Let’s Give Klentak His Flowers for the Zack Wheeler Signing
Center right: Zack Wheeler of the Philadelphia Phillies (CBS)
When the Phillies signed Zack Wheeler in December 2019, he had never made a Postseason start, pitched 200 innings in a season, or made an All Star team. He had also been set back by injuries, similar to other Mets starters like Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard. GM Matt Klentak stepped down from the Phillies front office less than a year after the Wheeler signing, with the current front office now benefitting from the 5-year, $118M deal. Klentak was able to ink Wheeler for less than half of what Stephen Strasburg signed for (7 years, $245M), while also getting great value when compared to Gerrit Cole at 9 years/ $324M (though Cole has been very good and will win the elusive Cy Young award this year). Here is what Wheeler’s major league career looked like at the time of the signing. Yes, Wheeler was coming off a few solid seasons, averaging 30 starts a year in 2018-2019, entering his age 30 season. However, he was projected by pretty much everybody to be more like a two or three starter, not an ace.
(Baseball Reference)
Fast forward to 2023, and Zack Wheeler has a 2.63 over 9 career Postseason starts from 2022-2023. Does that sound like an ace or a two starter? It’s also worth noting that he averages about six innings per postseason start, indiciating he’s been able to give the Phillies outs and relieve their bullpen from the pressure of getting 15+ outs in a game. Wheeler the ace has been born in the city of brotherly love, just take a look at his splits from the Mets to the Phillies.
(Baseball Reference)
When you look at signing a free agent starter, with a career 3.77 ERA, you can’t expect him to be your ace and make it to the World Series in back to back seasons. However, as the Phillies are currently at -410 to win the series against the DBacks, it is looking increasingly likely that Wheeler is the ace of a Phillies team that has gone to the Fall Classic in back to back seasons. He’s started over 100 games for Philly, so it’s a substantial sample size yet also a substantially different level of performance from his days in New York. While the regular season stats are great, folks have to appreciate what Wheeler has done in the playoffs against teams like the Braves, Padres, and Astros. In the 2022 NLCS, Wheeler threw 13 innings against a stacked Padres lineup and gave up only two runs, propelling the Phillies to the World Series. In the Wild Card game, he threw 6 ⅔ against the Cards and gave up only two hits and no runs. This season, Wheeler has turned it on again, dominating the Marlins, going 6 ⅔ against Atlanta in the NLDS, before winning Game 1 of the NLCS against Arizona yesterday. Wheeler has proved that he shows up in the Postseason and it can be tough to apply this weight to a contract evaluation.
Even when you only consider the regular season, this Phillies contract has been one of the best free agent contracts we’ve seen this decade. According to Fangraphs, Wheeler has been worth $154.1M over the life of this five year deal, including $138.6M over the last three seasons alone. Wheeler signed for 5/$118M and he is on pace to produce about $192.6M over the five year deal if he continues producing in 2024. That would be 163.22% of the contract signed, which is an enormous return in a market where many executives infamously regret their decision making and which stars they hitch their wagon to. The other 5-year deal signed by a starter was Madison Bumgarner for 5/$85M and he was released by Arizona back in April of 2023. Now, I am not looking to take away from other acquisitions that have been made by the current Phillies front office, Nick Castellanos anyone? I do, however, want to give Klentak credit for Wheeler as an awesome free agent signing, since many of his other decisions didn’t work out and he wasn’t able to enjoy the return from the Wheeler signing. Sam Fuld and Dave Dombrowski have a good thing going in Philly and I love how the Middleton family invests in their club. Even so, let’s give thanks where thanks are due. I don’t think that they would be here without the Wheeler signing back in December of 2019 by a GM that was dismissed a mere 10 months later.
*Stats are as of 10/17/2023