Losing, A Cardinal Sin
Paul Goldschmidt of the St. Louis Cardinals (Paul Goldschmidt, MLBPA)
At present, the St. Louis Cardinals payroll sits at $183M, five million below the MLB average. Fangraphs projects their playoff chances at slightly over 5% a week before the deadline, which is low enough for Cards brass to acknowledge plans to move some of their better players. In the last two seasons, the Card’s farm system has slowly gone from the lower third (21st-22nd in mid 2021) to the top third (9th this past March according to MLB.com). However, Jordan Walker is considered graduated so they have some work to do to stay in the top 10.
It goes without saying they will move the rentals (e.g. Flaherty, Montgomery.and DeJung) assuming the $12.5M club option isn’t exercised, but I also think it’s more than likely they will move pieces set to walk in 2025 as well. This would include the 2022 NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt and possibly a few others. Someone like Tyler O’Neil (229/.308/.333 in 2023) makes more sense to hold onto for another year to get his stock price up. I would also include someone like Tommy Edman (5.7 fWAR in 2022) as a trade candidate. Frankly, he’s someone they should trade given he can play everything but 1B and catcher (and it’s a seller’s market). Tommy Edman plays premium defensive positions well and has a career 101 wRC+ (.265/.319/.408 career). He’s a FA in 2026 and would net a sizable return, as would Goldy.
The Cardinals simply do not have the starting pitching to compete in 2024 or 2025. They have Mikolas (4.94 xERA in 2023) and Matz (4.23 xERA in 2023) both through 2025, and then there is a huge drop off. They are mid to back rotation guys, and in the playoffs that won’t fly- take a team like Philly for example (Wheeler, Nola, Suarez), or the Braves (Strider, Fried, Morton, Elder). The Cardinals 4.76 rotation ERA ranks 24th this year and it’s not great company below them (Pirates, Red Sox, Royals in that order).To make matters worse, St. Louis has a bullpen in the bottom third as well (4.40 ERA ranks 23rd this year).
The offense is 6th best by wRC+ this year at 110 (.257/.332/.429), but it is not enough to correct for the lack of pitching. They are red hot in July, posting .283/.363/.456, but it hasn’t mattered much because the pitching has been average (17th with a 4.39 July ERA). These are not things that will get fixed this year or next, but the farm system has promise and St. Louis has a chance to reinforce the farm in the next week. I don’t see a reason to move either Arenado (long term franchise player at this point) or someone like Contreras. The Cards committed a lot of money to a catcher who isn’t good at catching and the market knows that. I think they would net a return appropriate for a DH making $18M a year.
The Cards need to be patient and see what happens with the next wave of talent (including the package for Goldy, Edman, etc). This group centers around Masyn Winn and includes Hjerpe & McGreevy, the 2022 and 2021 1st round draft picks respectively. It’s also important to remember that their young major league talent should get better, particularly Jordan Walker (.276/.338/.442) and Nolan Gorman (.243/.325/.489). St. Louis needs to move the pieces on expiring contracts through 2024 and check back at the 2024 deadline and/or the winter meetings. It’s also a key point to establish the front office culture with President of Baseball Operations, John Mozeliak, possibly leaving and that Oliver Marmol likely won’t be the skipper in St. Louis in 2024. If Mr. Dewitt gets the front office personnel right, everything else will follow. St. Louis fans expect winning, but sometimes it takes short term concessions to set your organization up for success in the near future.
https://www.mlb.com/news/farm-system-rankings-2023-preseason
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/st-louis-cardinals/payroll/
*Stats are as of 7/23/23