Belle of the Ball, Texas Rangers
Max Scherzer, now of the Texas Rangers. (Getty Images).
The Texas Rangers have captured everyone’s attention after a few notable acquisitions only days away from the deadline. We all know their offense is leading the American League by wRC+ at 120, but there were some holes on the pitching side prior to the deadline. The starting rotation ranks 6th in the MLB this year with a 3.88 ERA, but the number is a bit misleading. Fresh off signing a 5-year $185M deal, their ace, Jacob DeGrom, succumbed to Tommy John surgery after just six starts. On Sunday, their second best starter, Eovaldi, was placed on the IL with a right forearm strain. Right now, that would leave Texas with Gray, Heaney, Dunning, and Perez if not for recent acquisitions. Acquiring Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery gives them a top 5 rotation in baseball down the stretch heading into October.
The biggest weakness of the Texas Rangers, however, is the bullpen. This could be problematic in October when runs are at a premium. Texas has a bullpen checking in 26th overall with an ERA of 4.80. The addition of Aroldis Chapman has certainly helped, as they really needed a power lefty that wasn’t their closer (Will Smith). Brock Burke is a good lefty, but he pitches to contact more than someone like Chapman. While acquiring Montgomery, Texas was able to add a righty reliever, Chris Stratton, to the pen as well. These two additions make the bullpen much deeper and will allow Texas to alleviate some pressure off their starters in October. What we’ll do here for today is grade these recent acquisitions for Texas and look at the assets sent in reciprocity.
07/30/23
New York Mets traded RHP Max Scherzer and $35.5M to Texas Rangers for SS Luisangel Acuña.
This trade presents some risk for both sides. Texas gets a playoff caliber starter on a reasonable AAV (something in the range of $6M this year and $16.5M next year). This is cheap purely from a financial/cash flow perspective, but the caveat is giving up a 55 future value middle infielder, Luisangel Acuna. Acuna doesn’t have the upside of an MVP like his brother, but has multiple above average scouting grades. Some scouts don’t think he’ll stick at shortstop, but he should be fine in either 2nd or center. He’s only 21 years old, hitting .315 in AA and seems very likely to land at a premium defensive position (ETA 2025). These different factors culminate in Acuna immediately becoming the Mets’ #2 prospect and could potentially be an ugly trade for Texas in hindsight. The other risk here for Texas is Max’s ballooning HR rate (1.92) and barrel rate (10%). It’s fair to ask about the velocity of regression here, as it’s clear Scherzer isn’t missing as many bats and guys are hitting him way harder.
Texas Rangers - A
Scherzer - A+ (saves $3M in income taxes by getting traded to Texas)
The Mets clear some money off the books and land a premium prospect to bolster their weak farm system. Obviously, this is not a great moment for the Mets front office, as they easily had the highest payroll in baseball and are selling at the deadline. They are getting Acuna, but are eating a lot of money to do it.
N.Y. Mets - B+
07/30/23
St. Louis Cardinals traded LHP Jordan Montgomery and RHP Chris Stratton to Texas Rangers for LHP John King, RHP Tekoah Roby and SS Thomas Saggese.
Texas gets Jordan Montgomery (4.28 xERA), a lefty who is a notch or two above Andrew Heaney (4.78 xERA). Both Montgomery and Stratton are 2023 free agents so this move is purely for this stretch and postseason run. Chris Stratton is a solid right hander for the bullpen, with a 3.89 expected ERA this year. He’s not elite, but he’s reliable and can contribute to a playoff bullpen.
Chris Young put together major signings like DeGrom, Seager, and Semien. Now he doubles down and makes some much needed moves for October.
Texas Rangers - A
John King will be able to contribute for St. Louis in the major league bullpen right away, but is more of a front end guy than back end (4.27 ERA in 80 MLB appearances). Tekoah Roby, slotting in at #4 prospect for STL, is a solid four pitch prospect without any elite pitch that sets him apart. He is the sum of the part kind of pitcher and still has time to improve his command at age 21. He currently projects as a mid to back rotation starter, depending on the evaluator (ETA 2024). Thomas Saggese has been red hot in AA recently and has played all four infield positions in his pro career. He’s hitting .313/.379/.512 in AA already at 21, but doesn’t have any one tool that stands out. He has a possible career as a role player and won a character award in the Texas Ranger organization (ETA 2024).
STL Cardinals - B
One thing I have to give credit to Texas GM Chris Young for is understanding the rhythm and timing of a competitive window. No franchise will ever be in or out of contention forever, and so by definition, these are windows of contention and rebuilding. The Texas Rangers have the number one run differential in the American League (+145) and find themselves in a close race with Houston for the AL West. They are one game ahead, but Houston is now healthy and has momentum. I love these moves for Texas to potentially change the narrative and take some of that momentum back from the Astros.
*Stats are as of July 30