Three Teams that Need Pitching
Carlos Osorio of the Detroit Tigers (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)(Carlos Osorio,©2022 The Associated Press.All rights reserved.)
The baseball world just finished watching Jack Flaherty’s last Cardinals start ahead of the August 1st trade deadline (6 ET). While thinking about the market this week, I noticed how concentrated the starting pitching inventory is. This is partly due to the fact that teams like the Angels and Mariners have not lost enough to go full sale. Heck, look at how the NL Wild Card race is within a half game amongst five different contenders (Diamondbacks, Giants, Reds, Marlins, Phillies). We know that only three of the five will make the cut, but all have a good enough chance not to sell. Even the Padres (6.5 GB) have announced they are not moving Blake Snell or Josh Hader.
Since so many teams are “in”, not enough teams are “out” to balance the scales in the trade market. There is a proverbial thumb on the scale in favor of the sellers. Teams like the Cardinals and White Sox could substantially improve their farm systems, contingent on how much they are willing to move. We know that rentals like Flaherty will get moved, but what about the guys controlled beyond this year (e.g. Dylan Cease, Drew Smyly)? Let’s break down the buy side of the starting pitching market. I think a majority of contenders will possibly add an additional arm or two. Even a team with a good 1-2-3 like Tampa Bay needs guys to eat innings in the 4 and 5 slots to save the bullpen guys as much as possible.
That said, I want to look at three teams that must add starting pitching for a playoff run. The Orioles starting rotation has actually been roughly average (16th with a 4.49), however most of their guys are already at or have passed their career high workload. You have the added concern that their rotation does not have an ace with Wells only having a 3.94 xERA, so you have a large hole for an organization looking to establish themselves in October. Given their top starters are right handed, they could look at a lefty like Eduardo Rodriguez (3.42 xERA) or Jordan Montgomery (4.11 xERA). In fact, I would recommend they even add an additional guy just to eat innings and not necessarily pitch in the playoffs (e.g. Lance Lynn). This would give the Orioles Wells (1), Montgomery/ Rodriguez (2), and Bradish (3) in addition to John Means doing bullpen sessions in his Tommy John rehab.
Similar to the O’s, the Reds are mainly relying on young guys and it hasn’t gone super well (28th in the MLB with a 5.34 rotation ERA). Nick Lodolo was good last year (3.97 xERA in 2022), but has been hurt most of this year and hasn’t pitched well when healthy. Andrew Abbott was great in 10 MLB starts this year (1.90 ERA), but has overperformed and could hit a wall. Finally, you have Hunter Greene who was good when healthy, but he’s just coming back from a hip injury (3.67 xERA). Those three guys are not going to be enough in October for 1-2-3, mainly because of the inexperience and injuries. The Reds need a veteran who can immediately start game 1 and give their club the confidence to win. Like the Orioles, they have position players to move. There aren’t enough spots for all of the talented guys in their system. If you move someone like Jonathan India, you have to get similar years of team control back (2027 FA). I see someone like Dylan Cease as a hand-to-glove trade move for a package including Jonathan India. Cease is controlled through 2025, and a legit #2 starter. This would give the Reds Greene (1), Cease (2), Abbot (3), Lodolo (4)- sounds better right?
Finally, our third team that has to add starting pitching is the Diamondbacks. The difference here is the Dbacks have a legitimate ace. Gallen finished 5th in the NL Cy Young last year and has a 3.18 ERA this year (3.67 expected). They also just got Merrill Kelly back. Kelly was good last year and has been decent when healthy this year too (3.12 ERA in 2023). The issue is the dropoff after them (Arizona is 24th in the MLB with a 4.73). It doesn’t take long before you get to guys like Zach Davies (5.14 xERA) and Ryne Nelson (5.00 xERA). I have a recommendation similar to Baltimore’s (both Gallen and Kelly are right handed). Someone like E-Rod would work, but so would someone like Marcus Stroman of the Cubs. A lefty would make sense, but acquiring any playoff quality starter will be good business for Arizona.
This is a transformative time in baseball with rule changes and power ranking shifts. Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Arizona have three of the best young cores in baseball. However, they have too many dudes in the system and not enough spots on the field. All three teams need to cash some of their assets in to put the young guys in a position to succeed where they can play everyday in a new franchise. These teams need to be precise on their market moves, as none of the three are large market franchises. The margin of error is smaller and the window of contention is probably the 4-5 years when the majority of the core is still controllable. Once you start paying your stars multiple times over, that window can close quickly. It is an exciting time in baseball to see these teams competing. Now, their front offices need to do the right thing and give their fans a legit starting rotation to balance the teams’ hot lineups.