Why the Phillies are the Team to Beat
Zack Wheeler of the Philadelphia Phillies (CBS)
The Phillies led the 2022 Postseason bracket in isolated power, mostly due to their home run hitting ability. Their power allowed them to get all the way to the World Series despite hitting only .211 throughout October 2022. The starting pitching was solid, a 3.76 ERA over 17 starts, while the bullpen was great (2.62 ERA). The Houston Astros became the eventual champions largely due to the bullpen advantage, their pen put up a gravity defying 0.83 ERA in 54 ⅓ innings of work. If Houston had a lead last Postseason by the 5th inning, they won that game. Specifically, they got 31.2 innings of work from their top three guys, while Montero gave up two runs and Pressly and Abreau gave up none. This collectively works out to a 0.58 ERA, which is an almost impossible pace to repeat. The bullpen had a strand rate of 99%, an opponent BA of .125, and a .173 average on balls in play. For context, the major league average on balls in play is typically around .300. Houston’s starting rotation was good, but not historically great last postseason (3.39 ERA). Their stand rate was a more realistic 74.9%, and their BABIP was .271. Even more notably, the Astros hit .233/.302/.389 with a .304 wOBA, similar to Philly’s .299 wOBA.
2022 Postseason Hitting Ranks (Fangraphs)
Texas and Arizona didn’t make the playoffs last season, so they don’t have statistics for us to examine, but we can evaluate a decent sample from this Postseason since both were Wild Card seeds. The top four offenses this Postseason are the four teams remaining, which is not particularly surprising. What is surprising is the DBacks posting production in the 130-140 wRC+ territory. They are a young offense that struggled to put up league average numbers in the last three months of the season (90 wRC+ since AS break). The DBacks also don’t have much rotation depth behind Gallen and Kelly. They projected fine enough in a five game series, but it’s difficult to see how their bullpen will hold up against this Philly offense over a seven game series. Relying on Ryne Nelson and Brandon Pfaadt in key games leaves them exposed against a Philly team that has Ranger Suarez as a 3rd starter and keeps Michael Lorenzen available for starting pitching depth as well. The DBacks pen has a 1.77 ERA so far in October, but unfortunately an 85% strand rate is unlikely to stick and they could run into some late runs against a home run hitting team like the Phillies.
2023 Postseason Hitting Ranks (Fangraphs)
On the American League side, Houston has the historic success of reaching seven consecutive championship series. The Houston bullpen hasn’t had the same dominance as last season, while the Texas bullpen has performed well despite being the worst bullpen in an entire playoff bracket entering October. Nate Eovaldi has been huge for Texas, going 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA in his two starts this Postseason. On the other side, Javier and Verlander were dominant in their division series starts despite showing signs of struggle this season. There are several overperforming pitchers in this series so I expect fireworks in the championship series. Houston and Texas both have strong offenses, though Houston’s production is concentrated in a few guys (Yordan and Jose Abreu). If Texas can stymie these two sluggers, Houston will have a hard time extending this series. Conversely, rookies Evan Carter and Josh Jung have shown up in several key moments for Texas, trailing right behind superstar Corey Seager in production these last few weeks. Seager, Carter, and Jung are all hitting over .400 this Postseason. Houston will need starters like Framber and Verlander to be efficient to avoid their bullpen getting terrorized by the Texas bullpen. Since I project this to be a tough series for both teams, I think the winner of the series will be at a disadvantage from a workload perspective in the World Series, particularly from a bullpen standpoint. I project Philly to beat Arizona in five or six as opposed to a six or seven games series from Texas and Houston.
The Houston/Texas series is close to a coin toss, which should be advantageous for Philly facing the Cinderella Diamondbacks in the NLCS. I think this is the end of the road for Arizona, as the power and starting pitching of Philly (Wheeler, Nola, and Suarez) is too much of an advantage to overcome. That said, Nola and Suarez have had inconsistencies this season. If they aren’t great and Arizona maintains their offensive production, it could become a competitive series. Even still, these three starters are the strongest of the four teams remaining. Eovaldi and Montgomery have been solid for Texas, but this Houston offense will be the toughest they’ve faced. Framber and Javier have struggled in the last few months of the season, while Verlander is older and has shown signs of hard contact since the trade to Houston at the deadline. Wheeler is a still a true ace and Aaron Nola is a #2 starter when he’s in form. If this Texas Houston series does get to six or seven games, Philadelphia is the team to beat, and a team that increasingly feels like one of destiny.
*Stats are as of 10/15/23