or #3, which is reflected in the 3 year/$39M deal he earned in free agency.

In the bullpen, both Adam Cimber and Hunter Strickland have sub 3.00 ERA’s, and have taken on unexpectedly important roles in the Angels’ pen. Closer Carlos Estévez has felt his struggles from the 2nd half of 2023 (6.59 ERA) pour over into 2024, with a 6.17 ERA and 3 HR allowed in only 11.2 innings of work. This bullpen is 2nd worst in all of the MLB only to the Toronto Blue Jays, who have a porous 5.09 ERA to the Angels’ 4.97 mark. Ostensibly, the Angels don’t have enough quality pitching to go .500 without the lineup balancing things out, so they must be scoring runs, right?

2024 Angels Top Relievers (Baseball Reference)

The short answer to, “Can the Angels score runs?” is that they’re average to a bit below average. They're 9th in the American League in runs, and they rank 9th in the AL in wOBA. They’re 7th in the junior circuit with 42 HR in 40 games, but they’re a bit dependent on the long ball. Also keep in mind that these numbers include Trout’s torrid start to the year. They’re losing a 40 HR hitter for the next 6-12 weeks. As you can see below, Jo Adell is the other big performer this season. Adell has been largely underwhelming in his MLB experience after being ranked as the #2 prospect in the MLB in back to back years in 2019 and 2020 by Baseball Prospectus. Not seen here, Luis Rengifo has also been very good, but several regulars have struggled this season. There simply isn’t enough run production to offset the mediocre pitching the Angels will rely on throughout the rest of the season. These different elements in conjunction with their tight competition for a Wild Card are enough for me to eliminate the Angels from contention.