Orioles Knocked Out by the Power Rangers
Dean Kremer of the Baltimore Orioles (Richard Rodriguez / Getty Images)
The Orioles have been swept a week after the Texas Rangers swept their fellow AL East team, the Tampa Bay Rays. In three games, the O’s starting pitching had a 14.63 ERA and we anticipated them struggling to match the pitching ability of other playoff teams. Guys like MLB sophomore Bradish and rookie Grayson Rodriguez have upside potential, but neither has pitched in the playoffs and it showed. Finally, Dean Kremer was tagged in Game 3 and we all knew the series was over once Adolis Garcia hit a 3 run HR to make it 6-0 in the 2nd inning. The O’s bullpen (4.00 ERA) and lineup (94 wRC+) weren’t good in this series, but the starting pitching is why this team got swept, no question.
2023 Postseason Starting Rotation Rankings (Fangraphs)
Mike Elias will have to address the starting rotation in the offseason since the Orioles’ core took a huge step forward this year and looks like a formidable offense. They still need a few arms to complement their young hitters and to protect them from blowouts in the playoffs. Dean Kremer is not a 3rd starter, but the Orioles had imagined deadline acquisition, Jack Flaherty, to be viable for the playoffs. Flaherty’s track record for the O’s played him out of a postseason start (6.75 ERA) and you could argue Bradish had no business starting Game 1 either. Bradish had a 2.83 ERA this season, but his xERA was 3.82 and scouts see him a 45+ FV pitcher, at best a mid rotation starter. This is not to say someone can’t overachieve, but it is likely that the sub 3.00 ERA is a realistic long term number for Bradish. He’s probably gonna be somewhere in the 4.00 ERA range, which is fine for a #3 or #4 starter. Grayson, on the other hand, made huge strides in the 2nd half of the season from where he was at the beginning of the year. He learned how to pitch on command this season, as opposed to just throwing and dominating through the minors with his 98 MPH fastball and 70 grade changeup. That said, he still has a way to go to be a legit ace in the show and it showed when the best offense in the American League tagged for 5 runs before Grayson was pulled in the 2nd inning in Game 2.
Here is the projected 2024 Rotation for Baltimore:
Grayson Rodriguez, RHP
Kyle Bradish, RHP
Tyler Wells, RHP
Dean Kremer, RHP
John Means / Cole Irvin, Both LHP
3 potential add-ons to the O’s rotation this offseason:
Jordan Montgomery | 31 y.o. | LHP
Montgomery shoved in his 1st postseason start against Tampa, while struggling against Baltimore. He owns a 2.55 career postseason ERA in four games, while producing ERA’s of 3.83, 3.48, and 3.20 over 2021, 2022, and 2023 regular seasons, respectively. It’s worth noting his durability, as he’s started at least 30 games in each of the last three seasons. Here are Jordan’s numbers from 2021 to 2023:
(Baseball Reference)
2. Eduardo Rodriguez | 31 y.o. | LHP
Eduardo will be opting out of his 3 year/$49M player option with Detroit, which is not surprising. 2023 has arguably been a career year for E-Rod, who historically has pitched like a #3 starter for most of his career. He’s not as good as Montgomery, but he’ll be much cheaper, partially due to ability and partially due to lack of reliability. Rodriguez has been durable these last few years, but took significant personal time off last season and had a heart issue in 2020 as well. He had a 3.30 ERA over 26 starts this season, which checks in at a 134 ERA+, a career best. Back in 2019, Eduardo put up a 128 ERA+ for the Red Sox over 34 starts. He has shown to be capable of pitching like a frontline starter, but checks in as a playoff viable #3 starter over a long term outlook. Over the last three seasons, since he missed all of 2020, he’s put up a 4.04 ERA, which is about 9% above average over about 25 starts a year.
(Baseball Reference)
3. Wade Miley | 37 y.o. | LHP
You got me– all three suggestions are left handed. The O’s have to get a playoff viable lefty and we know Cole Irvin doesn’t cut it. Baltimore doesn’t know what they have with John Means at this point, as he’s only started six games since 2021 and has elbow soreness again. Bottom line, a soft tossing yet reliable veteran like Wade Miley would be a huge add for a team that doesn’t really have a lefty to pencil in at this point. Wade was awful for the O’s in his first go around 2016-2017, but he’s become a different pitcher these last few years than he was six or seven years ago. Wade Miley has essentially overperformed advanced metrics every season by relying on his defense, which is a fine fit for a solid Baltimore defense. I expect an infield of Gunnar, Mateo, Westbug, etc to be competent in backing Miley up.
Miley doesn’t have the upside potential or durability of the first two guys here, but the bids will be less years and less money than Montgomery and E-Rod. I see Miley as a low cost bargain deal for 20 solid starts a year. He has a 3.26 ERA over the last three years, which translates to 138 ERA+ (best of the three recommended arms). You can expect some regression, but Miley should continue to age well since he relies more on pitching ability than velocity. Like Rodriguez, Miley has experience in the AL East and would have a chance to redeem himself from his terrible performance (5.75 ERA in 43 starts) for the O’s years ago.
(Baseball Reference)