White Sox Trade Deadline Grades and Ideas
Lucas Giolito, now of the Los Angeles Angels. (Giolito, Fox Sports).
The Chicago White Sox are in full-sell mode here toward the end of July with a 42-63 record and a full twelve games back in the AL Central. The Sox have already offloaded a few veteran salaries during deadline week and their tax payroll is now down to about $162M (Spotrac hasn’t moved Graveman to Houston yet). So far they’ve netted their new #2, #4, #6, and #26 prospects in the last three days. We are going to break down each trade and then discuss a few other possible moves for GM Rick Hahn to make this weekend as the deadline approaches.
07/26/23
Chicago White Sox traded RHP Lucas Giolito and RHP Reynaldo López to Los Angeles Angels for C Edgar Quero and LHP Ky Bush.
This is the largest return so far in any trade this week as we approach the weekend. The White Sox moved Giolito, a playoff capable starter, as well as Reynaldo Lopez, a playoff quality reliever. Giolito had a 3 year run from 2019 to 2021, but in the last two years he looks more like an average starter than an ace. His 2023 expected ERA is 4.44, similar to his 2022 mark of 4.23. That said he can eat innings and fits solidly as a number three starter in the playoffs behind Shohei and Reid Detmers. Reynaldo (3.98 xERA) should immediately be penciled in as a late inning, high leverage reliever for the Angels. He is a huge add to the bullpen and this trade instantly makes the Angels a more serious team. They may have overpaid in a vacuum, but I understand why they did it. It helps the Angels’ case that the headliner in the trade (Edgar Quero) was blocked by Logan O’Hoppe in Los Angeles. Who knows? Maybe they make the playoffs and Moreno signs Ohtani to a 12 year deal. Imagine that marketing money.
Angels - B+
Who doesn’t love a switch hitting catcher? Edgar Quero is only 20 years old and he’s already in AA. He’s holding his own at the plate, with a .718 OPS. Behind the dish, scouts expect him to be roughly average defensively, but there’s a decent amount of variance given his age. Quero has great discipline and projects to have a 55 grade hit tool– rather uncommon for a catcher. I’m sure the White Sox see him as their catcher of the future and part of their new young core led by Quero and Montgomery. The pitcher in this deal, Ky Bush, was a lefty drafted in the 2nd round in 2021. He is also already in AA with a 60 grade slider. His command will have to be there in the strike zone, or he could be susceptible to a lot of hard contact. His velocity sits 92-93, he throws strikes, and he should do fine in the back end of a rotation soon enough.
White Sox - A
07/28/23
Chicago White Sox traded RHP Lance Lynn and RHP Joe Kelly to Los Angeles Dodgers for RF Trayce Thompson, RHP Nick Nastrini and RHP Jordan Leasure.
The White Sox moved both Lance Lynn (4.02 xFIP, 6.47 ERA) and veteran reliever Joe Kelly. Yes, you read that right. Although statisticians and scouts like Lance Lynn, real life results have not been kind. In fact, his 6.47 ERA is the worst in the MLB among qualified starters. Why in the world did one of the best-run baseball organizations in the league trade for this guy? In short, bad luck and more bad luck. The White Sox have a bad defense and Lance Lynn’s HR/FB ratio is insane (20.6%). The Dodgers expect the guy with a 3.71 career ERA and hopefully some positive regression. Joe Kelly is also due for positive regression, one of Andrew Friedman’s favorite things to trade on. He has a 4.97 ERA, but a 3.08 xFIP- which is a general stat to show roughly where results should be, but it’s not an exact measurement. xFIP does its job here with Lance and Joe because they’re both good pitchers with a ton of bad luck this year.The crazy thing is, Kelly had a similar bout of bad luck last year as well. Trading on positive regression is great theoretically, but will the math come to fruition in two months? If so, Lynn eats innings, and Joe Kelly makes a struggling Dodgers bullpen better and deeper for the playoff run, while the assets Chicago acquired are substantial due to the terrible surface results from these guys. I don’t believe Lance Lynn makes the cut for their playoff rotation, which docks his short term rental value for me. Kelly will be useful in the playoffs, but I’m not sure Lynn will be.
Dodgers - B
On the White Sox return, Trayce Thompson seems unlikely to contribute this year, getting moved to the 60 day IL for a persistent oblique injury. Trayce is a 32 year old power hitter with a big strikeout problem (31.7% career), but has had a 142 wRC+ in 80 MLB games as recently as 2022. Nick Nastrini, a 4th round pick from UCLA, was included in this package and already settles in as his new club’s #4 prospect. His velocity is up since college, now sitting at 94-96, and he can throw a nasty slider for a strike. Scouts think he has the upside of a front line starter and is the headliner as the return for Lynn and Kelly (MLB ETA 2024). Jordan Leasure comes in at #26 overall for his new club’s farm system, throwing 97-98 with an 80 grade fastball and slider combo. If he can improve his control and command, he could be a bullpen fixture for the Sox by 2025. Overall, they got a prospect that fits in their top 5, gave up a reliever on an expiring contract, and passed off a starter who has the worst ERA in baseball.
White Sox - B+
07-28-23
Chicago White Sox traded RHP Kendall Graveman to Houston Astros for C Korey Lee
Trading Graveman was interesting for two reasons. First, the White Sox signed him to a three year deal two years ago, so the Astros get him for next year as well. Second, Graveman has been a solid late inning guy, with a 3.30 ERA over 110 games from his first game in Chicago back in early 2022. His 4.32 xERA this year indicates some good fortune, but he’s overperformed his peripherals in three consecutive years. A proven late inning reliever goes to Houston as a mid-year acquisition for the second time. (He was traded to Houston around this time in 2021.)
Houston - B
Relievers don’t get you much in the market, or at least not anymore. As Michael Lewis broke down in Moneyball, Billy Beane was fleecing teams by dealing high end relievers (e.g. trading Billy Taylor for Jason Isringhausen) for some of the club’s best prospects. The market has adjusted for these inefficiencies, and now GM’s generally aren’t willing to give up much for most relievers. Houston agreed to send Korey Lee, a former 1st round pick now 25 year old catcher in AAA. Lee is considered an average defensive catcher, despite having a great arm. However, Lee has also hit .255/.313/.446 in 180 games in AAA. This kind of production for a catcher is a plus. If he can be an average defensive catcher, he has the floor of a backup MLB catcher, with the upside of an offensive minded regular with 15-20 HR power. He strikes out a lot, and some scouts are concerned about his receiving, but his power and arm should be enough to contribute at the MLB level.
White Sox - A-
Now that we’ve given the White Sox grades for their three trades, we can figure out their grade point average so far. Rick Hahn has done well with a bad situation, as White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf is getting older and wants championships to add to his legacy. He may have to wait until 2024, but none of these moves really disqualify the White Sox from competing next year and they have plenty of room to move under the luxury tax threshold to add some more talent later this offseason.
Hahn will trade Aaron Bummer, another White Sox pitcher due for positive regression. Bummer has a 6.69 ERA, but his xERA is 2.90, suggesting an absurd amount of unfortunate outcomes for him this year. Someone will trade on that and the White Sox should be able to add some depth to their farm system. Keynan Middleton (4.23 xERA) is a similar rental piece, except that he’s a righty reliever and Bummer’s a lefty. Lastly, the White Sox have Tim Anderson ($14M club option) and catcher Yasmani Grandal as free agents. Yasmani won’t get much back, but you may as well move him because he’s gone anyway at the end of the year. I fully expect the White Sox to decline a $14M option for Anderson, a 30 year old shortstop with a negative fWAR, zero power, and off the field issues.That said, he is hitting .347 in the second half and seems to have found a hitting stroke again. Someone needing help on the left side of the infield will get him and multiple teams will be calling. What about the San Francisco Giants?
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*Stats are as of 07/28/23