Luis Arráez Trade Grades
Luis Arráez of the San Diego Padres (Associated Press)
The Marlins’ season went south quickly, with Peter Bendix essentially claiming his team as “dead” in the first week of May. He said it by trading Luis Arráez and then he literally said "We are unlikely to make the playoffs this year.” We actually did a mock trade article for Luis Arráez that was one of our most popular, and one deal we proposed was Arráez to the Jays for Alejandro Kirk, Spencer Horwitz, and Addison Berger. In that case, the Jays would have got the left handed premium leadoff hitter they’ve reportedly been searching for and the Marlins would get an All Star catcher, as well as two prospects who have a shot to play everyday in the big leagues if everything clicks. In the actual trade with the Padres, the Marlins aren’t getting an established major league player.
Now, perhaps that’s the goal considering how bad the Marlins are this season. They’ve had a myriad of pitching injuries– who knows where they would be if their rotation hadn’t been decimated. Their rotation depth was so strong at one point that when Kim Ng traded Pablo Lopez for Luis Arráez, I lauded it as a great deal largely due to the starting pitching depth the Marlins carried. Their ability to get a batting champion at the top of the lineup gave the lineup both legitimacy and a ton of hits. After surpisingly making the playoffs, things went south in Miami quickly. Kim Ng left, and the Marlins “won'' their arbitration dispute with Luis Arráez by paying him $10.6M this season rather than the $12M he asked for. This is an uncomfortable process for everyone obviously, and it can really impair the relationship between the front office and the player in some circumstances. After saving $1.4M for the 2024 season in the arb process, the Marlins traded their All Star with a .325 career average (easily the highest in MLB) a month later. He was told less than 15 minutes before first pitch while he was in the dugout.
05/04
Miami Marlins traded 2B Luis Arráez to San Diego Padres for OF Dillon Head, OF Jakob Marsee, RHP Woo-Suk Go and 1B Nathan Martorella.
Was it worth it? Peter Bendix thinks so. For a bit less than two years of Luis Arráez, AJ Preller and the Padres are providing three prospects, in addition to former KBO closer Woo Suk Go. Woo Suk Go is currently in AA and will pitch in AAA Jacksonville on his way to the Marlins roster. Go could be a productive reliever, but he’s not proven at the MLB level and doesn’t move the needle much when you consider the trade value of relievers and the $4.5M guaranteed to him through 2025. Dillon Head is the headliner in this deal, becoming the #5 prospect in the Marlins system while Marsee and Martorella become #10 and #11 respectively. Dillon was a 1st round draft pick in 2023, and 80 grade speed that should allow him to stay in center field. He’s only 19 and he’s playing A ball, so it’s early to speculate on whether the contact tool will translate in the upper minors. If he can hit .250 and he develops consistent over the wall power, he’ll be an everyday center fielder in the big leagues.
Marsee has had a strong walk to strikeout ratio throughout his professional career, and he stole 41 bags last year in High A ball. He may not have enough power to play everyday, but he should be a productive role player based on his baserunning and on base ability. Finally, Nathan Martorella looks to be projected as a fill in MLB due to his lack of defensive versatility and his lack of power that’s generally required for first base. It’s quite possible that Marsee or Martorella exceed expectations, but both look like to be role players or fill-ins rather than core guys you build your org around. I get Arráez is a bad defender, but you’re giving up a 2X batting champion that’s under team control for two years and you’re paying the 2024 salary down to the MLB minimum. This return feels a bit light to me when you add the financial context.
Marlins Grade: C+
On the Padres side, this is another buy side deal for AJ Preller and his front office. They seem to never run out of prospects, despite trading for multiple star players, such as Juan Soto, Dylan Cease, and now Luis Arráez. They gave up the aforementioned package, but they didn’t give up any of the four top 100 prospects in their system (Salas, Snelling, Lesko, De Vries). To me, that makes this deal a win for the Padres when you consider they’re acquiring a .325 hitter that puts Tatis Jr. and co. in more at bats with runners on. Not only are they adding Arráez, but they get Arráez for two seasons, which gives them two postseason runs and a realistic opportunity of extending him. When you acquire a player with less than a year until free agency, the chances of extending them are slim to none. If they manage to extend Luis, this grade will get a boost, but I love the idea of Arráez hitting in front of Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado. As far as where he’ll play, having several talented infielders is a good problem to have. Given that Luis is the worst defender, it’s probably not a stretch to imagine him DH’ing, which is what Fangraphs is projecting. You could move Bogey back to short, and rotate Kim around the infield, or you could try to trade Cronenworth. Perhaps you could even move him to LF, but Jurickson Profar is raking right now. Who knows, perhaps Arráez focusing on hitting instead of struggling at the keystone results in him getting another batting title. Similar to the Marlins grade, when you consider the financial context, it changes the analysis of this trade fundamentally. The Marlins are paying $7.9M of the remainder of the 2024 salary, while the Padres will pay $740,000.
Padres Grade: A
https://www.mlb.com/news/luis-arraez-wins-arbitration-case-with-marlins
*Stats are as of 5/5/24