Mets Eat $90 Million at the Deadline
Justin Verlander, now of the Houston Astros (Mary Altaffer / Associated Press)
How did the Mets do at the deadline?
Here are the Mets top 10 prospects now:
Kevin Parada- C- 1st round 2022
Luisangel Acuna- SS- Acquired from Scherzer trade
Ronny Mauricio- UTL- 2017 INTL Signing
Drew Gilbert- OF- Acquired from Verlander trade
Jett Williams- SS- 1st round 2022
Ryan Clifford- OF- Acquired from Verlander trade
Alex Ramirez- OF- 2019 INTL Signing
Blade Tidwell- RHP- 2nd round 2022
Marco Vargas- INF- Acquired from David Robertson Trade
Dominic Hamel- RHP- 3rd round 2021
Four of their top ten prospects (three of the top six) were acquired in the last couple of days. This is a huge win for the Mets organization. It was a culmination of a seller’s market, older veterans with high salaries, and Steve Cohen’s willingness to eat salary in exchange for prospects. Their farm system is probably twice as good as it was last week, thanks to Billy Eppler and Steve Cohen.
The Mets were 50-55 with a -10 run differential at the deadline. They made the right call to cut bait. They started the year with a $350M payroll, won 101 games last year, and reached the deadline as one of the most disappointing teams in history. If you remember back in 2014, the Padres made a big splash for guys like Matt Kemp and Justin Upton. It didn’t work out and they cut bait on that roster, which put them in position for the present Padres, who have a +65 run differential (albeit not a great record). The Padres traded prospects like Trea Turner and Max Fried to make that big offseason happen, but they still knew that the foundation wasn’t there for a championship team.
I’m sure Billy and Steve have the same thing in mind. They’re pivoting away from 2023/2024 and shifting the window to 2025-2027. The Mets are eating about $88M, ($35.5M on Scherzer, $52.5M on Verlander), but eating that money allows Billy Eppler to get major prospects back and dramatically improve the farm system in ways no other team has been able to. Their biggest rival are the White Sox, who did get a top 50 prospect (Edgar Quero) in the Giolito deal. The Mets acquired two top 100 prospects, possibly even a third depending on which evaluator you ask (some think Clifford is better than Drew Gilbert). Eppler had the massive advantage of being able to soak up salaries, but I like these returns overall. I do think people are overrating Acuna a bit and I think they didn’t get enough for Tommy Pham. Jeremy Rodriguez isn’t even a top 30 prospect in the Mets system and he’s only 17. That said, netting 2-3 top 100 prospects is exactly the outcome the Mets needed.
Their next big decision is whether or not they pay Pete Alonso, as he is a free agent in 2025. Pete is a rookie of the year, a 3 time All-star, and the heart of the New York Mets. He’s having a down year (.220/.315/.512), but I think this is similar to the Red Sox situation with Devers and Mookie Betts. The Red Sox paid Devers in the nick of time, right before his last season. Obviously, they failed in retaining Betts, eventually trading him to the Dodgers despite Mookie being the best Red Sox outfielder since Carl Yastrzemski over fifty years ago. The Yankees also missed that window with Judge and almost lost him entirely to the Giants. They ended up paying a premium on the open market to keep him. It would be ideal if the Mets don’t get to that point with Pete. You could imagine it would be in the territory of the Matt Olson extension (8 years, $168M).
The Mets have a few decisions to make regarding whether or not to stay under the 2024 $237M CBT (tax threshold), as well as whether or not they want to deal with the prospect inventory to put together a roster that could compete with Atlanta in the NL East. According to Billy Eppler, the Mets are already looking to 2025/2026 (I wouldn’t count on them being involved in the winter Ohtani bidding). Will Pete and Lindor still be in a Mets uniform by the time the Mets reopen their championship window? Time will tell.
Steve Cohen found out you can’t buy a title and I like his strategy to re-tool and pivot. I also respect the guts to pull a 180 and eat salary at the deadline- it had to be done. Running an MLB organization is not the same as franchise mode on MLB the Show. This deadline was step one toward building a serious contender in Queens.
Trade Deadline Grade - B+ (Main headliners- Acuna, Gilbert, and Clifford for Scherzer, Verlander)
https://theathletic.com/4737999/2023/08/02/mlb-trade-deadline-grade-2023/
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/new-york-mets/payroll/?ref=trending-pages
*Stats as of 8/2/23